WTI Crude Jumps on The Back of Reports Forecasting Lower Output from the U.S.

U.S. crude oil futures prices continued to advance in Asia on Wednesday, extending their up moves to a third trading session in a row. The price was supported by a report anticipating that U.S. crude production may not rise as much as previously forecast.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude August contract jumped 1.6 percent to trade around $45.77 a barrel on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday said that it expected U.S. crude oil output to increase by less than previously anticipated next year given a lower price outlook.

According to the agency’s latest monthly short-term energy outlook, it trimmed its forecast for 2018 crude oil output to a rise of 570,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast of a 680,000 bpd year-over-year increase. If confirmed, U.S. oil production would reach 9.9 million barrels per day next year. The agency’s forecast for 2017, which calls for an output of 9.3 million bpd, is unchanged.

Meanwhile, the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory data pointed to a draw of 8.13 million barrels for the week ending July 7th. This followed a draw of 5.76 million barrels recorded in the previous week and topped market’s expectation for a draw of around 2.5 million barrels last week.

Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be published later in the day.

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

Crude oil futures prices once again rebounded from a significant level at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. As can be seen from the chart, the price action has surpassed both the short-term MA20 and the long-term MA50 from below, confirming the reversal into an uptrend. RSI continued to point higher while ADX index is edging higher, signalling further advances for the commodity.

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