Weekly Technical Analysis & Weekly Market Strategy

04 Sep

Weekly Technical Analysis & Weekly Market Strategy – 05 September 2022

/ CSFX Analytics

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Manufacturing PMI (Aug), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

01^st SEPTEMBER 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

GBPCAD is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

CB Consumer Confidence (Aug), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

30^th AUGUST 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

USDSEK is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul), AUSTRALIA

WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

28^th AUGUST 2022 AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

AUDUSD is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold Down 3rd Week in Row as U.S. Jobs Suggest More Painful Fed Hikes

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED:

There are just about three weeks left to the next Federal Reserve decision on rates. Yet it may feel like the longest three weeks to gold bulls who have seen only red almost day after day of recent trading.

The benchmark gold futures contract on New York’s Comex, December, settled Friday’s trade down $13.30, or 0.8%, at $1,722.60 per ounce. Prior to that, it was down five sessions in a row, after its last positive close of $1,771.40 on August 25.

For the current week itself, December gold was down 1.6%, adding to the back-to-back slide of 0.7% and 2.9% in the last two weeks. Gold futures have also fallen six months in a row since its last positive close of $1,954 in January, losing almost 12% in that stretch.

Worse than futures were the spot price of bullion, which is more closely followed than futures by some traders. Spot gold was up $12.14, or 0.7%, to trade at just $1,709.78 by 16:00 ET (20:00) on Friday.

Gold’s rebound for Friday came after the U.S. Labor Department reported a slightly higher-than-expected unemployment rate for August in its non-farm payrolls report, despite citing more new jobs for the month than forecast by economists.

GOLD is trading in the down channel; an downside will be seen in the coming days.

Oil Sees Worst Week in Five from China COVID, Iran Deal Threat

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED:

It’s hard to imagine oil having its worst week in five just before the start of an OPEC meeting. Yet, as the saying goes, “it is what it is.”

The lockdown of nearly 18 million people in China’s tech hub Shenzhen over a new Covid fright pulled crude futures down from Friday’s highs that initially drove both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude up more than 3% on the day. That left both crude benchmarks down more than 6% for the week, their most dismal showing since the week ended July 29.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled up 26 cents, or 0.3%, at $86.87 per barrel, after a session peak at $89.61.

Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for oil, settled Friday’s trade up 66 cents, or 0.7%, at $93.02 per barrel, after a session high at $95.28.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel; an downside will be seen in the coming days.

Litecoin Climbs 10% As Investors Gain Confidence

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

LITECOIN

WHAT HAPPENED:

Litecoin was trading at $60.320 by 10:36 (14:36 GMT) on the Investing.com Index on Friday, up 10.15% on the day. It was the largest one-day percentage gain since June 19.

The move upwards pushed Litecoin’s market cap up to $4.238B, or 0.42% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its highest, Litecoin’s market cap was $25.609B.

Litecoin had traded in a range of $56.540 to $60.320 in the previous twenty-four hours.

Over the past seven days, Litecoin has seen a rise in value, as it gained 4.87%. The volume of Litecoin traded in the twenty-four hours to time of writing was $596.600M or 0.95% of the total volume of all cryptocurrencies. It has traded in a range of $51.8300 to $60.3200 in the past 7 days.

At its current price, Litecoin is still down 85.64% from its all-time high of $420.00 set on December 12, 2017.

LITECOIN is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

Composite PMI (Aug), U.K.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

05^th SEPTEMBER 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the both sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Services PMI (Aug), U.S.

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

06^thSEPTEMBER 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

GDP (QoQ) (Q3), GERMANY

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

07^th SEPTEMBER 2022 EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Ivey PMI (Aug), CANADA

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

07^th SEPTEMBER 2022 CAD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

GDP (QoQ) (Q2), JAPAN

WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

07^th SEPTEMBER 2022 JPY and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

DocuSign (DOCU) to announce its Quarterly Results on 05^th SEPTEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.4262 per share while revenue estimated 602.72M.
GameStop Corp (GME) to announce its Quarterly Results on 07^thSEPTEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to -0.415 per share while revenue estimated 1.27B.
AstroNova (ALOT) to announce its Quarterly Results on 07^thSEPTEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.05 per share while revenue estimated 30.67M.
Hooker Furniture (HOFT) to announce its Quarterly Results on 08^thSEPTEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.44 per share while revenue estimated 159.09M.
Kroger (KR) to announce its Quarterly Results on 09^th SEPTEMBER 2022, EPS estimated to 0.7792 per share while revenue estimated 34.21B.