Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 03 April 2022
03 Apr 2022
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change U.S.
WHEN:
30th March 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
USD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients.
USD/AUD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
GDP (QoQ) (Q4), U.K. WHEN:
31st March 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: GDP measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
GBP/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, Japan WHEN:
01st April 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
JPY and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index reports the level of business conditions amongst large firms within the Japanese manufacturing sector. On the index, a negative reading points to deteriorating conditions; whereas a reading above zero indicates conditions are improving.
JPY/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Germany WHEN:
01st April 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
EUR and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: PMI measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction.
EUR/CAD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming weeks.
Gold retreats from $1950 post – NFP, strong greenback, and high US yields
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED: Chicago Gold futures slid 1.55% as the second quarter begins. It suffered heavy losses at the beginning of the week amid surging US Treasury bond yields but managed to stage a rebound mid-week. With the greenback starting to gather strength ahead of the week, gold failed to extend its recovery, finishing 1.56% below previous week’s close.
Market participants will also watch the developments surrounding the Russia – Ukraine conflict. Russia announced on Thursday that it will force gas purchases to be made in rouble. If the west ramps up sanctions and tensions re-escalate with Russia turning aggressive against Ukraine, investors could start seeking refuge in gold. The precious metal should find demand in a risk-averse atmosphere, although the dollar’s valuation is likely to be the primary factor in influencing gold’s price action.
The interest rate hikes by the Fed alongwith rising inflation and geopolitical risks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will also factored into the future of gold’s prices.
Chicago gold futures is currently trading within a descending triangle with the potential of a breakdown.
Oil witness biggest weekly losses as stockpile releases.
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED: Price of Chicago WTI crude oil futures declined 12.84% to close at $99.27, below the ominous-
$100 mark. This marks the largest one-week loss in nearly two years. Crude oil prices declined on Friday on the backdrop of the largest-ever release of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) of the US and other coordinated release by International Energy Agency (IEA) members. However, the SPR release cannot balance the market and offset the global supply issue, so any relieved are temporary.
Further tightening of lockdown measures in major Chinese economic zone Shanghai, recent positive commentary from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov regarding progress in Russo-Ukraine peace talks also weighed on oil prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s struggle to lift output in accordance with the output quota, registering an increase of a meagre 90k barrels per day.
Crude oil future prices outlook will depend on the ongoing peace talk between Russia and Ukraine alongwith the OPEC+’s production increase and COVID induced lockdowns worldwide.
Chicago WTI crude oil futures is currently trading in a downward channel until there is a trend reversal.
Bitcoin ends above $45000, Altcoins outperform
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
BITCOIN
WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin prices returned above $45,000 on Friday as volatility faded. Alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) were also higher on Friday. Ether was up 4% over the past 24 hours compared to Solana’s 9% rise and 1% rise of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price is expected to continue its rally despite a bearish performance this week. Historically, April is one of the best -performing months for Bitcoin. In the bitcoin futures market, an uptick in short liquidations occurred over the past 24 hours because of the cryptocurrency’s price jump. Still, the ratio of buy/sell volume was slightly negative on Friday, indicating low conviction among crypto traders despite BTC’s price rise.
Bitcoin is currently trading in an ascending triangle until there is a breakout.
Composite PMI, U.K. WHEN:
05th April 2022
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The composite PMI measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the both sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as a positive/bullish sign for the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as a negative/bearish sign for GBP.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, U.S.
WHEN:
05th April 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
USD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report on business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives on over 62 different industries.
A reading above 50% indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50% indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contractive. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally positive/ bullish for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative/bearish for the USD.
Construction PMI, U.K.
WHEN:
06th April 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by the construction firms throughout the country. A reading above 50 suggests that the construction sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction in the construction sector.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally positive/bullish for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative/bearish for the GBP.
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, Canada
WHEN:
06th April 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
CAD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results conducted on companies throughout the country. A reading above 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive/bullish for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative/bearish for the CAD.
Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. WHEN:
07th April 2022
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Initial jobless claims measure the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the timeliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive/bullish for the USD.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
- ZoomInfo (ZI) to announce its quarterly result on 04th April 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.1485 per share while revenue is 228.48M.
- Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) to announce its quarterly result on 05th April 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.38 per share while revenue estimated is 882.06M.
- RPM (RPM) to announce its quarterly result on 06th April 2022, EPS estimated to be $0.3012 per share while revenue estimated is 1.41B.
- Levi Strauss A (LEVI) to announce its quarterly result on 06th April 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.4142 per share while revenue estimated is 1.54B.
- Constellation Brands B to announce its quarterly result on 07th April 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.09 per share while revenue estimated is 2.02B.
GOLD
TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
GOLD is trading in an ascending triangle. Further downside is seen in the coming week.
SILVER
SILVER was trading in the upward channel. Further downside will be seen after the breakdown.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI CRUDE OIL is trading within a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming week.
BTCUSD
TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK
BTCUSD is trading in the upward channel. Further upside is seen in the coming week.
ETHEREUM
ETHEREUM is trading in an upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
EURUSD
TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK
EURUSD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming weeks.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is trading in a symmetrical triangle. There is a possibility of a breakdown or a breakout.
EURJPY
EURJPY is in the upward channel. A further upside can be seen in the coming week.
NASDAQ 100
TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK
NASDAQ 100 was trading in an upward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming week.
DOW JONES
DOW JOES was trading in the down channel, further upside will be seen in the coming days after the breakout upside.
DATA WATCH
| Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| Monday, April 04, 2022 | ||||
| 07:00 | AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| 14:35 | GBP | BoE Gov Bailey Speaks | ||
| Tuesday, April 05, 2022 | ||||
| 10:00 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr) | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 14:00 | GBP | Composite PMI (Mar) | 59.7 | 59.7 |
| 14:00 | GBP | Services PMI (Mar) | 61 | 61 |
| 19:30 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 58 | 56.5 |
| Wednesday, April 06, 2022 | ||||
| 14:00 | GBP | Construction PMI (Mar) | 57.3 | 59.1 |
| 19:30 | CAD | Ivey PMI (Mar) | – | 60.6 |
| 23:30 | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | ||
| Thursday, April 07, 2022 | ||||
| 17:00 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Statement | ||
| 18:00 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | – | 202K |
| Friday, April 08, 2022 | ||||
| 18:00 | CAD | Employment Change | 80.0K | 336.3K |