Asia Rallies on Chip Rebound as Iran-US Tensions Ease; Yen Firms on Pension-Flow Hopes, Hang Seng and Kospi Surge | Capital Street FX Asian Session Technical Analysis · 10 July 2026 Skip to main content Friday, 10 July 2026  ·  Asian Session Technical Analysis · LIVE · Updated 2:15 PM HKT/SGT · 3:15 PM JST · 4:45 PM AEST ▸ NIKKEI +2% & KOSPI +4% ON CHIP REBOUND · IRAN-US TALKS TO CONTINUE · YEN FIRMS TOWARD 161.52 · JAPAN PPI HOT AT 7.1% Asia Rallies on Chip Rebound as Iran-US Tensions Ease; Yen Firms on Pension-Flow Hopes, Hang Seng and Kospi Surge Hang Seng ~24,300 ▲ up around 1.2-1.9%, on track for its best week in over a year · USD/JPY ~161.52 ▼ yen firms as Katayama pushes pension funds toward domestic assets · AUD/USD ~0.6952 ▲ holding firm as hawkish RBA minutes offset a softer IMF outlook · Copper ~$6.29/lb ▲ holding gains on tight supply and BHP’s Chile expansion approval · Natural Gas ~$3.00 ▼ at a six-week low on Freeport LNG maintenance and a large storage build · Ethereum ~$1,769 ▲ up around 1.3% as risk appetite improves · Solana ~$77.45 ▲ extending its bounce toward the $80 handle Asia-Pacific markets are firmly risk-on into Friday afternoon trade, with a rebound in US chipmakers overnight sparking a broad regional rally: Japan’s Nikkei 225 has climbed around 2% and the Topix is up close to 0.75%, South Korea’s Kospi has surged more than 4% on the back of SK Hynix’s blockbuster $26.5 billion US share offering pricing at $149, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is higher by roughly 1.2-1.9%, putting it on track for its best week in more than a year. The improved risk tone is being reinforced by a genuine, if tentative, cooling in the Iran-US standoff: a US official said late Thursday that Washington remains committed to a negotiated resolution, with technical talks continuing and regional mediators pushing to revive a nuclear deal, allowing oil to settle back from this week’s sharp spike. That has taken pressure off the currency and rates complex in Japan, where the Yen has firmed toward 161.52 per Dollar and the 10-year JGB yield has pulled back from its three-decade high, both linked to Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s push to steer the country’s giant public pension fund toward greater domestic asset allocation. That currency-supportive story is unfolding against a genuinely hot inflation print: Japan’s June producer price index rose 7.1% year-on-year, well above the 6.8% consensus and April’s 6.3% pace, keeping the Bank of Japan on a tightening path even as bonds rally on pension-flow hopes. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar is holding firm near 0.6952 as markets weigh hawkish June RBA minutes against a fresh IMF downgrade to Australia’s 2026 growth forecast, Copper is holding gains above $6.25 a pound on persistent Chilean supply tightness, and Natural Gas has fallen to a six-week low near $3.00 per MMBtu as Freeport LNG’s scheduled maintenance and a larger-than-expected storage build ease near-term demand. In crypto, sentiment has turned constructive alongside the broader risk-on tone, with Ethereum up around 1.3% near $1,769 and Solana extending its bounce toward $77.45, both tracking Bitcoin’s push back above $64,000. Attention into the rest of the Asian session turns to any further Iran-US headlines, China’s producer and consumer inflation prints released earlier today, and the ongoing Hong Kong IPO pipeline. Session Overview Asian markets rally on an AI chip rebound and cooling Iran-US tensions, with the Yen firming on pension-flow hopes even as a hot Japanese PPI print keeps the BOJ on a tightening path. Friday’s Asian session has turned decisively risk-on after a genuinely difficult stretch for regional equities. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up around 2% and the broader Topix has added close to three-quarters of a percent, with chip-related names leading the advance after a major US memory maker’s large infrastructure investment pledge fuelled an overnight tech rally on Wall Street. South Korea’s Kospi has surged more than 4% on the same chip-driven rebound, powered by SK Hynix’s $26.5 billion American depositary share offering pricing at $149, with heavyweight semiconductor, battery and steel names posting broad gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has climbed roughly 1.2-1.9% to around 24,300, putting the index on track for its best weekly performance in more than a year, as the Hang Seng Tech Index outpaces the broader benchmark on renewed appetite for AI and semiconductor-linked names and a robust IPO pipeline. Crucially, this rally is being underpinned by a genuine, if still fragile, cooling in the Iran-US standoff. A US official said late Thursday that Washington remains committed to a negotiated resolution with Iran, with technical talks continuing and regional mediators pushing to revive a nuclear deal, in contrast to Wednesday-Thursday’s fresh exchange of strikes. That has allowed oil to settle back from this week’s near-11% two-day surge, easing the acute inflation-shock fears that had gripped markets, even as traders remain alert to the risk of renewed escalation. The more structurally significant story in Japan lies in bonds and currencies: the 10-year JGB yield has pulled back from a three-decade high and the Yen has firmed toward 161.52 per Dollar, both tied to Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s remarks that Tokyo will explore measures to encourage the Government Pension Investment Fund and other public pension funds to substantially increase their domestic asset holdings. That currency-supportive flow story is unfolding alongside a genuinely hot inflation print, with Japan’s June producer price index rising 7.1% year-on-year against a 6.8% consensus and May’s 6.3% pace, keeping the Bank of Japan on track to hike even as the pension-reform narrative supports bonds. Elsewhere across Asia-Pacific FX and commodities, the Australian Dollar is holding firm near 0.6952, up around 0.2% on the session, as markets weigh hawkish June RBA minutes flagging persistent inflation, excess demand and capacity constraints against a fresh IMF downgrade of Australia’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.0% and a warning that inflation will stay elevated near 4%;

US Stocks Edge Higher as Chip Rally Offsets Iran Escalation; Treasury Yields Hit 10-Month High, Oil Holds Near $73, Gold Steadies Above $4,100 | Capital Street FX U.S. Session Technical Analysis · 9 July 2026 Skip to main content Thursday, 9 July 2026  ·  U.S. Session Technical Analysis · LIVE · Updated 11:20 AM EDT / 8:20 AM PDT ▸ S&P 500 & NASDAQ UP ~0.4% · CHIPS LEAD ON SK HYNIX DEBUT · IRAN HITS 85 US-LINKED SITES · 10Y YIELD NEARS 4.60% · OIL HOLDS $74 US Stocks Edge Higher as Chip Rally Offsets Iran Escalation; Treasury Yields Hit 10-Month High, Oil Holds Near $73, Gold Steadies Above $4,100 S&P 500 ~7,513 ▲ up around 0.4%, clawing back Wednesday’s decline as chipmakers rally · USD/CAD ~1.4170 ▲ holding a bullish channel above 1.4150, testing the 1.4182 EMA · USD/CHF ~0.8060 ▼ slipping back under 0.8070 as Dollar bulls lose steam · Gold ~$4,112 ▲ steadying above $4,100 after touching a one-week low near $4,030 · WTI Crude ~$74.10 ▼ consolidating after this week’s near-11% two-day surge · US 5Y Treasury Yield ~4.33% ▲ tracking the 10Y’s push toward a 10-month high near 4.60% · Bitcoin ~$62,850 ▼ pinned near multi-week lows with Fear & Greed stuck at 22 · Solana ~$78.20 ▲ attempting a bounce off the $73 support shelf Wall Street is edging higher at midday after a choppy open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both up around 0.4% and the Dow lagging as investors lean back into the AI and semiconductor trade around SK Hynix’s closely watched US share offering — even as the Iran conflict shows no sign of cooling. The US struck roughly 90 Iranian targets over the past two days, and Iran has retaliated by hitting approximately 85 US-linked military sites across Bahrain and Kuwait, keeping the fragile ceasefire memorandum effectively dead after President Trump declared it “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara. That escalation has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up toward 4.60%, its highest level since May, as markets price in a growing probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year following Wednesday’s hawkish-leaning June FOMC minutes, the first released under Chair Kevin Warsh. Oil is holding most of this week’s sharp gains: WTI crude sits near $74 a barrel, consolidating after an almost 11% two-session surge, as the market weighs a genuine Strait of Hormuz risk premium against reports of easing physical demand. Gold has stabilized above the $4,100 mark after touching a one-week low near $4,030 on Wednesday, torn between safe-haven demand and the drag of a higher-for-longer rate outlook. In FX, the Dollar’s picture is mixed: USD/CAD holds a constructive bullish channel above 1.4150 as the Loonie stays the weakest reserve currency on the board, while USD/CHF has slipped back under 0.8070 after a false breakout above 0.8100 on Wednesday, as investors stay cautiously confident a negotiated Iran outcome eventually holds. Crypto remains the session’s clear laggard: Bitcoin is stuck near $62,850 with the Fear & Greed Index locked at 22, “Extreme Fear,” while Solana is attempting a tentative bounce off its $73 support shelf. Attention into the afternoon turns to weekly jobless claims, PepsiCo’s second-quarter results, and any fresh headlines out of the Gulf. Session Overview Wall Street grinds higher behind a chip-led rally even as Iran’s retaliation against roughly 85 US-linked Gulf sites keeps Treasury yields pinned near 10-month highs and the oil-driven inflation shock unresolved. Thursday’s US session has turned into a cautious, chip-led grind higher after Wednesday’s mixed close: the S&P 500 is up around 0.4% near 7,513 and the Nasdaq Composite is also up roughly 0.4–0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lags after Wednesday’s 577-point slide. The advance is being driven by renewed appetite for semiconductor and AI-linked names as SK Hynix’s US share offering draws strong investor demand, a signal that is rippling through the broader chip complex even as the macro backdrop stays genuinely tense. The US struck roughly 90 Iranian targets over the past two sessions, and Iran has responded by hitting approximately 85 US-linked military sites across Bahrain and Kuwait, effectively ending the ceasefire memorandum that President Trump declared “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. Crucially, equity investors appear willing to look past the immediate geopolitical shock and trade the AI theme regardless, a divergence from the bond market, which is treating the same events as a lasting inflation risk. That divergence is stark in rates. The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed up toward 4.60%, its highest level since May, as minutes from the Fed’s June meeting — the first released under Chair Kevin Warsh — showed a central bank still genuinely divided on the path for policy, with several participants flagging a case for a further hike if inflation stays elevated. The 5-year Treasury yield has climbed in sympathy to around 4.33%, up from roughly 4.23% earlier in the week, as the whole curve reprices around the oil-driven inflation shock. In commodities, WTI crude is holding near $74 a barrel, consolidating after an almost 11% two-session surge sparked by the US revoking the waiver that had allowed Iran to export crude, even as today’s price action suggests some profit-taking after the sharp move. Gold has stabilized above $4,100 after touching a one-week low near $4,030 on Wednesday, caught between genuine safe-haven demand from the Iran conflict and the drag of higher-for-longer US rate expectations; China’s central bank reported its largest monthly gold-reserve addition in over two and a half years in June, underscoring continued official-sector demand. Currency and crypto markets round out a mixed picture. USD/CAD is holding a constructive bullish channel above 1.4150 near 1.4170, with the Loonie remaining the weakest currency on the board as Canada’s softer growth profile and CUSMA/USMCA review uncertainty weigh, while USD/CHF has slipped back under 0.8070 near 0.8060 after a false breakout above 0.8100 on Wednesday, as the Swiss Franc draws some support from mild broad Dollar weakness. Crypto remains the

European Stocks Rebound as Chip Stocks Lead Gains and AstraZeneca Plunges 9%; Oil Retreats From Highs, Bund Yields Ease, Euro and Sterling Extend Gains | Capital Street FX European Session Technical Analysis · 9 July 2026 Skip to main content Thursday, 9 July 2026  ·  European Session Technical Analysis · LIVE · Updated 11:30 AM BST / 12:30 PM CEST ▸ STOXX 600 REBOUNDS AFTER 3-DAY SLIDE · CHIPMAKERS LEAD · ASTRAZENECA SINKS 9% · BUND YIELDS EASE · OIL RETREATS BELOW $74 European Stocks Rebound as Chip Stocks Lead Gains and AstraZeneca Plunges 9%; Bund Yields Ease From Two-Month High, Oil Retreats, Euro and Sterling Extend Gains EUR/USD ~1.1435 ▲ climbing toward 1.1450 as the Dollar struggles despite Iran tensions · GBP/USD ~1.3415 ▲ hits a three-week high above 1.3400 as UK political risk fades · CAC 40 ~8,300 ▲ up around 0.6%, rebounding after Wednesday’s 2.2% slide · DAX ~25,070 ▲ up around 0.7%, led by chipmakers ASML, Infineon and STMicro · FTSE 100 ~10,430 ▼ lags peers as AstraZeneca plunges over 9% on a failed drug trial · Germany 10Y Bund Yield ~3.06% ▼ easing from Wednesday’s two-month high near 3.10% · WTI ~$73.10 ▼ retreating nearly 2% after two days of sharp Iran-driven gains · Silver ~$59.13 ▲ rebounding off Wednesday’s $57.22 low, though still down on the week Europe’s session has turned into a cautious rebound after Wednesday’s heavy Iran-driven sell-off: the Stoxx 600 is up around 0.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50 near 1%, with France’s CAC 40 up roughly 0.6% and Germany’s DAX up around 0.7%, led by a strong bounce in chip and semiconductor names — ASML up 2.6%, Infineon up 3.1% and STMicroelectronics up 3.7% — as global sentiment around chipmakers firms following strong demand for SK Hynix’s US share offering. London is the exception: the FTSE 100 opened lower and remains in the red, weighed down by a more than 9% plunge in AstraZeneca, its second-largest constituent, after the gene-silencing drug Wainua failed in a late-stage trial to prevent cardiac complications. The rebound comes even as the Iran conflict remains unresolved: the US struck Iranian targets for a second consecutive day and President Trump declared at the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire memorandum of understanding is “over,” while Iran has threatened large-scale retaliation against US bases in the region. Some cautious optimism is creeping back in on reports that Qatar is pressing Tehran to honour the MoU and contain the escalation. That fragile hope, plus a broadly softer US Dollar, has helped Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ease to 3.06% from Wednesday’s two-month high near 3.10%, even as ECB officials continue to flag the inflationary risk from the oil shock. Currency markets are firmly in risk-on mode: EUR/USD is climbing toward 1.1450, supported by a wider-than-expected German trade surplus of €19.1 billion for May, while GBP/USD has pushed to a three-week high above 1.3400 as fading UK political uncertainty following Keir Starmer’s resignation continues to underpin Sterling. In commodities, Oil is giving back some of Wednesday’s sharp gains, with WTI down almost 2% to around $73.10 as traders take profits after a two-day, near-10% surge, even as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium keeps a floor under prices. Gold has snapped a three-day slide to reclaim $4,100, and Silver has bounced back above $59.00 after touching a two-week low near $57.22 on Wednesday, though the broader precious-metals trend remains fragile after this week’s sharp sell-off. Crypto markets remain the notable holdout from the rebound: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are all still lower on the day, with the total crypto market cap down 2.1% to around $2.21 trillion and the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 22, “Extreme Fear.” Attention now turns to the Fed’s June meeting minutes — the first under Chair Kevin Warsh — digested overnight, and to US weekly jobless claims data due later in the session. Session Overview European equities stage a cautious rebound led by chipmakers after Wednesday’s Iran-driven rout, even as AstraZeneca’s 9% plunge keeps the FTSE 100 in the red and the Iran conflict itself remains far from resolved. Thursday’s European session has turned into a relief rally after Wednesday’s sharp sell-off: the pan-European Stoxx 600 is up around 0.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up close to 1%, with France’s CAC 40 gaining around 0.6% and Germany’s DAX adding roughly 0.7%, clawing back a slice of Wednesday’s 2%-plus declines. The rebound is being driven by semiconductor and technology names, with ASML up 2.6%, Infineon up 3.1% and STMicroelectronics up 3.7%, tracking a broader global bid for chip stocks after strong investor demand for SK Hynix’s upcoming US share offering. London is bucking the trend: the FTSE 100 opened around 0.5% lower and remains the region’s laggard after AstraZeneca, its second-largest index constituent, tumbled more than 9% — its steepest one-day fall since 2017 — following a failed late-stage trial of its Wainua drug in patients with a rare cardiac disease. Crucially, the equity bounce is happening despite an Iran conflict that remains unresolved: the US struck Iranian targets for a second consecutive day, President Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara that, as far as he is concerned, the ceasefire memorandum of understanding is over, and Iran has threatened large-scale retaliation against US military bases in the region. Markets appear to be drawing some comfort instead from reports that Qatar is pressing Tehran to implement the existing MoU and contain the escalation, alongside a pullback in oil prices from Wednesday’s spike. That fragile optimism is visible across rates and currencies. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has eased to around 3.06%, down from Wednesday’s two-month high near 3.10%, even as traders continue to price in additional ECB tightening this year and ECB officials keep flagging the inflationary risk from the oil shock. EUR/USD is climbing toward the 1.1450 area near 1.1435, up from Wednesday’s close near 1.1398, helped by a broadly softer US Dollar and a wider-than-expected German trade surplus

Asian Shares Rally on Chip Rebound as Oil Extends Gains for a Third Session, Bond Yields Surge on Iran Escalation; RBNZ Delivers Hawkish Hike, China Inflation Data Awaited | Capital Street FX Asian Session Technical Analysis · 9 July 2026 Skip to main content Thursday, 9 July 2026  ·  Asian Session Technical Analysis · LIVE · Updated 3:30 PM HKT / SGT ▸ ASIA RALLIES ON CHIP REBOUND · OIL UP 3RD DAY, BRENT TOPS $80 · RBNZ HIKES TO 2.50% · BOND ROUT DEEPENS Asian Shares Rally on Chip Rebound as Oil Extends Its Advance for a Third Straight Session and Brent Clears $80, Bond Yields Surge on Renewed Iran Strikes; RBNZ Delivers Hawkish Hike, China Inflation Data Awaited USD/JPY ~162.42 ▲ holding just under 40-year highs as the Dollar ticks back toward its own yield support · NZD/USD ~0.5724 ▲ extending its RBNZ-led bounce after the Bank’s first hike in three years · Copper ~$6.13 ▶ range-bound as US tariff hearings on 60 countries cloud the demand outlook · Wheat ~$6.13 ▲ at a one-month high two sessions ahead of Friday’s WASDE report · Hang Seng ~24,014.50 ▲ up over 2.8% on the chip-sector relief bounce, though bond-yield pressure caps gains · Dogecoin ~$0.071 ▼ pinned near its 52-week low as crypto’s risk-off mood persists · BNB ~$569.35 ▲ steadying alongside the broader crypto pullback despite EU MiCA-driven service restrictions Analyst: Capital Street FX Research Desk · Session: Tokyo · Hong Kong · Singapore · Sydney · Thursday, 9 July 2026 · LIVE · DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING CURRENT SESSION (updated 3:30 PM HKT): Asia-Pacific equities are climbing through the afternoon as semiconductor names get a reprieve from the heavy selling that dragged the sector lower earlier in the week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has climbed 2.3% to break a three-day losing streak, while South Korea’s KOSPI has jumped 3.8%, driven by a 3.6% rise in Samsung Electronics and a 7.5% surge in SK Hynix as investors buy into the recent chipmaker sell-off; Nvidia rallied 3.6% overnight after media reports that China plans to allow its top AI firms to buy a limited number of the company’s H200 chips. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has added more than 2.8% to trade near 24,014.50, tracking the region-wide bounce, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index is up 0.8%. That risk-on tone is unfolding alongside a fresh escalation out of the Middle East: oil prices have extended their advance for a third straight session after President Trump said the interim agreement with Iran to end the war “was over,” with the US military launching fresh strikes on Iran for a second day to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude has cleared $80 a barrel for the first time since June 22, up around 9% on the week, even as Trump said later he did not expect a return to full-scale war. That combination of resilient risk appetite and a renewed oil-driven inflation scare has hit bonds hard: the global bond rout has deepened in Asian trade, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield up 1.5 basis points to 2.880% — the highest since September 1996 — while Australia’s 10-year yield has climbed 4 basis points to 4.924%, its highest since early June, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has added another 2 basis points to 4.586% after rising 4bps overnight. Fed funds futures now imply about 38 basis points of policy tightening this year, back to where pricing sat a week ago, following Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, which showed a handful of participants already saw a case to raise rates before the committee ultimately agreed to hold in June. Currency markets have reacted more modestly: USD/JPY has actually eased about 0.2% to 162.42, unable to fully capture its own yield support and holding just under the 40-year peak of 162.84, with speculators still wary of Japanese intervention after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s repeated warnings. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first Official Cash Rate hike in three years overnight, lifting the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50% and flagging further tightening as likely, even as four of six committee members described inflation risks as “broadly balanced” — a dovish-leaning hike that has still pushed NZD/USD back above the 0.5700 handle to trade near 0.5724, its firmest level in roughly a week. In commodities, Copper is holding range-bound near $6.13 a pound, capped below its 20- and 50-day moving averages as the US begins three days of tariff hearings covering 60 countries, while Wheat sits at a fresh one-month high near $6.13 a bushel on tight US stocks, reduced acreage and the smallest Hard Red Winter crop since 1957/58, with the pivotal July WASDE report — the first to publish 2026/27 wheat-by-class projections — due Friday. China’s June CPI and PPI figures are due later in the session and will be watched closely for confirmation that deflationary pressure is easing. In crypto, the broader risk-off mood that gripped markets after Wednesday’s escalation persists: Bitcoin remains capped below its $64,000 resistance near $62,000-$62,500, weighed down by a $7.7 billion contraction in the stablecoin market in June — its steepest drop since the 2022 TerraUSD collapse — and Dogecoin is pinned near its 52-week low around $0.071 after falling roughly 5% on Wednesday, while BNB trades near $569.35, still pressured by new EU MiCA stablecoin rules that took effect July 1 and have forced Binance to restrict services in several member states even as the token’s underlying network posted a milestone in tokenized-stock trading volume this week. Asian Session Overview Asian equities climb as chipmakers rebound — Nikkei +2.3%, KOSPI +3.8%, Hang Seng +2.8% — even as oil extends its advance for a third session and Brent clears $80 on renewed US strikes against Iran; the global bond rout deepens, with 10-year JGB yields at their highest since 1996 near 2.88% and US 10-year yields near 4.59%; the RBNZ delivers its first hike in three years, lifting NZD/USD back above 0.5724, while USD/JPY

Trump Declares Iran Deal “Over”, Threatens to “Hit Them Hard Tonight”; Dow Sheds 700+ Points as Oil Rockets 7%, Yields Ease on Haven Bid Ahead of Warsh’s First FOMC Minutes | Capital Street FX US Session Technical Analysis · 8 July 2026 Skip to main content Wednesday, 8 July 2026  ·  US Session Technical Analysis · LIVE · Updated 11:10 AM ET ▸ TRUMP: “WE’RE GOING TO HIT THEM HARD TONIGHT” · DOW DOWN 700+ · OIL SPIKES 7% · VIX +11% · FOMC MINUTES 2PM ET Trump Declares Iran Deal “Over” and Threatens to “Hit Them Hard Tonight” as Wall Street Extends Losses, Oil Rockets 7%, Treasury Yields Ease on Haven Bid and Traders Brace for Kevin Warsh’s First FOMC Minutes USD/CAD ~1.4238 ▲ firm above the 1.42 handle as the safe-haven Dollar holds a firm bid · USD/CHF ~0.8088 ▲ extending through the 0.8041 swing high as the Greenback outpaces the franc’s own haven bid · Gold ~$4,050.50 ▼ down about 2.6% as a firmer Dollar and rockets in oil overshadow the metal’s traditional haven bid · Corn ~$4.5987 ▲ at a one-month high after a French heatwave damaged nearly a third of the crop, two days ahead of the July WASDE · Nasdaq 100 ~29,050 ▼ underperforming as the chip rout deepens, with the SOX ETF down about 3% · US 30Y ~5.05% ▼ easing slightly as bond-market haven demand offsets the oil-driven inflation impulse ahead of the $39bn 10-year auction · Bitcoin ~$62,150 ▼ slipping back toward $62,000 as roughly $300 million in longs are liquidated · Dogecoin ~$0.0721 ▼ the weakest large-cap major, tracking the broader risk-off pullback Analyst: Capital Street FX Research Desk · Session: New York · Chicago · Toronto · Wednesday, 8 July 2026 · LIVE · DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING CURRENT SESSION (updated 11:10 AM ET): US stocks opened lower and have stayed under pressure through the first ninety minutes of trading after President Trump, speaking from the second day of the NATO summit in Ankara, declared that the ceasefire memorandum of understanding his administration signed with Iran three weeks ago “is over,” adding “I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum” — and later escalated further, threatening to attack Iran again and saying “we’re going to hit them hard tonight.” As of 11:04 AM ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 788 points, or roughly 1.5%, near 52,137, with the S&P 500 off around 0.6-0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite down about 0.7% near 25,635; the VIX has jumped over 11% to trade near 18.00, while the Nasdaq 100 continues to underperform on a renewed rout in chipmakers — the iShares Semiconductor ETF is down around 3% after Samsung Electronics slid over 8% in Seoul despite flagging a 19-fold profit surge, and South Korea’s Kospi crashed 5.35% into a bear market. The remarks followed overnight US strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets, Washington’s revocation of the waiver that had allowed Iranian oil sales, and Iranian drone and missile attacks on US-linked bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Crude has extended its advance to more than 7%, with WTI near $75.40 and Brent above $79.60 — both fresh two-week highs — lifting Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Diamondback and Occidental while airlines and cruise lines — Carnival, Norwegian, United, Delta — drop 2-4% on the fuel-cost shock. The safe-haven Dollar remains firm, with USD/CAD above 1.42 and USD/CHF extending through its 0.8041 swing high; notably, Treasury yields have not followed oil higher this morning — the 10-year has actually eased about 1 basis point to near 4.55% and the 30-year has slipped marginally to near 5.05%, as haven demand for government bonds is, for now, offsetting the oil-driven inflation impulse ahead of a $39 billion 10-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET and the session’s decisive catalyst: the FOMC’s June 16-17 Meeting Minutes, the first released under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, due at 2:00 PM ET. Warsh characterized his first meeting — a 9-9 split on whether to hike in 2026 — as “a good family fight,” and September rate-hike odds sit near 58-63% on CME FedWatch, up from about 56-57% earlier in the week. Gold has turned sharply lower, down roughly 2.6% and trading near $4,050.50 as a firmer Dollar and the oil spike overshadow its haven appeal; Corn holds a one-month high near $4.5987 a bushel after an intense French heatwave damaged nearly a third of that country’s crop and ahead of Friday’s July WASDE; and in crypto, Bitcoin has slipped toward $62,000 with roughly $300 million liquidated from the market and Strategy disclosing a rare 3,588-BTC sale, while Dogecoin, the weakest of the large-cap majors, trades near $0.072. Big Tech adds to the drag after Apple lost its appeal against the EU’s “gatekeeper” designation, with most megacaps down more than 1% premarket, though Apple itself is steadier after unveiling a chip-supply agreement with Broadcom worth over $30 billion. Trump also said he ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut off all trade with Spain, branding Madrid a “terrible partner” in NATO, and meets Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy later in the day. Overnight, the RBNZ delivered its first rate hike in three years, lifting the OCR to 2.50%. US Session Overview Wall Street extends losses as Trump declares the Iran ceasefire MoU “over” and threatens to “hit them hard tonight,” with the Dow down about 700-800 points; oil rockets more than 7% toward $75.40 WTI and $79.60 Brent; the Dollar holds a firm haven bid while Treasury yields actually ease into the session, with the 10-year near 4.55% and the 30-year near 5.05%; Gold sinks over 2.5% toward $4,050; Corn holds a one-month high near on European crop damage; the chip rout drags the Nasdaq 100 lower and the VIX up over 11%; Bitcoin and Dogecoin slide with $300 million in longs liquidated; and traders count down to the FOMC’s June Minutes — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — due at 2:00 PM ET, alongside a

Trump Declares Iran Deal “Over” at NATO Summit as Iran Drone-Strikes US Base in Bahrain, Oil Holds Near Two-Week Highs, Dollar Firms Ahead of Fed Minutes | Capital Street FX European Session Technical Analysis · 8 July 2026 Skip to main content Wednesday, 8 July 2026  ·  European Session Technical Analysis · LIVE ▸ TRUMP: IRAN MOU “IS OVER” · EUROPEAN STOCKS AT ONE-WEEK LOW · OIL SPIKES 6% Trump Declares Iran Deal “Over” From NATO Summit as European Shares Slump to a One-Week Low, Oil Spikes 6% on Bahrain Drone Strike, and Trump Threatens to Cut Off Trade With Spain EUR/USD ~1.1410 ▼ pinned near 1.1400 as the safe-haven Dollar firms on Trump’s Ankara remarks · GBP/USD ~1.3343 ▼ easing from Tuesday’s close as Sterling loses traction against a firmer Dollar · Silver ~$58.65 ▼ holding below the $60 handle as firmer yields cap the metal · Crude Oil (WTI) ~$74.44 ▲ up over 6% since Tuesday’s close and testing a two-week high after the Bahrain strike · FTSE 100 ~10,513 ▼ down around 1.6% and back below 10,500 as the STOXX 600 hits a one-week low · DAX ▼ down more than 2% and CAC 40 ▼ down over 2% lead continental losses; Spain’s IBEX ▼ a three-week low on Trump’s trade threat · EU 30Y (German Bund) ~3.63% ▲ extending its climb on oil-driven inflation risk and hawkish ECB repricing · Ethereum ~$1,736.90 ▼ capped near multi-month lows by the firmer Dollar · XRP ~$1.0797 ▼ tracking the broader crypto pullback Analyst: Capital Street FX Research Desk · Session: London · Frankfurt · Paris · Wednesday, 8 July 2026 · LIVE · DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING CURRENT SESSION: European shares have now slid to a one-week low as the session progresses, with the pan-European STOXX 600 down around 1.6% at 636.08 points — on track for its biggest one-day drop since the height of the Iran conflict in mid-March — after President Trump, speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara, said the ceasefire memorandum of understanding his administration signed with Iran three weeks ago “is over” and that dealing with Tehran is “just a waste of time.” The remarks followed overnight US strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets and Tuesday’s Iranian attack on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. In the immediate aftermath, Iran’s army launched drone and missile attacks on Bahrain’s Isa Air Base and Kuwait, triggering missile-alert sirens in Manama for a third time this morning — the first direct strikes on Gulf-based American installations since the truce was signed. Defence stocks are down around 3.5% while a jump in crude has lifted the energy sector by roughly 2%; airlines including Air France and Wizz Air have lost more than 5% each on the higher fuel-cost outlook, auto stocks are off 3.3%, and Lufthansa has dropped over 5% after a Citigroup downgrade to “sell.” Adding to the risk-off tone, Trump said he has ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut off all trade with Spain, branding Madrid a “terrible partner” in NATO — sending Spain’s IBEX to a three-week low and the worst performer among regional bourses. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 are both down more than 2%, while London’s FTSE 100 has fallen back below 10,500. Crude oil has surged over 6% since Tuesday’s close, with WTI testing its 200-day moving average and Brent above $78, on the reignited Hormuz-Bahrain risk premium. In FX, EUR/USD remains pinned near 1.1400 and GBP/USD has eased on firmer safe-haven Dollar demand, while traders have repriced ECB rate-hike expectations higher, now pricing 38 basis points of tightening this year, up from 25bps on Tuesday. Silver holds below the psychologically important $60 mark as firmer Treasury yields cap the metal, and German 30-year Bund yields are extending their climb on oil-driven inflation risk and Germany’s expanded 2027 budget plans. In crypto, Ethereum and XRP both remain capped by the firmer Dollar and cautious broader risk appetite. Overnight, New Zealand’s central bank delivered its first Official Cash Rate hike in three years, lifting the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50%. Elsewhere, mourners thronged the streets of Najaf for the funeral procession of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, ahead of his burial in Iran on Thursday, and NATO leaders continue a second day of talks in Ankara after Trump said the US “could remove all our soldiers out of Europe,” even as Bloomberg reports over $50 billion in fresh transatlantic defence contracts agreed at the summit. Markets now count down to the Federal Reserve’s June Meeting Minutes — the first released under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — due at 18:00 GMT (2:00 PM ET), the session’s decisive catalyst. European Session Overview Europe slides to a one-week low as Trump declares the Iran ceasefire MoU “over” from the NATO summit in Ankara, Iran drone-strikes US-linked bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, oil spikes more than 6%, the STOXX 600 suffers its biggest one-day drop since March, Trump threatens to cut off all trade with Spain, the DAX and CAC 40 lead continental losses, German 30-year Bund yields extend their climb on inflation risk and a hawkish ECB repricing, Ethereum and XRP both stay capped by Dollar strength, the RBNZ delivers its first hike in three years, and traders count down to the FOMC’s June Minutes — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — due later in the session. The dominant story of the European session is the sharp deterioration in the fragile US-Iran truce, and markets are now reacting in earnest. Speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara — convened under the shadow of the ongoing conflict and already tense over European allies’ reluctance to support Operation Epic Fury against Iran — a furious President Trump declared that the ceasefire memorandum of understanding signed exactly three weeks ago “is over,” telling reporters “I don’t want to deal with them anymore … as far as I’m concerned, it’s a waste of time dealing with them.” The

US Strikes Iran After Hormuz Tanker Attacks as Oil Surges, Kospi’s Chip Rout Deepens, Hang Seng Extends Gains, and RBNZ Decision Looms | Capital Street FX Asian Session Technical Analysis · 8 July 2026 Skip to main content Wednesday, 8 July 2026  ·  Asian Session Technical Analysis · LIVE ▸ US STRIKES IRAN · OIL SURGES · CHIP ROUT HITS KOSPI US Strikes Iran After Hormuz Tanker Attacks as Oil Surges Above $72, Kospi’s Chip Rout Deepens, Hang Seng Extends Its Gains, and the RBNZ Decision Looms USD/JPY ~161.90 ▼ pulling back from four-decade highs, still within reach of the 162 handle · AUD/USD ~0.6941 ▼ little changed, holding near three-month lows on risk-off flows · Aluminium (LME 3M) ~$3,153.93 ▲ extending its snap-back higher as the Hormuz escalation revives a Gulf-supply risk premium · Natural Gas (Henry Hub) ~$3.27 ▲ holding firm near its one-week high as the Qatari LNG tanker strike puts gas-shipping risk back in focus · Hang Seng ~24,104.06 ▲ surging to a fourth straight session of gains on a tech rally and a buoyant IPO market · Litecoin ~$42.65 ▼ giving back part of its bounce off last week’s swing low · Solana ~$77.24 ▼ pulling back from the $80 resistance band toward its 50-day EMA Analyst: Capital Street FX Research Desk · Session: Tokyo · Hong Kong · Sydney · Wednesday, 8 July 2026 · LIVE · DEVELOPING: The Asian session opens under a fresh geopolitical shock after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday — a Qatari-owned LNG carrier, a Saudi-flagged crude tanker, and a third vessel — prompting US Central Command to launch a wave of retaliatory strikes early Wednesday that hit more than 80 Iranian targets, including air-defence and radar sites, anti-ship missile batteries and small boats used by the Revolutionary Guard. The US Treasury has also revoked the sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell crude on the open market, and WTI crude has surged more than 5% to trade above $72 a barrel. The shock is rippling unevenly across Asian markets: South Korea’s Kospi is extending Tuesday’s chip-stock rout even after Samsung Electronics posted a record quarterly profit, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is notching a fourth consecutive session of gains as a rally in Tencent, SMIC, Lenovo and Xiaomi, alongside a buoyant IPO market led by autonomous-driving firm Momenta Global, offsets the geopolitical risk. In FX, the Japanese yen has pulled back slightly to near 161.90, still within reach of its 40-year high, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterating that Tokyo stands ready to intervene, while the Australian dollar is little changed near 0.6941 after RBA Assistant Governor Hunter warned the central bank would act if the oil shock lifts inflation expectations. New Zealand’s central bank is expected to hike its Official Cash Rate to 2.50% later in the session. In commodities, Aluminium has extended its bounce to above $3,150 a tonne and Natural Gas is holding firm near $3.27 per MMBtu as the Hormuz escalation, and specifically the direct strike on a Gulf LNG carrier, revives concerns over energy-shipping risk more broadly. In crypto, Litecoin and Solana have both pulled back from their recent bounces, giving back some ground even as broader risk sentiment turns cautious. Markets remain focused on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s Chinese inflation data as the next major catalysts. Asian Session Overview Asian markets open to a fresh Strait of Hormuz shock as the US strikes Iran in retaliation for tanker attacks and oil surges past $72, the Kospi’s chip-stock rout deepens even as Samsung posts a record profit, the Hang Seng extends its rally on tech strength and a buoyant IPO market, the yen holds near 40-year lows with intervention risk building, the Aussie dollar softens as the RBA flags an oil-driven inflation risk, Aluminium and Natural Gas both catch a fresh geopolitical bid, Litecoin and Solana extend their recoveries, and the RBNZ’s rate decision looms as the session’s next scheduled catalyst. The overnight escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is the dominant story of the Asian session. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on three commercial vessels transiting the strait on Tuesday: the Qatari-owned LNG carrier Al Rekayyat, which suffered an engine-room fire and was at risk of exploding; the Saudi-flagged supertanker Wedyan; and a third vessel that reported structural damage. In response, US Central Command said it launched a “series of powerful strikes” early Wednesday, hitting more than 80 Iranian targets with precision munitions, including air-defence systems, radar sites, anti-ship missile batteries and small boats used by the Revolutionary Guard. The US Treasury separately revoked the sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell crude and petrochemicals on the open market, a significant additional escalation on top of the military response. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have both formally condemned the attacks on their vessels, and shipping-security analysts warn that maritime traffic through the strait is likely to thin sharply again as owners reassess risk, with some rerouting toward the Red Sea despite ongoing Houthi threats there. The chip-stock rout that first rattled Wall Street on Tuesday is extending deeper into the Asian session, with South Korea’s Kospi under renewed pressure even after Samsung Electronics reported a record quarterly profit, as investors instead focus on stretched AI-hardware valuations and the prospect of a broader unwind following Monday’s semiconductor-led selloff. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is also softer, tracking the regional tech weakness. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is bucking the trend, however, surging roughly 2% to notch a fourth consecutive session of gains, supported by a rally in Tencent, SMIC, Lenovo, Kuaishou and Xiaomi, alongside continued strength in the city’s IPO market after autonomous-driving firm Momenta Global priced its Hong Kong listing above expectations. Beijing and Hong Kong authorities have also announced new measures to expand cross-border currency, bond and gold trading, aiming to reinforce the city’s role as the leading offshore yuan hub, while investors look ahead to China’s June CPI and PPI data

NATO Summit Rolls On in Ankara as Chip-Stock Selloff Sweeps Wall Street, Dow Hits Fresh Record, Strait of Hormuz Tanker Strike Lifts Crude, While Bitcoin and XRP Stall | Capital Street FX US Session Technical Analysis · 7 July 2026 Skip to main content Tuesday, 7 July 2026  ·  US Session Technical Analysis · LIVE ▸ NATO SUMMIT DAY 1 · CHIP SELLOFF HITS WALL STREET · DOW AT RECORD NATO Summit Rolls Into the US Afternoon as a Chip-Stock Selloff Sweeps Wall Street, the Dow Hits a Fresh Record, a Strait of Hormuz Tanker Strike Lifts Crude, While Bitcoin and XRP Both Stall USD/CAD ~1.4210 ▲ pinned near one-year highs on Trump’s USMCA termination threat · USD/CHF ~0.8062 ▼ firmer as the SNB holds at zero for a fourth meeting · Gold ~$4,145 ▼ consolidating ahead of today’s ADP report and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes · Crude Oil (WTI) ~$69.35 ▲ a one-week high after a tanker strike near the Strait of Hormuz · Nasdaq 100 ~29,640 ▼ pausing after Monday’s record as a chip-stock rotation offsets SpaceX’s index debut · US 20Y Yield ~4.85% ▲ edging higher into tomorrow’s FOMC minutes · BTC/USD ~$63,230 ▲ easing off a two-week high near $64,400 · XRP/USD ~$1.125 ▼ stalling below resistance as the CLARITY Act timeline slips Analyst: Capital Street FX Research Desk · Session: New York · Chicago · Toronto · Tuesday, 7 July 2026 · LIVE · DEVELOPING: Wall Street trades a two-sided session on Tuesday as the chip-stock rotation that began in Asia — where South Korea’s Kospi tripped a circuit breaker and closed down nearly 5% — rolls into US trade, dragging Micron down roughly 5% with KLA, Marvell Technology, Broadcom and AMD also lower and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) off more than 3%, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average notches a fresh intraday record on rotation into healthcare, financials and select Big Tech names including Eli Lilly, JPMorgan Chase and Microsoft. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are each modestly lower on the session. Separately, NATO leaders remain in Ankara for the second half of a two-day summit built around Tuesday’s Defence Industry Forum, with Secretary General Mark Rutte confirming fresh contracts including Saab reconnaissance aircraft. In FX, USD/CAD holds near one-year highs around 1.4210 as President Trump’s threat to terminate the USMCA trade pact compounds soft Canadian growth data, while USD/CHF has firmed modestly to around 0.8062 after the Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at zero for a fourth straight meeting. In commodities, Crude Oil (WTI) has jumped to a one-week high near $69.35 a barrel after a fully laden LNG carrier was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh questions about the durability of the US-Iran shipping-safety agreement, even as OPEC+’s weekend decision to raise production quotas and Saudi Aramco’s sharp price cuts for Asian buyers keep oil not far from four-month lows. Gold is consolidating near $4,145 an ounce as markets await today’s ADP employment report and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. In equities, the Nasdaq 100 is pausing near 29,640 after Monday’s 1.3% record run, even as SpaceX officially joins the index Tuesday. In rates, the US 20-year Treasury yield is edging up toward 4.85% alongside a broader global bond selloff. In crypto, Bitcoin is trading near $63,230, up more than 2% on the day but easing back from an overnight two-week high near $64,400 as falling open interest raises questions about the rally’s staying power, while XRP is softer near $1.125, stalling just below the $1.13–$1.14 resistance band after Standard Chartered slashed its long-run price target and the CLARITY Act’s Senate timeline slipped to late July at the earliest. US Session Overview Wall Street trades a two-sided session as a chip-stock selloff that started in Asia rolls through US trade even as the Dow hits a fresh intraday record, the loonie sits pinned near one-year lows on Trump’s USMCA threat, the Swiss franc firms as the SNB holds at zero, gold consolidates ahead of today’s ADP report, a Strait of Hormuz tanker strike lifts crude to a one-week high, the Nasdaq 100 pauses after Monday’s record as SpaceX joins the index, 20-year yields edge higher, and Bitcoin and XRP both stall below key resistance — all with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes looming as the week’s decisive catalyst. NATO’s 36th summit continues in Ankara on Tuesday, with Secretary General Mark Rutte’s Defence Industry Forum running through the day and into the US afternoon as leaders from all 32 member states, including President Trump, work through commitments on allied defence spending, industrial production and continued support for Ukraine. Rutte has already confirmed that the alliance will buy up to ten reconnaissance aircraft from Sweden’s Saab, part of tens of billions of dollars in new contracts expected before the summit closes. That backdrop is running alongside a much larger story for US markets: a chip-stock rotation that began in Asia’s Tuesday session, where South Korea’s Kospi tripped a circuit breaker and closed down nearly 5% following a steep slide in memory-chip names, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 2%. The selloff has rolled straight into Wall Street, where Micron Technology is down roughly 5%, with KLA, Marvell Technology, Broadcom and AMD also lower and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) off more than 3%. Yet the broader market is absorbing the rotation reasonably well: the Dow Jones Industrial Average has pushed to a fresh all-time intraday high, adding modestly on the day as investors rotate into healthcare, financials and select Big Tech names, with Eli Lilly, JPMorgan Chase and Microsoft all firmer, while Walmart is higher after announcing price cuts on staple goods. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are each modestly softer on the session, and SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 index on Tuesday, a listing expected to trigger meaningful passive buying from funds that track the benchmark. In FX, USD/CAD is holding near one-year highs around 1.4210, with the Canadian dollar