. Wheat rose on supply concerns - Capital Street Fx

Wheat rose on supply concerns

06 May 2022

Chicago wheat futures price is down 0.95% at $11 per bushel on mid-Frida trades.

Wheat prices rose this week on weather concerns among top global producers and as India mulls export restrictions on wheat.

The record heat waves in India are hurting wheat harvest. At the same time, soggy fields have delayed the plantation of North American spring wheat. In Europe, the lack of rainfall in some areas affects potential yields.

India is considering restricting wheat exports as lower than the typical wheat yields is expected during this harvest season on account of the record heat waves. The higher global wheat prices incentivize farmers to export what they have, even if the yields are low. This move is similar to the Indonesian action to curb palm oil exportation. Still, according to Food secretary Sudhanshu Panday, there is no need to restrict wheat exports as the country (India) has abundant domestic supply and reserve.

The global wheat market has rosed exponentially to record-level with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has disrupted wheat supplies from two key exporters: Russia and Ukraine, which account for around 30% of the global wheat supply. The Ukrainian supplies have been derailed as the Ukrainian Black Sea ports are under siege or have been sieged by the Russian armed forces. While importing from Russia has been disincentivized by the western sanctions. This has led to rising food prices and dangerous food security situations in large parts of the globe. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)’s food price index has risen over 26%, YoY

On the technical side, the RSI of Chicago wheat futures stood at 54.71 and is trading above all SMAs: MA (5), MA (20), and MA (10). So, BUY position can be taken with the following target and stop-loss: