Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 14 November 2021

Technical Analysis

Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 14 November 2021

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

    GDP (YoY) (Q3), U.K.

    WHEN:                                               WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

11th NOVEMBER 2021                            GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

GBPJPY is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

     Core CPI (MoM) (Oct), U.S.

     WHEN:                                              WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

     10th NOVEMBER 2021                            USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

GBPUSD is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep), JAPAN

WHEN:                                              WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

11th NOVEMBER 2021                             JPY and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT HAPPENED: Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

EURJPY is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

Gold up 2nd Straight Week, 7th Day in Row, on ‘Inflation Sparkle’

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED: It has exceeded most gold bears’ expectations, but bullion’s true test still lies in its ability to recapture $1,900 pricing and beyond.

U.S. gold futures’ most active contract, December, settled Friday’s trade up $4.60, or 0.3%, at $1,868.50 an ounce. It earlier peaked at $1,871.35 — its highest since June 15.

The yellow metal sparkled for a second week in a row, notching a win of 2.8% this week after last week’s 1.8%. It also rose for a seventh straight day, its longest stretch in the green since a previous run between the end of June and the first week of July.

“What’s happening to gold is certainly great, but to me, the price still needs to get beyond $1,900 in order to establish its true cred as an inflation hedge,” said Phillip Streible, precious metals strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

Gold last traded at $1,900 levels in June.

GOLD is trading in the up channel; Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

Crude Oil Lower; Strong Dollar, SPR Speculation Weigh

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Oil prices fell Friday, weighed by the strength of the U.S. dollar and continued speculation that the Biden administration will authorise the release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

By 9:35 AM ET (1435 GMT), U.S. crude futures were down 1.1% at $80.67 a barrel, while Brent futures fell 0.8% to $82.25, with both contracts on course for a third weekly fall. 

U.S. Gasoline RBOB Futures were down 1% at $2.2947 a gallon.

The dollar climbed to a 16-month high earlier Friday, and headed for a weekly gain of around 1%, following the latest inflation release showing consumer prices rising at the fastest annual pace since 1990, increasing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates earlier than expected.

A rising dollar weighs as it makes the commodity more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.

Also causing traders to baulk is continued talk that the U.S. government will move to cool gasoline prices, a political bone of contention, by releasing supply from the country’s strategic reserve.

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel; downside will be seen in the coming days.

Bitcoin edges lower as advance in major cryptocurrencies slows

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: The Bitcoin price edged lower on Friday but still held above $63,500 as high inflation in the US and much of the developed world is continuing to support major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is often viewed by its supporters as a hedge for inflation given its limited supply. One of the main characteristics of Bitcoin is its limited supply with the total number of Bitcoin capped at 21 million. The scarcity, in theory, should control inflation that might arise from an unlimited supply of the currency.

However, it is still inconclusive whether Bitcoin is a suitable hedge for inflation. Higher-risk assets, such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, have benefitted from low interest rates and the Fed’s large scale quantitative easing programme.

Following this week’s US inflation print, where CPI increased 6.2% YoY in the latest month, the likelihood of an earlier than expected interest rate hike and faster tapering of bond buys has increased.

Therefore, higher inflation may weigh on the price of Bitcoin as the ‘punch-bowl’ is gradually removed.

BTCUSD is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.      

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

     Claimant Count Change (Oct), U.K.

 WHEN:                                                              WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 16th NOVEMBER 2021                                      GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                            Pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labour market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth. 

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

      Building Permits (Oct), U.S.

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

17th NOVEMBER 2021                                            USD and its subsequent 

                                                                             Pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep), CANADA

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

19th NOVEMBER 2021                                          CAD and its subsequent 

                                                                             Pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in Canada, excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the Canadian economy.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

CPI (YoY) (Oct), EURO ZONE

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

17th NOVEMBER 2021                                      EUR and its subsequent 

                                                                             Pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

GDP (QoQ) (Q3), JAPAN 

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14th NOVEMBER 2021                                     JPY and its subsequent 

                                                                            pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Walmart (WMT) to announce its Quarterly Results on 16th NOVEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 1.39 per share while revenue estimated 135.21B. 

2. Home Depot (HD) to announce its Quarterly Results on 16th NOVEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 3.35 per share while revenue estimated 34.5B.

3. NVIDIA (NVDA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 17th NOVEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 1.10 per share while revenue estimated 6.81B.

4. Baidu (BIDU) to announce its Quarterly Results on 17th NOVEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 12.70 per share while revenue estimated 31.83B.

5. Workday (WDAY) to announce its Quarterly Results on 18th NOVEMBER 2021, EPS estimated to 0.867 per share while revenue estimated 1.31B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

GOLD

Technical analysis

GOLD is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week. 

SILVER

Technical analysis

SILVER is trading in the upward channel; upside will be seen in the coming days.

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical analysis

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel; downside will be seen in the coming days.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

BTCUSD

Technical analysis

BTCUSD is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week. 

ETHEREUM

Technical analysis

ETHEREUM is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.   

 TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

EURUSD

Technical analysis

EURUSD is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen in the coming days.

GBPUSD

Technical analysis

GBPUSD is trading in the down channel; further downside can be seen in the coming days.

EURJPY

Technical analysis

EURJPY is trading in the down channel; further downside will be seen in the coming days.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

NIKKEI 225

Technical analysis

NIKKEI 225 is trading in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.

CAC 40

Technical analysis

CAC 40 is trading in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.

DATA WATCH

Technical analysis

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