Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 31 July 2022
31 Jul 2022
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jul), U.K.
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
25th JULY 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes.
GBPTRY is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
CB Consumer Confidence (Jul), U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
26th JULY 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
USDNOK is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.
CPI (QoQ) (Q2), AUSTRALIA
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
26th JULY 2022 AUD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction.
AUDUSD is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
Gold Has First Weekly Win in Six; Still Trapped in Low $1,700s
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED:
A U.S. recession means different things to different investors.
To those in stocks, it was an opportunity to chase up stock prices on the reasoning that the Federal Reserve might be benign from here with rate hikes. For the long-oil crowd, it was time to be less presumptuous about demand, given the strong correlation between the economy and energy usage. To bulls in gold, it was a sign that perhaps some serious hedging will begin from now with the yellow metal.
Thus, gold had its biggest one-day rally since March on Wednesday after the Commerce Department said in the first of three estimates that U.S. gross domestic product probably declined 0.9% in the second quarter, after an established drop of 1.6% in the first quarter.
The back-to-back quarterly declines in GDP officially confirmed months of speculation that the United States was headed for a recession. It also unleashed a bull force in gold, a market that had been boxed up for weeks on end with pedestrian price moves that sometimes were no more than a couple of dollars.
Benchmark gold futures for August delivery on New York’s Comex settled its latest session up $31.20, or 1.8%, at $1,750.30 an ounce, after a session peak at $1,755.
Gold is breaking out now that a peak in Treasury yields is firmly in place. Stagflation is here to stay and that should be good news for gold prices. The U.S. economy is heading towards a recession and as long as Wall Street believes the Fed will deliver a slower pace of tightening, gold should start seeing safe-haven flows again.
GOLD is trading in an upward channel. The further upside will be seen in the coming week.
Oil up over $2/bbl as hopes fade for OPEC+ supply boost
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED:
Oil prices settled up more than $2 a barrel on Friday as attention turned to next week’s OPEC+ meeting and dimming expectations that the producer group will imminently boost supply.
Brent crude futures contract for September, which expire on Friday, jumped more than $3 a barrel during the session and then pared gains to settle at $110.01 a barrel, up $2.87, or 2.7%. The more active October contract was up $2.14, or 2.1%, at $103.97.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $98.62 a barrel, rising $2.20, or 2.3%, after jumping more than $5 a barrel.
Both contracts logged their second monthly losses, with Brent down about 4% for July and WTI nearly 7% lower.
Oil pared some gains after the release of data from oil services firm Baker Hughes, which showed that U.S. drillers added crude rigs for a record 23 months in a row, indicating more supply ahead.
In July, the oil rig count rose 11, increasing for a record 23rd month in a row, while the gas count was unchanged after rising for 10 straight months, the Baker Hughes data showed.
WTI CRUDE OIL was trading in the down channel. The upside will be seen in the coming week after the breakout upside.
Ethereum dev confirms Goerli merger date, the final update before the Merge
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
ETHEREUM
WHAT HAPPENED:
The Ethereum mainnet is just one testnet merger away from officially transitioning to a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain. After multiple shadow forks and testnet merges, the years-long journey has reached the final stage with the announcement of the final testnet merge to the Beacon chain.
The transition to PoS began in December 2020 with the launch of the Beacon chain, starting Phase 0 of the three-phase process. Phase 1, the current phase, was slated to be completed by 2021. However, due to numerous delays and unfinished work on the developers’ end, it is expected to be completed by the third week of September. The final phase of the transition is slated to be completed by late 2023.
ETHEREUM is trading in an upward channel. The further upside will be seen in the coming week.
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
Manufacturing PMI (Jul), U.K.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
01st AUGUST 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul), U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
03rd AUGUST 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, a composite index is calculated as an indicator of the overall economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Employment Change (Jul), CANADA
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
05th AUGUST 2022 CAD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug), AUSTRALIA
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
05th AUGUST 2022 AUD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2), NEW ZEALAND
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
02nd AUGUST 2022 NZD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
- Baidu (BIDU) to announce its Quarterly Results on 01st AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 10.63 per share while revenue estimated 29.52B.
- AMD (AMD) to announce its Quarterly Results on 02nd AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 1.02 per share while revenue estimated 6.49B.
- S&P Global (SPGI) to announce its Quarterly Results on 02nd AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 2.95 per share while revenue estimated 3.01B.
- Moderna (MRNA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 03rd AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 4.59 per share while revenue estimated 4.11B.
- R1 RCM (RCM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 03rd AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 0.1122 per share while revenue estimated 391.85M.
TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
GOLD
GOLD is trading in an upward channel. The further upside will be seen in the coming week.
SILVER
SILVER was trading in the up channel. The upside will be seen in the coming week after the breakout upside.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI CRUDE OIL was trading in the down channel. The upside will be seen in the coming week after the breakout upside.
TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK
BTCUSD
BTCUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.
LITECOIN
LITECOIN is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.
TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK
EURUSD
EURUSD is trading in an up channel. The further upside will be seen in the coming week.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD is trading in an up channel. The further upside will be seen in the coming week.
USDJPY
USDJPY is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.
TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK
NIKKEI 225
NIKKEI 225 is trading in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.
FTSE 100
FTSE 100 is trading in the up channel; further upside will be seen in the coming days.
DATA WATCH
