Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 29 May 2022

Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 29 May 2022

Technical Analysis

Public Sector Net Borrowing (Apr), U.K.

WHEN: 24th May 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: Public Sector Net Borrowing measures the difference between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the prior month. A positive number indicates a budget deficit, while a negative number indicates a surplus.

GBP/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

GDP (QoQ) (Q1), U.S.

WHEN: 26th May 2022                                                    WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measures of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally indicative negative (bearish) for the USD.

USD/CHF is trading below its previous upward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1), Eurozone

WHEN: 25th May 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

EUR/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar), Canada

WHEN: 26th May 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country (excluding automobile sales). It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

CAD/JPY is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr), Australia

WHEN: 27th May 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. It is an important indicator of consumer spending accounting for the majority of overall economic activity. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

AUD/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks

Gold prices finished the week with decent gains, rose this week towards $1860s.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD

WHAT HAPPENED:   Gold prices, this week, continued the previous week’s bullish momentum, gaining around 0.83%. Although, gold prices were able to close above the $1,860 – level on Tuesday. It closed, this week, below the $1,860 – level. 

Gold prices managed to gain on Monday as the greenback, its rival, weakened. The negative tilt to risk sentiment amid disappointing macroeconomic data from the US pushed the US treasury bond yield lower, allowing gold to soar higher. The FOMC’s May meeting minutes signaled hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. The minutes revealed that most policymakers agreed on two more 50 basis points rake hikes in the next two meetings. This allowed the dollar to recover, causing gold price to retreat, around 1.00%, on Wednesday. As the benchmark 10-year US treasury bond yield edged lower towards 2.7% on Friday, gold regained and climbed towards the $1,860 – level.

The immediate support and resistance level is seen at $1845 and $1860 respectively.

GOLD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks

Crude oil closed at 11 – week high, closed at $115 per barrel.

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

WTI CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: Crude oil prices closed higher this week, gaining around 4.00%. It closed this week around the $115 – level, an 11-week high. Oil prices witnessed a volatile session this week, with the first half of the week registering a bearish tone and the second half a bullish tone.

The price of crude oil jumped sharply as the EU continued to debate measures to ban Russian crude oil. While many support the measure, a small group of the member countries have opposed the measure citing vast amount that they purchased from Russia. Meanwhile, oil prices rose even after a sharp decline in China’s industrial output. According to the country’s statistics agency, industrial profits declined by 8.5% in April compared to the same period in 2021. The contraction piles pressure on the government after it has implemented Covid-zero strategies. Oil prices rose on Friday, closing out the week with gains ahead of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend, the start of peak U.S. demand season

The immediate support and resistance are seen at the $107 and $115 – levels.

WTI Crude oil is trading in an upward channel. Further upside is seen in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin declines for the 9th consecutive week, crashing around 60% from its all-time high

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: Bitcoin, like its previous weekly sessions, is now forming its ninth red weekly candle. Supporting this bearish narrative observed in Bitcoin price is the decline in the number of new addresses joining the BTC blockchain over the last year. There is growing risk of additional breakdowns in price because of negative momentum readings based on weekly and monthly price data. A more conclusive downside target would be $17,673, which is roughly 78% of the prior uptrend from March 2020 to November 2021. That price level would also result in a roughly 73% peak-to-trough decline, which could signal capitulation. Bitcoin declined by 83% from its all-time high around $19,890 during the 2018 crypto bear market.

The immediate support and resistance are seen at $25,350 and $30,000 – levels.

BTCUSD is trading within a rectangle. There is possibility of either a breakdown or a breakout occurring in the coming weeks.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

Manufacturing PMI (May), U.K.

WHEN: 01st June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: GBP and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

Initial Jobless Claims U.S.

WHEN: 02nd June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: USD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the timeliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

CPI (YoY) (May), Eurozone

WHEN: 31st May 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: EUR and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

GDP (MoM) (Mar), Canada

WHEN: 31st May 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: CAD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the Canadian economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. Canada releases fresh GDP data on a monthly basis.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CAD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CAD.

GDP (QoQ) (Q1), Australia

WHEN: 01st June 2022                                                   WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED: AUD and its subsequent pairs.

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. Salesforce.com (CRM) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 31st May 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.9448 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 7.38B.

2. HP Inc (HPQ) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 31st May 2022, EPS is estimated to be $1.05 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 16.17B.

3. Hewlett Packard (HPE) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 01st June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.4549 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 6.81B.

4. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 02nd June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $1.43 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 1.55B.

5. Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) is expected to announce its quarterly result on 03rd June 2022, EPS is estimated to be $0.2311 per share while revenue is forecasted to be 463.82M.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

GOLD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GOLD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

SILVER

Weekly Technical Analysis

SILVER is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

WTI CRUDE OIL

Weekly Technical Analysis

WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in an upward channel. Further upside is seen in the coming weeks.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

BTCUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

BTCUSD is trading within a rectangle. There is possibility of either a breakdown or a breakout occurring in the coming weeks.

ETHEREUM

Weekly Technical Analysis

ETHEREUM is trading in a downward channel. Further downside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

EURUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

GBPUSD

Weekly Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

EURJPY

Weekly Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY is trading in an upward channel. Further upside movement can be seen in the coming weeks.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

NASDAQ 100

Weekly Technical Analysis

NASDAQ 100 is trading in a downward channel. Further downside is seen in the coming weeks.

S&P 500

Weekly Technical Analysis

S&P 500 is trading in an upward channel. Further upside is seen in the coming weeks.

DATA WATCH

TimeCurrencyEventForecastPrevious
Tuesday, May 31, 2022    
13:25EURGerman Unemployment Change (May)-16K-13K
14:30EURCPI (YoY) (May)7.70%7.40%
18:00CADGDP (MoM) (Mar)0.5%1.1%
19:30USDCB Consumer Confidence (May)103.9107.3
Wednesday, June 01 2022    
07:00AUDGDP (QoQ) (Q1)0.70%3.40%
13:25EURGerman Manufacturing PMI (May)54.7054.70
14:00EURManufacturing PMI (May)54.654.6
16:30EURECB President Lagarde Speaks
17:45USDADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)300K247K
19:30USDISM Manufacturing PMI (May)54.555.4
19:30USDJOTs Job Openings (Apr)11.400M11.549M
19:30CADBoC Interest rate Decision1.50%1.00%
Thursday, June 2, 2022    
07:00AUDRetail Sales (MoM)0.9%
17:45USDADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May)280K247K
18:00USDInitial Jobless Claims210K
Friday, June 3, 2022    
18:00USDNonfarm Payrolls (May)320K428K
18:00USDUnemployment Rate (May)3.50%3.60%
19:30USDISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)56.457.1

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