Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 12 June 2022

Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 12 June 2022

Technical Analysis

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

Construction PMI (May), U.K.

WHEN: 08th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by construction firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the construction sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the construction sector is in contraction. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

GBP/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Core CPI (MoM) (May), U.S.

WHEN: 10th June 2022                                                    WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability. Because the Fed believes that core inflation is a better gauge of underlying price pressures, it is more closely watched than overall inflation which tends to be more volatile. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

USD/CHF is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

GDP (QoQ) (Q1), Eurozone

WHEN: 08th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

EUR/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Employment Change (May), Canada

WHEN: 10th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: Employment Change reports the change in the number of people employed versus the prior month. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

CAD/JPY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun), Australia

WHEN: 07th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reports its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. As short-term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

AUD/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks

Gold price soars as US witness record inflation.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED:   Gold prices soared on Friday after May inflation data registered record inflation. Inflation in the United States climbed to a multi-decade high of 8.6% on a yearly basis in May, according to the monthly data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The demand for the safe-haven assets soared on Friday despite a rising US yields and a stronger dollar. US yields, particularly at the short-end, have spiked to reflect a build-up of Fed tightening bets and this is also boosting the greenback. Gold has a negative correlation to both yields and the US dollar. Hence, gold’s upcoming performance will be influenced by these. 

Also, the current level of inflation and the upcoming rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will be highly supportive of gold prices, pushing them higher over the course of the next two years.

The immediate support and resistance level is seen at $1820 and $1900 respectively.

GOLD is trading within a rectangle. There is a possibility of both a breakdown or a breakout occurring in the coming weeks.

Crude oil finished at $120 per barrel as China’s lockdown worries returns.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

WTI CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Crude oil prices closed lower this week as China lockdown worries return ad amid risk-off Wall Street flows. Both Shanghai and Beijing were back in COVID-19 alert on Thursday, this week, as cases started rising again, while parts of Shanghai have gone back into lockdown and the city has restarted mass testing.

Putting aside the risk of China lockdown, global crude oil demand is looking very strong at the moment particularly at a time when OPEC+ output is struggling, mostly as a result of Western sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Another development this week is Iran’s decision to start removing nearly all the monitoring equipment installed by the International Atomic Energy Agency as part of the 2015 nuclear pact. This dents the prospect of the US and Iran returning to the deal, making the removal of sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports less likely. Overall, the supply of crude oil is expected to remain tight as OPEC+ failed to meet its production cap alongwith the EU’s plan to ban Russian crude exports.

The immediate support and resistance are seen at the $116 and $124 – levels.

WTI Crude oil is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin readdress $29,000 as investors respond to US inflation data

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin price is at a point in its journey where investors are split into those expecting a relief rally, a continuation of the crash, and a full-blown bull rally. Bitcoin price witness a gain on Monday which was subsequently wipe out by the decline in the following days. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 11/100 to 12/100, remaining deep within the “Extreme Fear” zone reflecting investors fear of a further decline.

A look into Glassnode’s exchange net position change metric reveals that the first week of June saw inflows of up to 71,700 BTC into exchanges. This spike reveals actually reveals a lack of confidence amongst investors, who moved their BTC onto platforms that would then allow them to sell more easily in case a massive sell-off occurs.

The immediate support and resistance are seen at the $28,000 and $30,000 – levels.

BTCUSD is trading within a rectangle. There is possibility of either a breakdown or a breakout occurring in the coming weeks.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

GDP (QoQ), U.K.

WHEN: 13th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

Retail Sales (MoM) (May), U.S.

WHEN: 15th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

CPI (YoY) (May), Eurozone

WHEN: 17th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Apr), Canada

WHEN: 17th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Manufacturing Sales reports the change in the value of sales made by manufacturers across Canada.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

Employment Change (May), Australia

WHEN: 16th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment Change reports the change in the number of people employed across Australia. Jobs and the income they generate is an important factor in consumer spending.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Oracle (ORCL) is expected to announce its quarterly earnings on 13th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $1.37 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 11.62B.

2. Ferguson (FERG) is expected to announce its quarterly earnings on 14th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.03 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 6.67B.

3. H&R Block (HRB) is expected to announce its quarterly earnings on 15th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $4.85 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 2.422M.

4. Adobe (ADBE) is expected to announce its quarterly earnings on 16th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $3.31 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 4.35B.

5. Kroger (KR) is expected to announce its quarterly earnings on 16th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $1.29 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 43.59B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

GOLD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GOLD is trading within a rectangle. There is a possibility of both a breakdown or a breakout occurring in the coming weeks.

SILVER

Weekly Technical Analysis

SILVER is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

WTI CRUDE OIL

Weekly Technical Analysis

WTI Crude oil is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

BTCUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

BTCUSD is trading within a rectangle. There is possibility of either a breakdown or a breakout occurring in the coming weeks.

ETHEREUM

Weekly Technical Analysis

ETHEREUM is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

EURUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

GBPUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GBPUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

EURJPY

Weekly Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

NASDAQ 100

Weekly Technical Analysis

NASDAQ 100 is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

S&P 500

Weekly Technical Analysis

S&P 500 is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

DATA WATCH

TimeCurrencyEventForecastPrevious
Monday, June 13, 2022    
11:30GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr)0.2%-0.2%
11:30GBP GDP (QoQ)0.80%
11:30GBP GDP (YoY)8.7%
11:30GBP GDP (MoM)-0.1%
11:30GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change0.8%
Tuesday, June 14, 2022    
11:30GBP Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Apr)7.60%7.00%
11:30GBP Claimant Count Change (May)-42.5K-56.9K
14:30EURGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)-27.50-34.30
18:00USDPPI (MoM) (May)0.8%0.5%
18:00CADManufacturing Sales (MoM) (Apr)1.6%2.5%
Wednesday, June 15, 2022    
18:00USDRetail Sales (MoM) (May)0.2%0.9%
18:00USDCore Retail Sales (MoM) (May)0.8%0.6%
18:00USDCrude Oil Inventories-1.917M2.025M
18:00USDFed Interest Rate Decision
18:00USDFOMC Economic Projections
18:00USDFOMC Statement
Thursday, June 16, 2022    
00:00USDFOMC Press Conference
07:00AUD Employment Change (May)25.0K4.0K
16:30GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)1.25%1.00%
18:00USDBuilding Permits (May)1.787M1.823M
18:00USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)5.32.6
Friday, June 17, 2022    
14:30EURCPI (YoY) (May)8.10%8.10%
18:15USDFed Chair Powell Speaks

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