WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 26 SEPTEMBER 2021

Technical Analysis

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 26 SEPTEMBER 2021

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

    Manufacturing PMI, U.K.

    WHEN:                                               WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

23rd SEPTEMBER 2021                            GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

GBPJPY is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

     Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

     WHEN:                                              WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

     23rd SEPTEMBER 2021                           USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

USDCHF is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug), CANADA

WHEN:                                              WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

21st SEPTEMBER 2021                           CAD and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT HAPPENED: The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) measures the change in selling prices for new homes. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.

GBPCAD is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold Flat on Week but Deeply Bruised After Fed Taper Plan

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED: For the record, it ended flat on the week. Yet, gold wouldn’t fool anyone on what prompt sentiment is for the yellow metal.

U.S. gold futures’ most active contract, December, settled down $1.90, or 0.1%, at $1,751.70 per ounce on New York’s Comex.

For the week though, it was virtually flat, in fact settling 30 cents higher from last Friday.

But to those tracking the market, especially the long investors who have repeatedly been burned following optimistic forecasts of the past nine months, the real weekly comparison should have been against last Wednesday.

That was the day when gold lost 2%, its most since early August, as U.S. bond yields spiked and the dollar girded higher as well on speculation of hawkish Federal Reserve action over its economic stimulus and lower-for-longer interest rates.

GOLD is trading is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.

Oil Nears 3-Year High on Bets Over Tight Winter Supply

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Winter may be months away, but markets being markets have the habit of forerunning things. Oil was running on that sentiment on Friday as crude prices closed up for the fifth week in a row, after nearing three-year highs during the session.

“When winter comes rolling in, there’s going to be a huge competition for pipeline space,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Chicago’s Price Futures Group.

The combination of a slow comeback in U.S. oil production after last month’s Hurricane Ida, along with a shortage of butane to add to winter blends of gasoline “is creating a situation that is very bullish for petroleum and natural gas markets,” Flynn added.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. oil, settled up 68 cents, or 0.9%, at $73.98 per barrel. For the week, WTI rose 2.8%.

London-traded Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, settled up 84 cents, or 1.1%, at $78.09. For the week, Brent gained 3.7%. It was a fifth straight week of gains for WTI and a fourth in five weeks for Brent, which are both up about 50% on the year.

WTI CRUDE OIL is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

Deutsche Bank analyst: Bitcoin will be ‘ultra-volatile,’ but it’s here to stay

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN 

WHAT HAPPENED: Marion Laboure, an analyst at Deutsche Bank’s research division, said she can envision Bitcoin taking the role of digital gold in the future: lasting for centuries and largely not controlled by the government.

In an update to Deutsche Bank’s website on “what’s next” for the largest banking institution in Germany, Laboure said she could “potentially see Bitcoin to become the 21st century digital gold,” but warned investors against the crypto asset’s volatility. According to the analyst, most Bitcoin (BTC) purchases are made for investments and speculation rather than keeping the coins for a medium of exchange.

BTCUSD is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.   

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

     GDP (YoY) (Q2), U.K.

 WHEN:                                                              WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 30th SEPTEMBER 2021                                    GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. 

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

      Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug), U.S.

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

27th SEPTEMBER 2021                                            USD and its subsequent 

                                                                              Pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Unemployment Change (Sep), GERMANY

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

30th SEPTEMBER 2021                                     EUR and its subsequent 

                                                                             Pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.

GDP (MoM) (Jul), CANADA

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

1st OCTOBER 2021                                            CAD and its subsequent 

                                                                              Pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. Canada releases fresh GDP data on a monthly basis.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

CPI (YoY) (Sep), EURO ZONE

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

1st OCTOBER 2021                                            EUR and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Micron (MU) to announce its Quarterly Results on 28th SEPTEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 2.33 per share while revenue estimated 8.22B. 

2. IHS Markit Ltd (INFO) to announce its Quarterly Results on 28th SEPTEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 0.827 per share while revenue estimated 1.17B.

3. Concentrix (CNXC) to announce its Quarterly Results on 27th SEPTEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 2.24 per share while revenue estimated 1.38B.

4. CarMax (KMX) to announce its Quarterly Results on 30th SEPTEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 1.84 per share while revenue estimated 6.7B.

5. Jefferies Financial (JEF) to announce its Quarterly Results on 30th SEPTEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 0.705 per share while revenue estimated 1.39B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

GOLD

GOLD is trading is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel. 

SILVER

SILVER is trading is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI CRUDE OIL is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

BTCUSD

BTCUSD is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.

ETHEREUM

ETHEREUM is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.   

 TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

EURUSD 

EURUSD is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.

EURJPY

EURJPY is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel. 

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

HANG SENG

HANG SENG is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.

FTSE 100

FTSE 100 is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen if not able to break out the channel.

DATA WATCH

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