Gold Muted on Mixed Fed Cues; Copper Boosted by China Rate Cuts.

Introduction

In this weekly snapshot, we explore the latest developments in the global market. We analyze the impact on gold, oil, bitcoin, and key economic indicators. Stay informed with the most recent updates.

Gold: A Muted Weekly Close

What Happened

Gold prices remained relatively unchanged on Friday due to conflicting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, copper experienced a strong weekly finish driven by stimulus measures implemented by China, the largest importer of the metal.

Gold’s Trading Range

Despite witnessing significant fluctuations throughout the week, gold mostly traded within a narrow range over the past month. Mixed signals from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. economy provided limited guidance for a breakout in either direction.

Current Status

At 20:27 ET (00:27 GMT), spot gold remained flat at $1,958.26 per ounce, while gold futures steadied at $1,970.45 per ounce. Both instruments are expected to end the week with a slight decrease ranging from 0.1% to 0.3%.

Fed’s Impact

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate during Wednesday’s announcement and signaled at least two more rate hikes later this year to combat rising inflation. However, recent U.S. economic data, including soft consumer inflation, higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims, and weak industrial production, raised concerns about the central bank’s ability to continue raising interest rates.

Future Outlook

Gold is currently trading within a downward channel, suggesting a potential decline in the coming days.

Oil: Supply Cuts and Chinese Demand Drive Gains

What Happened

Oil prices experienced an increase on Friday and posted weekly gains due to higher demand from China and ongoing supply cuts by OPEC+ members. This occurred despite concerns about the global economy and the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

Price Movement

Brent crude settled at $76.61 per barrel, rising by 94 cents, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.16 to reach $71.78 per barrel. Brent recorded a weekly gain of 2.4%, while WTI rose by 2.3%.

Chinese Demand and Output Cuts

Growing Chinese demand, evidenced by increased refinery throughput in May, contributed to the upward movement in oil prices. Additionally, voluntary output cuts implemented by OPEC+ and an additional cut by Saudi Arabia in July further supported crude prices.

Russian Minister’s Outlook

According to Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov, reaching oil prices around $80 per barrel is realistic. He also mentioned that Russian oil and gas condensate production is expected to decrease by around 20 million tonnes (400,000 barrels per day) this year, reaffirming previous expectations.

Outlook for WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is currently trading within a downward channel, indicating a potential decline in the coming days.

Bitcoin: BlackRock ETF Filing Sparks Bullish Outlook

What Happened

News of a potential Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing by investment giant BlackRock generated optimism among traders, leading to slight market movements and bullish sentiment.

BlackRock’s ETF Filing

CoinDesk reported that BlackRock plans to offer a Bitcoin ETF, with Coinbase serving as the custodian. This information was later confirmed after a filing revealed that the company’s iShares fund management unit submitted paperwork for the establishment of a spot bitcoin (BTC) ETF.

Bitcoin’s Price Recovery

Bitcoin quickly rebounded, surpassing the $25,500 level on Friday. This recovery erased losses from the previous two days when the price dropped as low as $24,860. The positive movement also provided relief to major tokens like Polygon Network’s MATIC and Cardano’s ADA, which experienced nominal gains after a two-day slide.

Impact on Bitcoin Shorts

The market strength of Bitcoin affected short positions in BTC-tracked futures. Over the past 24 hours, more than $16 million worth of short positions were liquidated. However, this figure was lower than usual due to recent significant declines, prompting traders to risk less capital than usual.

Bitcoin’s Trading Outlook

Bitcoin is currently trading within a downward channel, suggesting a potential decline in the coming days.

Key Economic Indicators

Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr), EUR

• Date: 14 June 2023
• Influences: GBP and its subsequent pairs
• What Happened: Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output from manufacturers, quarries, and utilities.

Core CPI (MoM) (May), U.S.

• Date: 13 June 2023
• Influences: USD and its subsequent pairs
• What Happened: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. It is a closely monitored figure by the central bank in maintaining price stability.

Employment Change (May), AUD

• Date: 15 June 2023
• Influences: AUD and its subsequent pairs
• What Happened: Employment Change reports the change in the number of employed individuals across Australia. It plays a significant role in consumer spending.

5 Key Events to Watch Out For

1. German PPI (MoM) (May) U.K.
   • Date: 20 June 2023
   • Influences: GBP and its subsequent pairs
   • What’s Happening: The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in input prices of raw, semi-finished, or finished goods and services.
2. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.
   • Date: 22 June 2023
   • Influences: USD and its subsequent pairs
   • What’s Happening: Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
3. RBA Meeting Minutes, AUD
   • Date: 20 June 2023
   • Influences: AUD and its subsequent pairs
   • What’s Happening: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes provide detailed insights into the bank’s recent policy-setting meeting.
4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment, NZD
   • Date: 20 June 2023
   • Influences: NZD and its subsequent pairs
   • What’s Happening: The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures changes in consumer confidence in economic activity.
5. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr), CAD
   • Date: 21 May 2023
   • Influences: CAD and its subsequent pairs
   • What’s Happening: Core Retail Sales track changes in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobile sales.

Equities to Watch in the Coming Week

Accenture PLC (ACN) Quarterly Results Announcement

On June 22, 2023, Accenture PLC (ACN) is set to announce its quarterly results. Industry analysts estimate earnings per share (EPS) of $3.10 and revenue of $16.498 billion for the quarter.

FedEx Corporation (FDX) Quarterly Results Revealed

The quarterly results for FedEx Corporation (FDX) will be unveiled on June 20, 2023. Market estimates project an EPS of $4.85 per share, with revenue expected to reach $22.545 billion.

Carnival Corporation (CCL) Quarterly Results Announcement

Carnival Corporation (CCL) has scheduled the announcement of its quarterly results for June 26, 2023. Analysts predict an EPS of -$0.34 per share, with revenue projected at $4.766 billion.

CarMax Inc. (KMX) Quarterly Results Disclosure

CarMax Inc. (KMX) plans to disclose its quarterly results on June 23, 2023. The estimated EPS is $0.79 per share, while revenue is expected to be $7.495 billion.

KB Home (KBH) Quarterly Results Announcement

KB Home (KBH) will announce its quarterly results on June 21, 2023. The estimated EPS is $1.33 per share, with revenue projected at $1.426 billion.

Top Commodities in the Coming Week

Gold Analysis: Potential Decline Expected

Gold is currently trading in a downward channel, indicating a potential decline in the upcoming days. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47.59, reflecting a neutral zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also in the neutral zone, with the MACD line and signal line intersecting. The Bollinger Bands are currently at $1,820.82, further suggesting a neutral zone. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, indicating a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at $1,820 and resistance at $1,970.

Trade Suggestion for Gold: Consider Selling

Consider selling gold at $1,957.84, setting a take profit at $1,937.96 and a stop loss at $1,977.72.

Silver Analysis: Potential Upside Expected

Silver is currently trading in an upward channel, indicating a potential upside in the coming days. The RSI stands at 54.32, reflecting a neutral position. The MACD is currently in a bullish crossover, signaling a bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, indicating a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at $21.00 per ounce and resistance at $23.50 per ounce.

Trade Suggestion for Silver: Consider Buying

Consider buying silver at $24.24, with a take profit at $24.76 and a stop loss at $23.71.

Brent Crude Oil Analysis: Potential Downside Expected

Brent Crude Oil is currently trading in a downward channel, indicating a potential downside shortly. The RSI stands at 51.54, reflecting a neutral position. The MACD is currently in a bearish crossover, indicating a bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at $75.46 and resistance at $76.75.

Trade Suggestion for Brent Crude Oil: Consider Selling

Consider selling Brent Crude Oil at $75.61, with a take profit at $74.12 and a stop loss at $76.89.

Top Cryptocurrencies in the Coming Week

BTCUSD Analysis: Potential Decline Expected

BTCUSD is currently trading in a downward channel, indicating a potential decline in the coming days. The RSI stands at 49.5, reflecting a neutral position. The MACD is currently in a bearish crossover, indicating a bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at 25,837 and resistance at 26,814.

Trade Suggestion for BTCUSD: Consider Selling

Consider selling BTCUSD at 26,595.32, with a take profit at 25,873.11 and a stop loss at 27,254.74.

Litecoin Analysis: Potential Downside Expected

Litecoin is trading in a downward channel, indicating a potential downside in the coming days. The RSI stands at 38.95, reflecting a bearish sentiment. The MACD is currently in a bearish crossover, indicating a bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at $72.82 and resistance at $77.63.

Trade Suggestion for Litecoin: Consider Selling

Consider selling Litecoin at $76.89, with a take profit of $74.82 and a stop loss of $78.66.

Top Currencies in the Coming Week

EURUSD Analysis: Potential Upside Expected

EURUSD is trading in an upward channel, indicating a potential upside in the coming days. The RSI stands at 62.64, reflecting a bullish sentiment. The MACD is currently in a bullish crossover, indicating a bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands are narrow, suggesting lower market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope upward, signaling a bullish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at 1.08596 and resistance at 1.09653.

Trade Suggestion for EURUSD: Consider Buying

Consider buying EURUSD at 1.09372, with a take profit at 1.09902 and a stop loss at 1.08962.

GBPUSD Analysis: Potential Upside Expected

GBPUSD is trading in an upward channel, indicating a potential upside in the coming days. The RSI stands at 71.1, reflecting a bullish sentiment. The MACD is currently in a bullish crossover, indicating a bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at 1.26825 and resistance at 1.28394.

Trade Suggestion for GBPUSD: Consider Buying

Consider buying GBPUSD at 1.28338, with a take profit at 1.29267 and a stop loss at 1.27619.

AUDUSD Analysis: Potential Upside Expected

AUDUSD is trading in an upward channel, indicating a potential upside in the coming days. The RSI stands at 71.08, reflecting a bullish sentiment. The MACD is currently in a bullish crossover, indicating a bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at 0.69188 and resistance at 0.68176.

Trade Suggestion for AUDUSD: Consider Buying

Consider buying AUDUSD at 0.68801, with a take profit at 0.69168 and a stop loss at 0.68472.

Top Indices in the Coming Week

Dow Jones Analysis: Potential Upside Expected

Dow Jones is trading in an upward channel, indicating a potential upside in the coming days. The RSI stands at 66.12, reflecting a bullish sentiment. The MACD is currently in a bullish crossover, indicating a bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at 34,250.51 and resistance at 34,586.98.

Trade Suggestion for Dow Jones: Consider Buying

Consider buying Dow Jones at 34,615.67, with a take profit at 34,819.70 and a stop loss at 34,460.23.

FTSE 100 Analysis: Potential Downside Expected

FTSE 100 is trading in a downward channel, indicating a potential downside in the coming days. The RSI stands at 47.73, reflecting a neutral position. The MACD is currently in a bearish crossover, indicating a bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands are wide, suggesting high market volatility. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages both slope downward, signaling a bearish trend. However, the 100-day moving average moves sideways, suggesting a period of consolidation. Key levels to monitor in the near term are support at 7,560.49 and resistance at 7,639.99.

Trade Suggestion for FTSE 100: Consider Selling

Consider selling FTSE 100 at 7,630.70, with a take profit at 7,576.30 and a stop loss at 7,682.50.

conclusion

In conclusion, these are the equities, commodities, cryptocurrencies, currencies, and indices to watch in the coming week. Consider the provided trade suggestions based on the analysis and key levels for each asset. Please note that trading involves risk, and it is important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

FAQ

1. What do the terms “support” and “resistance” mean?

• Support refers to a price level at which an asset tends to stop falling and may start to rise due to increased buying activity. It acts as a floor for the asset’s price.
• Resistance, on the other hand, is a price level at which an asset tends to stop rising and may start to decline due to increased selling activity. It acts as a ceiling for the asset’s price.

2. How should I interpret the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators?

• The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100 and is often used to identify overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions in an asset. Readings above 50 generally indicate bullish sentiment, while readings below 50 suggest bearish sentiment.
• The MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. A bullish crossover occurs when the MACD line (fast line) crosses above the signal line (slow line), indicating a potential upward trend. Conversely, a bearish crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, suggesting a potential downward trend.

3. How can I use the Bollinger Bands to understand market volatility?

• Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: the middle band (usually a simple moving average), and an upper and lower band that represent two standard deviations from the middle band. When the Bollinger Bands are narrow, it suggests low market volatility, while wider bands indicate higher volatility. Traders often look for price breakouts or reversals when the price approaches the upper or lower bands.

4. What do the moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) signify?

• Moving averages are calculated by taking the average price of an asset over a specified period. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are commonly used to identify trends and support/resistance levels. When a shorter-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a longer-term moving average (e.g., 200-day), it may indicate a bullish trend, while a crossover in the opposite direction may suggest a bearish trend. Sideway movement may be indicated when moving averages are flat or crossing each other frequently.

5. Are the trade suggestions provided guaranteed to be profitable?

• No, the trade suggestions provided are based on technical analysis and key levels, but trading always carries a level of risk. It is essential to conduct your own research, consider fundamental factors, and use risk management strategies when making trading decisions. The trade suggestions provided here are for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.