Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 16 April 2023

16 Apr

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY – 16 APRIL 2023

/ CSFX Analytics

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

11 APRIL 2023 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for most of the overall economic activity.
A reading that is stronger than the forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

CPI (MoM) (Mar), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

12 APRIL 2023 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

USDZAR is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

Employment Change (Mar), AUD

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

13 APRIL 2023 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Employment Change reports the change in the number of people employed across Australia. Jobs and the income they generate is an important factors in consumer spending.

AUDUSD is trading in a downward channel. The further downside can be seen in the coming week.

As the Fed Governor indicates more rate hikes, the gold rally slows with a 2% decline.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED: Gold bulls’ fantasy ride was cut short on Friday by a sudden ramp-up in the dollar, which ended with the yellow metal’s sharpest one-day loss in three weeks.

The change in the dollar’s fortunes came after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, one of the central bank’s biggest hawks on interest rates, said he desires more monetary tightening despite evidence that inflation in the United States was coming off four-decade highs. Higher rates benefit the dollar while gold, which is an insurance asset, does not yield anything.

Gold for June delivery on New York’s Comex settled at $2,015.80 an ounce, down $39.50, or 1.9%, on the day. The session low on June gold was $2,006.20.

The spot price of gold, more closely followed than futures by some traders, got to as low as $1,992.46 in the latest session.

Until Friday’s abrupt turn, gold bulls had one of their most euphoric runs in under a week, gaining more than $52, or 2.6%, in just three sessions between Monday’s close and Thursday’s settlement.

“Over the short-term, gold could remain very volatile in both directions here,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA.

GOLD is trading in up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

After the IEA projects record demand, oil prices increase, and log weekly increases.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Oil prices were up on Friday and secured a fourth straight week of gains after the West’s energy watchdog said global demand will hit a record high this year on the back of a recovery in Chinese consumption.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) also warned that deep output cuts announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers led by Russia – a group known as OPEC+ – could exacerbate an oil supply deficit and hurt consumers.

Brent crude futures settled at $86.31 a barrel, rising 22 cents, or 0.3%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled at $82.52 a barrel, gaining 36 cents, or 0.4%.

Both contracts posted a fourth consecutive week of gains amid easing concerns over a banking crisis that struck last month and the surprise decision last week by OPEC+ to further cut output.

Brent is set to post a 1.5% weekly gain, while WTI was up 2.4% on the week. Four weeks of increases would be the longest such streak since June 2022.

In its monthly report on Friday, the IEA said world oil demand is set to grow by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to a record 101.9 million bpd, driven mostly by stronger consumption in China after the lifting of COVID restrictions there.

The IEA said the OPEC+ decision could hurt consumers and global economic recovery.

The IEA said it expected global oil supply to fall by 400,000 bpd by the end of the year, citing an expected production increase of 1 million bpd from outside of OPEC+ beginning in March versus a 1.4 million bpd decline from the producer bloc.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in up channel; a upside will be seen in the coming days.

Crypto Market Sees $55B Inflow

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM

WHAT HAPPENED: Ethereum’s price crosses $2k for the first time in a year.

Bitcoin has seen a 10% increase in the last seven days, trading at $30,838.

This week the price of Ethereum (ETH) crossed $2k for the first time in nearly one year. Expert crypto traders believe the altcoin season has begun, so investors have plenty of opportunities to make significant returns, provided they proceed cautiously.

According to data from the market tracking website, Comarkets, the global crypto market saw an in-flow of over $55 billion in the last 24 hours, putting its market share at nearly $1.3 trillion. The new milestone the most popular crypto, Bitcoin, attained contributed immensely to the new figure.

BTC trades at $30,838, with a 10% increase in the last seven days and a market cap of over half a trillion dollars. The $30k price point represents its highest point this year and since June 2022, when the Terraform Lab’s projects imploded.

Similarly, ETH trades at $2,118 after gaining over 15% in the past week. Of the top ten cryptos with the largest market cap, Solana (SOL) was the best-performing coin. SOL grew by over 23% in the last seven days while crypto traders bought and sold nearly $1 billion of the token.

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM is trading in a up channel; a upside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

CPI (YoY) (Mar), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

19 APRIL 2023 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.
A reading that is stronger than the forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

20 APRIL 2023 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the timeliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

RBA Meeting Minutes, AUD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

18 APRIL 2023 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision.
More dovish than expected minutes could be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while more hawkish than expected minutes could be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.

Core CPI (MoM) (Mar), CAD

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

18 APRIL 2023 CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer (excluding food and energy). The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability, as it excludes the volatile food and energy components.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

GDP (YoY) (Q1), CNY

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

18 APRIL 2023 CNY and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CNY, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CNY.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

TESLA, INC (TSLA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 19 APRIL 2023, EPS estimated to 0.86 per share while revenue estimated 23.729B.
JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ) to announce its Quarterly Results on 18 APRIL 2023, EPS estimated to 2.51 per share while revenue is estimated 23.622B.
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION (BAC) to announce its Quarterly Results on 18 APRIL 2023, EPS estimated to 0.81 per share while revenue estimated 25.161B.
NETFLIX, INC (NFLX) to announce its Quarterly Results on 18 APRIL 2023, EPS estimated to 2.86 per share while revenue estimated 8.175B.
MORGAN STANLEY (MS) to announce its Quarterly Results on 19 APRIL 2023 EPS estimated 1.72 per share while revenue estimated 13.966B.