WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
GDP (QoQ), U.K.
WHEN: 13th June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.
GBP/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
Retail Sales (MoM) (May), U.S.
WHEN: 15th June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
USD/CHF is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
CPI (YoY) (May), Eurozone
WHEN: 17th June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.
EUR/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Apr), Canada
WHEN: 17th June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: Manufacturing Sales reports the change in the value of sales made by manufacturers across Canada. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.
CAD/JPY is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
Employment Change (May), Australia
WHEN: 16th June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT HAPPENED: Employment Change reports the change in the number of people employed across Australia. Jobs and the income they generate is an important factor in consumer spending. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.
AUD/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
Gold closed the week below $1850- level, falls prey to US yields
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED: Gold price seems to have gone into a consolidation phase near $1,850 after having gained more than 2% in the previous two days. Markets remain relatively quiet ahead of the three-day weekend in the US and gold remains on track to post weekly losses despite the impressive rally witnessed following the Federal Reserve’s policy announcements.
US Treasury bond yields fell sharply in the second half of the week and allowed gold to gain traction. With the initial reaction to the FOMC’s decision to hike the policy rate by 75 basis points, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield climbed above 3.4%. The US Dollar Index reached its highest level in more than two decades at 105.78 on Wednesday but erased a large portion of its weekly gains. The greenback failed to gather strength despite the risk-averse market environment as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen became the go-to safe-haven assets. The renewed dollar weakness helped gold preserve its bullish momentum on Thursday
The immediate support and resistance level is seen at $1820 and $1900 respectively.
GOLD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
WTI crude oil falls around 10% to four-weeks low, closed below $110.
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
WTI CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED: WTI crude oil prices fall about 10% to a four-week low on Friday on worries that interest rate hikes by major central banks could slow the global economy and cut demand for energy. Also pressuring prices, the U.S. dollar this week rose to its highest level since December 2002 against a basket of currencies, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settle this week at $107.99 per barrel, the lowest since May 18. Further contributing to declining crude oil prices was the Russian signal of increasing its oil exports. Russia expects its oil exports to increase in 2022 despite Western sanctions and a European embargo, the Russian deputy energy minister said on Friday.
The immediate support and resistance are seen at the $105 and $115 – levels.
WTI Crude oil is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin crashes below the critical $20,000 – level, plummets more than 25%.
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
BITCOIN
WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin fell below $20,000 amid a broader market downturn. Bitcoin price is set to trade sideways-to-lower after the US Central Bank confirmed its more hawkish rate path is going forward in order to bring inflation down. There are only two factors now that are key to determining when the crypto-winter is likely to come to an end. The US job report on every first Friday of the month is one of these factors, in particular the expendable household income component, which has been getting smaller over the past few months, pointing to less available cash for investing in cryptocurrencies.
The second factor is monthly inflation from the US. Once US inflation drops and Expendable Household Income increases, it provides a useful signal that a solid, more extended-term uptrend will start in cryptocurrencies. Neither sooner, nor later, will the end of the crypto-winter be announced.
The immediate support and resistance are seen at the $18,000 and $20,000 – levels.
BTCUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
CPI (YoY) (May), U.K.
WHEN: 22nd June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.
New Home Sales (May), U.S.
WHEN: 24th June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: New Home Sales measures the annualised number of new single-family homes that were sold during the prior month. When it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales, this report tends to have more impact because the two reports are highly correlated.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
German Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Eurozone
WHEN: 23rd June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.
Core CPI (MoM) (May), Canada
WHEN: 22nd June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer (excluding food and energy).
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.
Manufacturing PMI, Australia
WHEN: 23rd June 2022 WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Australian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction.
A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
1. Lennar (LEN) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 21st June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $3.96 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 8.11B.
2. Accenture (ACN) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 23rd June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.85 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 16.04B.
3. FedEx (FDX) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 23rd June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $6.88 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 24.61B.
4. FactSet Research (FDS) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 23rd June 2022, EPS is estimated to be 3.22 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 476.78M.
5. CarMax (KMX) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 24th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be 1.61 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 9.19B.
TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
GOLD
GOLD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
SILVER
SILVER is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI Crude oil is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK
BTCUSD
BTCUSD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
ETHEREUM
ETHEREUM is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK
EURUSD
EURUSD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
EURJPY
EURJPY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK
NASDAQ 100
NASDAQ 100 is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
S&P 500
S&P 500 is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.
DATA WATCH
| Time | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| Tuesday, June 21, 2022 | ||||
| 07:00 | AUD | RBA Meeting Minutes | – | – |
| 18:00 | CAD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 19:30 | USD | Existing Home Sales (May) | 5.39M | 5.61M |
| Wednesday, June 22, 2022 | ||||
| 11:30 | GBP | CPI (YoY) (May) | 9.1% | 9.0% |
| 18:00 | CAD | Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 19:30 | USD | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | – | – |
| Thursday, June 23, 2022 | ||||
| 04:30 | AUD | Manufacturing PMI | – | 55.3 |
| 13:00 | EUR | German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 54.0 | 54.8 |
| 14:00 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 54.6 | 54.6 |
| 14:00 | GBP | Services PMI (Jun) | 51.8 | 51.8 |
| 14:00 | GBP | Composite PMI (Jun) | 51.8 | 51.8 |
| 18:00 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 229K |
| 19:30 | USD | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | – | 1.956M |
| Friday, June 24, 2022 | ||||
| 11:30 | GBP | Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.90% | 1.40% |
| 13:30 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun) | 92.9 | 91.8 |
| 19:30 | USD | New Home Sales (May) | 580K | 591K |
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