WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY – 30 October 2022

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & PRICE MARKET STRATEGY – 30 October 2022

Weekly Technical Analysis

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

    CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct), U.K.

    WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

25th OCTOBER 2022                                                    GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions.

GBPTRY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

    Services PMI (Oct), U.S.

    WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

     23rd OCTOBER 2022                                                    USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. 

USDZAR is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

CPI (QoQ) (Q3), AUSTRALIA 

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

25th OCTOBER 2022                                                  AUD and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

AUDNZD is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold down 1% as dollar, yields rise on Fed rate-hike bets

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Gold fell more than 1% on Friday as the dollar and bond yields climbed after data showed underlying inflation pressures remained high, cementing expectations around another hefty rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve next week.

Spot gold fell 1.3% to $1,641.30 per ounce by 1:43 p.m. ET (1743 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled down 1.3% at $1,644.8.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department said.

“There is concern that core PCE at 0.5% monthly or 6% on an annual basis will keep the Fed relatively more aggressive and a slowdown in hikes will come later rather than sooner,” said Tai Wong, a senior trader at Heraeus Precious Metals in New York.

Gold has been a little disappointing this week given the huge bond rally and the dollar moving lower – which should have seen it head towards $1,700, he added.

GOLD is trading in down channel; an downside will be seen in the coming days.

Oil futures ease 1% as China widens COVID curbs  

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED:  

Oil prices eased about 1% on Friday after top crude importer China widened its COVID-19 curbs, though the crude benchmarks were poised for a weekly gain on supply concerns and surprisingly strong economic data.

Brent futures fell $1.19, or 1.2%, to settle at $95.77 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.18, or 1.3%, to $87.90.

U.S. gasoline futures dropped about 3%, while U.S. diesel futures rose about 5% to their highest since mid-June.

“Diesel (was) still (the) strongest component of complex (with) shorts being squeezed out of the November contract ahead of Monday expiry,” analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said.

For the week, Brent rose about 2% and WTI was up about 3%.

Chinese cities ramped up COVID-19 curbs on Thursday, sealing up buildings and locking down districts after China registered 1,506 new COVID infections on Oct. 27, the National Health Commission said, up from 1,264 new cases a day earlier. 

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

Crypto Analyst Warns About the End Game for BTC and ETH Bears

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Popular crypto trader and analyst Jason Pizzino is looking into the present market conditions and the probability of the market already hitting rock bottom. Pizzino said in a recent YouTube video that cryptos including Bitcoin and Ethereum are unlikely to fall to their bottom levels.

Pizzino is a prominent trader with over 278k subscribers on YouTube. He stated that if BTC crosses its highest value in August, the probability of it falling to $10,000 is meager.

Pizzino stated that it is not looking good for the $10,000 Bitcoin bears. Speaking about Ethereum, he stated that ETH is staying robust and the chances of it hitting $500 are unlikely.

He stated that ETH is being pumped away and the consolidation is above the previous zone. He also added that it is better to forget ETH hitting the $300-$500 range. Pizzino highlighted that the extreme bears are in the process of getting absolutely crushed.

The global crypto market that has been putting on a green rally has slightly turned reddish. BTC is currently trading at $20,184 and ETH at $1,502. BTC is down by 2.3% and ETH by 3% in the last 24 hours. It is unclear at the moment whether the two-day bullish stance was a bubble and whether the market is going back to its bearish stance.

BITCOIN is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.   

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

     BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov), U.K.

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

03rd NOVEMBER 2022                                                          GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

      Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct), U.S.

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

04th NOVEMBER 2022                                                       USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. 

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

     Building Permits (MoM) (Sep), CANADA 

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

03rd NOVEMBER 2022                                                          CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Trade Balance (Sep), AUSTRALIA 

WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

02nd NOVEMBER 2022                                                     AUD and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

Central Bank reserves (USD), RUSSIA

WHEN:                                                                          WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

03rd NOVEMBER 2022                                                    RUB and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Foreign Exchange Reserves are the foreign assets held or controlled by the country central bank. The reserves are made of gold or a specific currency.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the RUB, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the RUB.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

  1. Berkshire Hathaway A (BRKa) to announce its Quarterly Results on 31st OCTOBER 2022, EPS estimated to 4518.39 per share while revenue estimated 74.90B. 
  2. Pfizer (PFE) to announce its Quarterly Results on 01st NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 1.44 per share while revenue estimated 21.33B.
  3. AMD (AMD) to announce its Quarterly Results on 01st NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.7955 per share while revenue estimated 6.68B.
  4. Qualcomm (QCOM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 02nd NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 3.15 per share while revenue estimated 11.35B.
  5. Hershey Co (HSY) to announce its Quarterly Results on 04th NOVEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 2.10 per share while revenue estimated 2.61B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

     GOLD

GOLD is trading in down channel; an downside will be seen in the coming days. 

SILVER

SILVER is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days. 

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

     BTCUSD

BTCUSD is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days. 

LITECOIN

LITECOIN is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.  

 TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

     EURUSD

EURUSD is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

EURJPY

EURJPY is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

     DOW JONES

DOW JONES is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

     FTSE 100

FTSE 100 is trading in an up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

     DATA WATCH

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