Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 19 August 2023
19 Aug 2023
Canadian Dollar’s Fate Hangs by a Thread: Core Retail Sales Report Reveals All.
Welcome to a world where financial foresight is your greatest ally. Embark on a journey through imminent market events that wield the power to shape currencies, commodities, equities, and indices. This compilation of vital insights equips you with the knowledge to make astute decisions in the dynamic realm of trading.
What’s Unfolding in the Manufacturing Sector?
The upcoming Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report is anticipated to impact the British Pound (GBP) and its related currency pairs. This diffusion index draws insights from surveys conducted among various manufacturing firms across the region. A reading above fifty is indicative of an expanding manufacturing sector, while a reading below fifty signifies contraction.
Crucial Insights for Traders
Currency traders keen on predicting market trends look to this report for guidance. If the actual reading surpasses market forecasts, it can positively impact the Euro (EUR), bolstering its value. Conversely, if the reading falls short of expectations, it might have a bearish effect on the Euro. As such, market participants are encouraged to keep a close eye on this essential economic indicator to navigate their trading strategies effectively.
U.S. Building Permits Data Set to Influence USD and its Subsequent Pairs on Aug 23, 2023
Understanding Building Permits and Their Significance
As August 23, 2023 approaches, the Building Permits report is poised to have a substantial influence on the United States Dollar (USD) and its associated currency pairs. This report quantifies the variation in the number of new building permits that have been issued by the government. Notably, building permits are an invaluable indicator for projecting forthcoming housing starts.
Navigating Currency Markets Using Building Permits Data
For traders delving into the world of currency trading, the Building Permits data serves as a navigational tool. Should the actual reading surpass the projected figures, it could have a bullish effect on the USD, potentially driving its value upwards. Conversely, if the actual reading falls short of predictions, it may contribute to a bearish trend for the USD. As a result, traders are advised to be attentive to this data set to make informed trading decisions.
Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2) Report Set to Impact NZD and its Subsequent Pairs on Aug 23, 2023
Analyzing Retail Sales for Trading Insights
With August 23, 2023 on the horizon, the Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2) report is poised to exert its influence on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the currency pairs connected to it. This report serves as a gauge for measuring the shift in the aggregate sales value within the country’s retail sector. Notably, it holds a position of significance as a key indicator of consumer spending, accounting for a substantial portion of overall economic activity.
Unveiling the Trading Potential of Retail Sales Data
Currency traders have their eyes set on the Retail Sales report for potential trading opportunities. Should the actual reading outpace the predicted figures, the NZD may experience a bullish surge, boosting its value. Conversely, an actual reading falling short of the projected values could result in a bearish trajectory for the NZD. To optimize trading decisions, market participants are encouraged to pay heed to this report’s release.
Aug 25, 2023: Tokyo Core CPI Release to Impact JPY and its Subsequent Pairs
A Deeper Dive into the Tokyo Core CPI
Mark your calendars for August 25, 2023, as the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is slated for release, likely to impact the Japanese Yen (JPY) and its affiliated currency pairs. This index zeroes in on the changes in prices of goods and services from the consumer perspective within the greater Tokyo Metropolitan area. Of note, central banks consider this figure crucial in their quest to maintain price stability, given its exclusion of volatile components like fresh food.
Decoding the Market Implications
Currency traders are keen to decipher the Tokyo Core CPI’s impact on the market. A reading that overshoots market predictions might usher in a bullish wave for the JPY, bolstering its value. Conversely, a weaker reading than anticipated could herald a bearish trend for the JPY. For traders seeking strategic insight, the Tokyo Core CPI report serves as a valuable tool for informed trading decisions.
Jun 2023: Core Retail Sales (MoM) Data and its Impact on CAD and its Subsequent Pairs
Exploring the Core Retail Sales Data
As the date nears, June 2023’s Core Retail Sales (MoM) report is poised to leave its imprint on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and related currency pairs. This report dissects the shift in aggregate sales value across the retail landscape, excluding automobile sales. An integral gauge of consumer spending, it plays a pivotal role in reflecting the broader economic activity.
Charting Trading Paths through Core Retail Sales
Currency traders find themselves attuned to the Core Retail Sales report’s release for actionable insights. An actual reading surpassing predictions could catalyze a bullish trend for the CAD, elevating its worth. Conversely, a reading below projected values may trigger a bearish trajectory for the CAD. As a guiding light for trading decisions, this report holds significant weight in the trading landscape.
Equities to Watch: Earnings Reports in the Spotlight
Earnings on the Horizon: A Look at Noteworthy Companies
In the forthcoming week, the equities market is set to buzz with anticipation as several prominent companies prepare to unveil their quarterly results. Mark these dates on your calendar:
- NVIDIA CORPORATION (NVDA): On August 23, 2023, NVDA is expected to share its Quarterly Results. Analysts estimate an EPS of 2.08 per share, accompanied by an estimated revenue of 11.14 billion.
- INTUIT INC. (INTU): August 24, 2023, will witness the unveiling of INTU’s Quarterly Results. Market forecasts predict an EPS of 1.43 per share, along with an estimated revenue of 2.641 billion.
- MEDTRONIC PLC. (MDT): The Quarter’s Results from MDT are eagerly awaited on August 22, 2023. Analysts project an EPS of 1.11 per share and estimated revenue of 7.566 billion.
- MARVEL TECHNOLOGY, INC. (MRVL): August 25, 2023, will bring forth MRVL’s Quarterly Results. Market experts anticipate an EPS of 0.32 per share, coupled with an estimated revenue of 1.33 billion.
- DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR): On August 25, 2023, DLTR is scheduled to reveal its Quarterly Results. Analysts project an EPS of 0.87 per share, accompanied by an estimated revenue of 7.182 billion.
Stay attuned to these earnings releases for insights into the financial health of these companies and potential market movements.
Key Commodities Set for Movement: Insights for the Upcoming Days
A Glimpse into Gold’s Trajectory
Amidst the dynamics of the market, gold takes center stage with its potential for movement. Current trends indicate a downward trajectory in gold’s value. The RSI stands at 27.57, positioning it within the selling zone. The MACD echoes the sentiment, portraying a negative crossover between its line and the signal line. Despite this, the Bollinger Bands indicate a reduced level of volatility.
Navigating Gold’s Movement
As gold trades below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, traders are advised to observe key levels for potential action. Support is anticipated at $1884.02, while resistance is projected at $1912.98. To capitalize on this scenario, a trade suggestion suggests an entry at $1868.99, a take profit at $1829.56, and a stop loss at $1900.20.
A Glimpse into Silver’s Trajectory
A similar narrative unfolds in the silver market, where a downward channel is projected. The RSI currently rests at 39.72, signaling the selling zone. Bearish sentiment is echoed by the MACD’s negative crossover. Notably, the Bollinger Bands suggest heightened market volatility.
Navigating Silver’s Movement
With both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping downward, traders should tread carefully. Support is anticipated at $22.18 per ounce, while resistance is projected at $22.99 per ounce. To capture potential gains, a trade suggestion advises an entry at $21.94, a take profit at $21.23, and a stop loss at $22.48.
Brent Crude Oil: An Upside in the Offing
In the realm of commodities, Brent Crude Oil charts an upward trajectory. The RSI sits at 55.23, indicative of bullish sentiments. Although the MACD showcases a negative crossover, the Bollinger Bands suggest moderate volatility.
Navigating Brent Crude Oil’s Movement
With both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trending upward, traders may find opportunities. Support is positioned at 82.55, while resistance stands at 84.95. To harness this momentum, a trade suggestion proposes an entry at 86.15, a take profit at 89.03, and a stop loss at 84.35.
Cryptocurrency Insights: Anticipating Movements in the Coming Week
BTCUSD: A Closer Look at Bitcoin
The crypto realm is abuzz with insights into BTCUSD’s potential trajectory. A down channel is forecasted, implying a forthcoming decline. The RSI signals bearish sentiment at 17.68, while the MACD’s negative crossover reinforces the bearish outlook. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands suggest reduced volatility.
Deciphering Bitcoin’s Path
As both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages slope downward, the market hints at caution. Potential support lies at 25623.20, with resistance at 27064.90. For strategic gains, a trade suggestion advocates entry at 24974.44, take profit at 23532.75, and stop loss at 26199.88.
Litecoin: Unveiling Possibilities
Litecoin’s path beckons with a downward channel, hinting at a forthcoming decrease. The RSI’s bearish indication at 16.64 aligns with the negative MACD crossover. Amidst this, the Bollinger Bands point toward diminished market volatility.
Navigating Litecoin’s Terrain
Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages slope downward, warranting careful consideration. Expected support stands at 61.68, while resistance is projected at 67.26. To maximize potential benefits, a trade suggestion recommends entry at 58.89, taking profit at 51.75, and stopping loss at 65.09.
Currency Forecast: Insights into the Week Ahead
EURUSD: Delving into Euro-Dollar Dynamics
The week ahead promises movements for EURUSD, with a downward channel in sight. The RSI, standing at 36.89, signals bearish sentiments. A negative MACD crossover reinforces this, while the Bollinger Bands hint at reduced market volatility.
Unraveling EURUSD’s Potential
The downward slope of both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages demands strategic maneuvering. Notable levels to watch include support at 1.0840 and resistance at 1.0957. For calculated moves, a trade suggestion proposes entry at 1.0781, take profit at 1.0655, and a stop loss at 1.0879.
GBPUSD: Insights into Pound-Dollar Trends
GBPUSD’s trajectory points toward a downward channel. The RSI, at 46.61, aligns with bullish indications. A negative MACD crossover offers a bearish note, while the Bollinger Bands suggest tempered market volatility.
Navigating GBP USD’s Dynamics
As both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trend upward, strategic positioning is encouraged. Notable levels include support at 1.2662 and resistance at 1.2780. For calculated actions, a trade suggestion proposes entry at 1.2811, take profit at 1.2947, and a stop loss at 1.2718.
AUDUSD: Unveiling Australian Dollar Trajectory
AUDUSD’s path unveils a downward channel, suggesting forthcoming decreases. The RSI, at 27.62, signals bearish sentiments. A negative MACD crossover aligns, while wide Bollinger Bands point to heightened market volatility.
Navigating AUD-USD’s Route
With both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages slanting downward, traders are advised to tread carefully. Notable levels include support at 0.6365 and resistance at 0.6455. For calculated trades, a suggestion posits entry at 0.6335, take profit at 0.6228, and a stop loss at 0.6420.
Index Insights: Anticipating Market Movements in the Week Ahead
Dow Jones: Traversing Dow’s Path
Amidst market dynamics, Dow Jones shows an upward channel, hinting at a potential downside. The RSI, standing at 36.05, echoes bearish sentiments. A negative MACD crossover aligns, while the Bollinger Bands suggest muted market volatility.
Navigating Dow Jones’ Movement
With both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trending upward, strategic positioning becomes key. Noteworthy levels to monitor are support at 34331.86 and resistance at 34883.73. For calculated trades, a suggestion suggests entry at 34147.90, taking profit at 33636.91, and a stop loss at 34556.70.
FTSE 100: Insights into FTSE’s Trajectory
In the coming week, FTSE 100 charts a downward channel, signaling an anticipated decrease. The RSI, at 28.04, aligns with bearish sentiments. A negative MACD crossover echoes this, while wide Bollinger Bands suggest heightened market volatility.
Navigating FTSE 100’s Direction
With both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trending downward, strategic caution is advised. Notable levels include support at 7218.3 and resistance at 7324.4. For calculated trades, a suggestion recommends entry at 7178.7, taking profit at 7047.5, and a stop loss at 7281.4.
In the world of finance, knowledge is power. Keep these insights in mind as you navigate the dynamic landscape, making informed decisions to harness the potential gains.
Market Recap: Weekly Insights into Gold, Crude Oil, and Bitcoin Trends
In this comprehensive market recap, we delve into the recent trends and shifts in the prices of gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin, shedding light on the factors influencing these markets. From the challenges faced by gold to the impact of Chinese buying on crude oil prices, and the roller-coaster ride of Bitcoin, we cover it all.
Gold’s Battle: Testing the $1,900 Boundaries
What Sparked the Challenge?
Gold, often considered a safe haven, has encountered a rocky road lately. The perception that gold had comfortably nestled above $1,900 is being put to the test as the price of this precious metal has witnessed lower monthly milestones and sustained its fourth consecutive weekly loss.
The Current Scenario
The most-active December contract for gold futures on New York’s Comex closed at $1,916.50 per ounce, gaining a mere $1.30, or 0.01%, for the day. However, the week has seen a loss of just over $30, approximately 1.5%. With the spot price hovering around $1,800, analysts speculate about the sustainability of gold’s position above $1,900.
Factors at Play
Analysts are attributing this uncertainty to the overpowering rally of the dollar at the start of the week, causing pressure on gold. Ed Moya, an analyst at online trading platform OANDA, notes that while spot gold has dipped below $1,900, the momentum selling has moderated. Traders are closely watching the $1,900 level for gold futures. Additionally, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, and the resultant spike in interest rates, have added to the challenges faced by gold.
The technical analysis suggests that gold is trading in a down channel, indicating a possible downside in the coming days. As the market continues to evolve, the fate of gold remains uncertain, with all eyes on its resilience against mounting pressures.
Oil’s Ascent: A Glimpse into China’s Impact
The Driving Force
Brent crude oil, an essential global commodity, has witnessed a seven-week rise, capturing the attention of investors and analysts alike. The focal point of this surge has been China, a dominant player in the oil market.
The China Factor
The direction of crude oil prices in the near future hinges on China’s actions. Investors are eagerly awaiting signs of a substantial increase in China’s oil purchases or positive economic indicators that demonstrate China’s capability to stimulate the market.
The Recent Trajectory
The recent trading session witnessed an upward movement in crude prices, continuing the rebound from the preceding day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $81.25 per barrel, marking a 1% increase. However, the market’s attempt to recover falls short in compensating for the losses endured earlier in the week.
Technical analysis points to a trading pattern for BRENT CRUDE OIL that suggests an upcoming upside movement. As the market dynamics intertwine with China’s actions, the upcoming days promise intriguing developments in the crude oil market.
Bitcoin’s Tumultuous Ride: Navigating Macro Factors
The Bitcoin Plunge
The world of cryptocurrencies witnessed a sharp downturn as the price of Bitcoin plummeted by approximately 8% within a mere 10 minutes on August 17. This plunge drove Bitcoin’s price to levels not seen since June 20, raising concerns among investors.
Unraveling the Whiplash
Bitcoin’s price dipped as low as $25,166, experiencing a 10% loss, before briefly recovering beyond the $26,300 threshold. The crypto market saw nearly $820 million worth of long positions liquidated during this tumultuous period.
The Macroeconomic Influences
Multiple macroeconomic factors converged to trigger this drastic drop. The bankruptcy of Evergrande, concerns surrounding SpaceX, and the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC all contributed to the market’s instability.
The Ripple Effect
As Bitcoin’s price spiraled downward, retail traders entered the scene, closing their long positions to shield themselves from further losses. This mass liquidation intensified the market turmoil and highlighted the interconnectedness of various factors impacting Bitcoin’s price.
Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently trading in a down channel, which could indicate a potential downside in the coming days. The intricate interplay of market forces and external influences keeps Bitcoin enthusiasts on the edge of their seats.
Economic Insights: Key Indicators and Their Impact
GDP (QoQ), EUR: Unveiling Economic Health
On August 16, 2023, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the European Union (EUR) emerged as a crucial determinant of economic health. GDP, the yardstick for measuring the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services within an economy, took center stage. The impacts reverberated through the forex market, influencing GBP and its related currency pairs. Notably, the EURGBP currency pair saw a rise, indicative of its trading in an upward channel. Investors and traders keenly observed the signals, foreseeing further upside potential in the approaching week.
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul), U.S.: A Glimpse into Consumer Spending
On August 15, 2023, the Retail Sales data for the United States (U.S.) gained prominence, reflecting shifts in consumer spending patterns. This metric, which gauges changes in the total value of retail sales across the nation, holds significant weight in assessing overall economic activity. The repercussions extended to the financial realm, impacting the USD and its correlated pairs. Against this backdrop, the USDZAR currency pair signaled an upward trajectory, indicating an ongoing upward movement. Market participants anticipated additional gains in the ensuing week.
RBA Meeting Minutes, AUD: Insights into Monetary Policy
August 15, 2023, marked the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. This detailed record of the central bank’s latest policy-setting meeting provided valuable insights into the economic conditions influencing the rate decision. The implications rippled through the financial landscape, particularly affecting the Australian dollar (AUD) and its related currency pairs. Noteworthy was the AUDUSD currency pair, reflecting a trading pattern in a downward channel. This pattern pointed toward potential downside movements in the coming week, prompting investors and traders to adopt a cautious stance.