WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WITH CANDLESTICK CHARTS – 10 JULY 2022

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WITH CANDLESTICK CHARTS – 10 JULY 2022

Technical Analysis

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

    Composite PMI (Jun), U.K.

    WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

05th JULY 2022                                                            GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the both sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

GBPAUD is trading in the down channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

     ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun), U.S.

    WHEN:                                                                 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

     07th JULY 2022                                                            USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

USDCHF is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul), AUSTRALIA

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

05th JULY 2022                                                           AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

AUDUSD is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold Locked at $1,740 as Bulls Seek Direction

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED: Call it “goldilocks” of the literal kind. Far from the concept of an ideal economic state where things aren’t expanding or contracting too much, the goldilocks here refer to gold practically being locked at $ 1,740 an ounce as traders try to discern director for the yellow metal.

Gold futures for August delivery on New York’s Comex settled up $2.60, or 0.2%, at $1,742.30 an ounce. For the week, it showed a drop of 3.3% — its fourth in a row since the week ended June 10. The current week’s loss was also the sharpest since the one for the week ended May 6.

Despite the gloomy weekly statistics, gold has shown resilience somewhat since Wednesday’s 10-month low of $1,730.70. Rebounding from that level, August gold on Comex has barely moved on either side of $1,740.

That, to some, was an indication that gold may already have, or is close, to bottoming out and probably has not too much more to lose.

Friday’s trade in gold was bogged by more uncertainty after the release of sterling U.S. jobs data for June.

GOLD was trading in the downward channel. The downside will be further in the coming week after the breakdown.

Oil rises 2% but posts weekly loss on recession fears

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Oil prices rose about 2% in volatile trade on Friday but were still heading for a weekly decline as investors worried about a potential recession-driven demand downturn even as global fuel supplies remained tight.

Central banks around the world are raising interest rates to tame inflation, spurring fears that rising borrowing costs could stifle growth, while mass COVID-19 testing in Shanghai this week caused worries about potential lockdowns that could also hit oil demand.

Brent crude futures rose $2.37, or 2.3%, to settle at $107.02 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.06, or 2%, to settle at $104.79 a barrel. Both benchmarks traded in negative territory and then rebounded from session lows.

Brent posted a weekly decline of about 4.1% and WTI a loss of 3.4%, following on from the first monthly decline since November. Prices tumbled on Tuesday, when Brent’s $10.73 drop was the contract’s third-biggest daily fall since it started trading in 1988.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

Bitcoin Mining Firm Fires 15% Workers, Cuts Exco Salaries by 50%

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED:

Compass Mining, a Bitcoin mining company, has joined the league of crypto companies laying off workers due to “extreme market conditions.”

Thomas Heller and Paul Gosker, the co-founders and interim CEOs of Compass Mining, announced the development in a press release on June 7, 2022.

In detail, Heller and Gosker said the company would be sacking 15% of its workforce and “implement significant compensation and spend reductions” across the rest of the business. According to the report, the significant pay cut for the senior employees and executive team is 50% of their current earnings.

The CEOs said they found no alternative to avoid taking this step. However, it will allow Compass to stay relevant in the evolving market, unlike many of their competitors.

Additionally, Compass Mining’s CEOs confessed that the company grew too rapidly. This caused them to take many premature steps that sabotaged their buoyancy.

BTCUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

     GDP (YoY), U.K.

 WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 13th JULY 2022                                                              GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. 

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

      Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14th JULY 2022                                                               USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

    Employment Change (Jun), AUSTRALIA

WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

13th JULY 2022                                                            AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun), CHINA

WHEN:                                                                         WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14th JULY 2022                                                             CNY and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, NEW ZEALAND

WHEN:                                                                           WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

12th JULY 2022                                                                       NZD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

  1. PepsiCo (PEP) to announce its Quarterly Results on 12th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 1.74 per share while revenue estimated 19.49B. 
  2. Progressive (PGR) to announce its Quarterly Results on 13th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 0.947 per share while revenue estimated 12.45B.
  3. JPMorgan (JPM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 14th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 2.94 per share while revenue estimated 31.85B.
  4. Morgan Stanley (MS) to announce its Quarterly Results on 14th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 1.67 per share while revenue estimated 13.97B.
  5. BlackRock (BLK) to announce its Quarterly Results on 15th JULY 2022, EPS estimated to 8.7 per share while revenue estimated 4.84B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

     GOLD

GOLD was trading in the downward channel. The downside will be further in the coming week after the breakdown. 

SILVER

SILVER was trading in the downward channel. The downside will be further in the coming week after the breakdown.

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

     BTCUSD

BTCUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days. 

ETHEREUM

ETHEREUM is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.   

 TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

     EURUSD

EURUSD is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

     NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ 100 is trading in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.

     S&P 500

S&P 500 is trading in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.

     DATA WATCH

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