WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY

13 Nov

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY – 13 November 2022

/ CSFX Analytics

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

8, NOVEMBER 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for most of the overall economic activity.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

Crude Oil Inventories (Nov), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

9 NOVEMBER 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.

Building Approval (MoM) (Oct), AUSTRALIA

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

9 NOVEMBER2022 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Building Approvals (also known as Building Permits) reports the change in the number of new building approvals issued by the government. Building approvals are an important indicator of new housing starts.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

GOLD EYES BEST WEEK IN MORE THEN TWO YEARS ON HOPES OF LESS AGGRESSIVE FED.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED:

Gold prices edged higher on Friday En route to their biggest weekly gain in more than two years as U.S. data pointing to slowing inflation boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve would slow its aggressive rate hikes.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,761.73 per ounce, as of 0610 GMT. Prices have risen 4.7% so far in the week, heading for their biggest gain since July 2020.

U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,764.50.

U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, indicating that inflation was slowing, which raised hopes that the Fed will begin scaling back its hefty rate hikes.

If the euphoria in the market continues, gold prices could rise much higher and hit the $1,762-$1,767 range in the near term, Wong said.

Market participants now see a 71.5% chance of a 50-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting.

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

GOLD is trading in Up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

Oil futures ease 2% as China widens COVID curbs

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Oil prices were on track to record another week of losses despite occasional spikes due to supply concerns and hopes that China will soon begin relaxing its tough Covid policy stance.

Indeed, China has signalled it will loosen some restrictions employed to deal with the flare-ups of infections that keep occurring despite the strict lockdowns and quarantines. Yet this only managed to push prices up temporarily, with fears that the pandemic will not disappear in China anytime soon acting as a strong headwind.

Oil posted daily declines for most of the week on these fears, only settling with a gain on Thursday after the U.S. released consumer price index data that wasn’t as bad as expected.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 0.4 percent in October from September, the CPI data showed. This compares with the expectation of a 0.6 percent increase in consumer prices month over month.

Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased by 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment, which again was lower than the 7.9 percent expected annual inflation for October.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

$1 BILLION OF CLIENT’S FUNDS MISSING AT FAILED CRYPTO FIRM

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: At least $1 billion of customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The exchange’s founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly transferred $10 billions of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.

A large portion of that total has since disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7 billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.

While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.

The financial hole was revealed in records that Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and said they were briefed on the company’s finances by top staff.

The global crypto market that has been putting on a green rally has slightly turned reddish. BTC is currently trading at $16743 and ETH at $1,253.49. BTC is down by 1.58% and ETH by 2.45% in the last 24 hours. It is unclear now whether the two-day bullish stance was a bubble and whether the market is going back to its bearish stance.

BITCOIN is trading in a down channel; a downside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

CFTC EUR SPECULATIVE NET POSITIONS (Nov), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 NOVEMBER 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for “”non-commercial”” (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analysing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether to take a long or short position.

PPI (MoM)(Oct), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 NOVEMBER 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in input prices of raw, semi-finished or finished goods and services. If input costs rise, some will be absorbed by the producer and some passed on to the consumer. Conversely, if input costs fall, some of the decline will be enjoyed as wider profit margins by the producer and some will be passed on to the consumer in the form of lower prices. Because PPI impacts consumer prices, it is watched by central bankers as part of fulfilling their mandate of price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

GDP (QoQ) (Q3) JAPAN

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

15 NOVEMBER 2022 JPY and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the JPY, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the JPY.

WAGE PRICE INDEX,(QoQ) (Q3), AUSTRALIA

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

16 NOVEMBER 2022 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING:

The Wage Price Index reports the change in the amount of money businesses and the government in Australia pay for labour, relative to the prior quarter. The figure excludes bonuses. It is an indicator of potential inflationary pressures.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

CORE CPI (MOM) (OCT), CANADA

WHEN: WHAT IT IN INFLUENCES

17 NOVEMBER 2022 CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHATS HAPPENING:

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer (excluding food and energy). The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

WALMART Inc to announce its Quarterly Results on 15 November, EPS estimated to 1.32 per share.
NVDA to announce its Quarterly Results on16 NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 1.71 per share while revenue estimated 5.8B.
TJX to announce its Quarterly Results on 16 NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.80 per share while revenue estimated 12.296B.
WSM to announce its Quarterly Results on 17 NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 3.72 per share while revenue estimated 2.149B.
CPRT to announce its Quarterly Results on 16 NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.56 per share while revenue estimated 890.411M.