WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WITH CANDLESTICK CHARTS – 1 MAY 2022
01 May 2022
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
Nationwide HPI (MoM), U.K.
WHEN: 29th April 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) is the U.K.’s second earliest report on house prices. It measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.
GBP/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
GDP (QoQ) (Q1), U.S.
WHEN: 28th April 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.
USD/CHF is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
CPI (YoY) (Apr), Eurozone
WHEN: 29th April 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.
EUR/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
GDP (MoM) (Feb), Canada
WHEN: 29th April 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.
CAD/JPY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
CPI (QoQ) (Q1), Australia
WHEN: 27th April 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.
AUD/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming weeks
Gold reclaims the $1900 – mark amid disappointing U.S. Q1 performance
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED: Gold started the week under heavy bearish pressure, losing nearly 2% on Monday. It attempted a weak recovery on Tuesday, rallying around a scanty 0.4%. Following this meager recovery attempt, the price fell below $1900 and touched its lowest point in more than 2 months at $1870.9 on Thursday. It closed the week above $1900 recovering a large portion of its losses.
The COVID – induced lockdown in Shanghai entered its fourth week and with mass testing beginning in Beijing, the capital of the world’s second-biggest economy. The possibility of lockdown in Beijing pressured gold to drop below the $1900 – level on Monday. On top of the China-related concerns, the protracted conflict in Ukraine caused investors to grow increasingly worried about a global economic slowdown. The greenback capitalized on safe-haven flows and put additional pressure on gold. The U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q1, this disappointing result led to market participants losing interest in the dollar and gold closed in positive territory this week.
In the coming weeks, the nearest support and resistance level are seen at $1900 and $1930 respectively.
Gold is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
Crude oil had a positive week as supply concerns dominated demand worries.
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
WTI CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED: Chicago WTI crude oil futures started the week under heavy bearish pressure, losing around 3.4%, and closing below the $100 – level on Monday. However, the price was able to regain on Tuesday the losses suffered on Monday, closing above the $100 – level after gaining around 3.2%. It closed the week at $104.69 per barrel, a gain of nearly 3%.
As Shanghai entered its fourth week of lockdown and with the strong possibility of a lockdown in Beijing, market participants were wary of decreasing crude oil demand as the world’s largest crude oil importer adopted strict lockdown measures. However, the demand-side worries were offset by supply-side concerns as Russia halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland on Wednesday and a report emerged stating that Russian oil production could fall by as much as 17% this year as Western sanctions hurt investments and exports. The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are expected to stick to their existing deal and agree on a small output increase for June at its May 5 meeting.
In the coming weeks, the nearest support and resistance level are seen at $100 and $108.7 respectively.
Chicago WTI crude oil futures is trading within a symmetrical triangle within the potential of a breakdown or breakout occurring. There is a possibility of either breakout or a breakdown happening in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin falls below the $40,000 – level as investors stay clear of risky assets
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
BITCOIN
WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin opened the week on a positive, bullish note gaining around 2.4%. However, bearish pressure on Tuesday wiped out its Monday gain as the price declined approximately 5.5%. It raised on Wednesday and Thursday but witnessed a selloff on Friday. The “Fear and Greed Index” dropped 3 points to 20 on Saturday, reading “Extreme Fear”.
According to a survey conducted by Bitstamp – a cryptocurrency exchange, 88% of institutional and 75% of retail investors believe that cryptocurrency will become widespread before the end of the decade. Meanwhile, the confidence level in digital assets in emerging economies is markedly higher than in developed countries, where regulations are stricter.
In the coming weeks, the nearest support and resistance level are seen at $37,660 and $40,000 respectively.
BTCUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
Manufacturing PMI (Apr), U.K.
WHEN: 03rd May 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.
Unemployment Rate (Apr), U.S.
WHEN: 06th May 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is not working, yet actively seeking employment.
German Unemployment Change (Apr), Eurozone
WHEN: 03rd May 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: German unemployment change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the prior month.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR, while a lower than forecast reading is generally positive (bullish) for the EUR.
Employment Change (Apr), Canada
WHEN: 06th May 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment change reports the change in the number of people employed versus the prior month. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar), Australia
WHEN: 04th May 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Retail sales gauges the change in aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
1. Pfizer Inc (PFE) to announce its quarterly result on 03rd May 2022, EPS is estimated to be $1.52 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 23.97B.
2. Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) to announce its quarterly result on 03rd May 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.9109 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 5.01B.
3. S&P Global Inc (SPGI) to announce its quarterly result on 03rd May 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.99 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 2.9B.
4. CVS Health Corp (CVS) to announce its quarterly result on 04th May 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.17 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 75.55B.
5. ConocoPhillips (COP) to announce its quarterly result on 05th May 2022, EPS is estimated to be $3 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 16.8B.
TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
GOLD
GOLD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
SILVER
SILVER is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI Crude Oil is trading within a symmetrical triangle within the potential of a breakdown or breakout occurring. There is a possibility of either breakout or a breakdown happening in the coming weeks.
TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK
BTCUSD
BTCUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
ETHEREUM
ETHEREUM is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK
EURUSD
EURUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
EURJPY
EURJPY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside is seen in the coming weeks.
TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK
NASDAQ 100
NASDAQ 100 is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
S&P 500
S&P 500 is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.
DATA WATCH
| Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| Monday, May 02, 2022 | ||||
| 19:30 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 57.6 | 57.1 |
| Tuesday, May 03, 2022 | ||||
| 10:00 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision (May) | 0.25% | 0.10% |
| 13:25 | EUR | German Unemployment Change (Apr) | -15K | -18K |
| 14:00 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 55.3 | 55.3 |
| 19:20 | USD | JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) | 11.266M | 11.266M |
| Wednesday, May 04, 2022 | ||||
| 07:00 | AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.50% | 1.80% |
| 17:45 | USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) | 395K | 455K |
| 19:30 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 58.5 | 58.3 |
| 20:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | – | 0.692M |
| 23:30 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | – | – |
| Thursday, May 05, 2022 | ||||
| 14:00 | GBP | Services PMI (Apr) | 58.3 | 58.3 |
| 14:00 | GBP | Composite PMI (Apr) | 57.6 | 57.6 |
| 16:30 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) | 1.00% | 0.75% |
| 18:00 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | – | 180K |
| Friday, May 06, 2022 | ||||
| 14:00 | GBP | Construction PMI (Apr) | – | 59.1 |
| 18:00 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) | 380K | 431K |
| 18:00 | USD | Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 3.50% | 3.60% |
| 18:00 | CAD | Employment Change (Apr) | 80.0K | 72.5K |
| 19:30 | CAD | Ivey PMI (Apr) | 60 | 74.2 |