Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 26 June 2022

Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 26 June 2022

Technical Analysis

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

CPI (YoY) (May), U.K.

WHEN: 22nd June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP

GBP/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

New Home Sales (May), U.S.

WHEN: 24th June 2022                                                    WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: New Home Sales measures the annualised number of new single-family homes that were sold during the prior month. When it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales, this report tends to have more impact because the two reports are highly correlated. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

USD/CHF is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

German Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Eurozone

WHEN: 23rd June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

EUR/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Core CPI (MoM) (May), Canada

WHEN: 22nd June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer (excluding food and energy). A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

CAD/JPY is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Manufacturing PMI, Australia

WHEN: 23rd June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: The Australian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

AUD/USD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Gold falls amid rising yields, decline for the second consecutive week

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED:   After closing the previous week below the 200-day SMA, gold started the new week on the back foot and registered modest losses on Monday and Tuesday. Following a rebound on Wednesday, gold lost its traction and ended up closing the second straight week in negative territory

Gold came under modest bearish pressure on Tuesday as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edged higher. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, however, the yellow metal’s losses remained limited. A significant decline in commodity prices this week seems to have eased fears about the persistent rise in inflationary pressures and boosted investors’ sentiment. This, in turn, triggered a strong rally in the equity markets, which was seen as a key factor that capped the upside for the safe-haven gold. The risk-on impulse allowed the US Treasury bond yields to rebound from a nearly two-week low touched on Thursday. This, along with expectations that the Fed would retain its policy tightening path to curb soaring inflation, contribute to keeping a lid on any meaningful gains for the non-yielding gold.

The immediate support and resistance level is seen at $1810 and $1900 respectively.

GOLD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Crude oil prices decline on fears of recession

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

WTI CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Crude oil prices were up slightly during the European session on Friday as fears of insufficient crude oil supply to meet demand during the summer took precedence over those of a recession amid runaway inflation. 

Crude oil prices fall for the second consecutive week after Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, raised the possibility of a recession in the United States provoked by aggressive interest rate increases aimed at cooling inflation that is now running at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, meet on June 30 and are expected to stick to a plan to only slightly accelerate hikes in oil production in July and August. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row in a record 23-month streak of increases.

The immediate support and resistance are seen at the $100 and $110 – levels.

WTI Crude oil is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin rallies on the back of equity rally

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: US equity markets rallied hard into the weekend, with the S&P 500 ending Friday trade over 3% higher, taking its weekly gains to nearly 6.5%. A strong finish to the week for US equity markets has given cryptocurrencies positive momentum into the weekend.

Bitcoin is currently trading with a positive bias in the mid-$21,000s and eyeing a break above earlier weekly highs in the upper-$21,000s. Any such break could facilitate a push higher. Glassnode pointed out that while Bitcoin prices are around the upper bound of previous bear market losses, other technical factors show more market pain. The token has slumped so far below its 200-day moving average that only 2% of its trading days in history have ever been worse off. This also occurred at much lower valuations. According to Glassnode, spot prices are currently at an 11.3% discount to the realized price, indicating that the average trader is now “underwater.”

The immediate support and resistance are seen at the $20,000 and $23,400 – levels.

BTCUSD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

GDP (QoQ) (Q1), U.K.

WHEN: 30th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

GDP (QoQ) (Q1), U.S.

WHEN: 29th June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

CPI (YoY) (Jun), Eurozone

WHEN: 01st July 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

GDP (MoM) (Apr), Canada

WHEN: 22nd June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the Canadian economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. 

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

Retail Sales (MoM) (May), Australia

WHEN: 23rd June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Nike (NKE) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 27th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.8329 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 12.18B.

2. Paychex (PAYX) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 29th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.7954 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 1.11B.

3. General Mills (GIS) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 29th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $1 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 4.8B.

4. Micron (MU) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 30th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.47 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 8.69B.

5. Constellation Brands A (STZ) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 30th June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $2.58 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 2.16B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

GOLD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GOLD is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

SILVER

Weekly Technical Analysis

SILVER is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

WTI CRUDE OIL

Weekly Technical Analysis

WTI Crude oil is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

BTCUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

BTCUSD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

ETHEREUM

Weekly Technical Analysis

ETHEREUM is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

EURUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

GBPUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GBPUSD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

EURJPY

Weekly Technical Analysis

EURJPY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

NASDAQ 100

Weekly Technical Analysis

NASDAQ 100 is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

S&P 500

Weekly Technical Analysis

S&P 500 is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

DATA WATCH

TimeCurrencyEventForecastPrevious
Monday, June 27, 2022    
18:00USDCore Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)0.30%0.40%
19:30USDPending Home Sales (MoM) (May)-4.0%-3.9%
Tuesday, 28 June, 2022    
14:00EURECB President Lagarde Speaks
19:30USDCB Consumer Confidence (Jun)100.9106.4
Wednesday, June 29, 2022    
07:00AUDRetail Sales (MoM) (May)0.40%0.90%
18:00USDGDP (QoQ) (Q1)-1.5%-1.5%
19:00EURECB President Lagarde Speaks
19:00GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
19:00USDFed Chair Powell Speaks
20:00USDCrude Oil Inventories1.956M
Thursday, June 30, 2022    
11:30GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)0.80%0.80%
11:30GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1)8.70%8.70%
13:25EURGerman Unemployment Change (Jun)-6K-4K
18:00CADGDP (MoM) (Apr)0.30%0.70%
18:00USDInitial Jobless Claims227K229K
Friday, July 01, 2022    
13:25EURGerman Manufacturing PMI (Jun)52.052.0
14:00GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jun)53.453.4
14:30EURCPI (YoY) (Jun)0.10.1

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