Gold crossed $5,000 for the first time in early 2026 driven by four converging forces: escalating geopolitical tensions (Iran military build-up, Middle East instability), persistent real-yield compression as the Fed holds rates at 3.50–3.75%, aggressive central bank buying (863 tonnes in 2025), and structural de-dollarization by sovereign institutions. The precious metal is now in “price discovery” territory with no meaningful technical overhead until prior ATH levels. The bullish fundamental thesis remains intact as long as inflation stays above 3%, geopolitical risk stays elevated, and the Fed avoids rapid rate hikes.

Silver at $100/oz is a realistic target for 2026 based on both technical and fundamental factors. The silver market is in its fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficit, driven primarily by solar panel manufacturing (photovoltaic cells require pure silver), EV production, and AI data center power infrastructure. Goldman Sachs forecasts silver to average $85–100/oz in 2026, with Citi targeting $110 in H2. The gold-silver ratio compressing from 80+ toward 46–57 suggests silver still has relative outperformance to deliver. The key technical gateway is the $92.15 swing high — a confirmed close above it opens the $100 target.

The outcome is genuinely binary. If talks break down — or if the US moves to deploy additional carrier strike groups and intercept Iranian tankers — Brent could spike $10–20/bbl toward $80–90 in a risk event. Iran’s 3.3 million b/d of production would effectively become stranded, and the Strait of Hormuz risk would see 20+ mb/d of global supply threatened. Conversely, a successful diplomatic agreement would trigger an immediate selloff of the $5–8 geopolitical premium embedded in current prices, taking Brent toward $65–67 rapidly. Conservative traders should wait for Thursday’s outcome before establishing new crude positions.

Natural gas markets are highly seasonal. The January spike to $7.72/MMBtu (Henry Hub) was driven by Winter Storm Fern, which simultaneously froze production infrastructure and triggered a surge in heating demand. That weather event is over. Production is recovering, the withdrawal season is ending (EIA projects sub-1.9 Tcf in storage by March-end), and Permian pipeline capacity additions are set to accelerate H2 2026 supply growth. The technical confirmation — a breakdown below the ascending channel from 2023 lows — signals the structural uptrend is exhausted for now. The path of least resistance is lower until the next heating season or a supply disruption emerges.

The three highest-priority events for commodity traders are: (1) the EIA weekly crude inventory report — a confirmed large build (matching API’s 13.4M barrels) pressures WTI below $65; (2) Thursday’s US–Iran talks outcome — the single largest tail-risk for oil; and (3) the Eurozone CPI final and German GDP — which drive EUR/USD dynamics that cascade into dollar-denominated commodity pricing. Australia’s CPI print (already released early today) is significant for the RBA’s tightening path, which impacts AUD and indirectly affects commodity export sentiment.

The gold-silver ratio at ~57.8 means it currently takes 57.8 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, the ratio has averaged between 40–60 over long periods. During bull markets in precious metals, the ratio tends to compress as silver outperforms. Having fallen from above 80 in mid-2025, the current reading confirms an active precious metals bull market where silver is in catch-up mode. If the ratio compresses further toward 45–50, and gold holds above $5,000, that implies silver trading in the $100–$115 range — consistent with analyst targets. This metric is one of the most reliable signals of speculative and industrial sentiment in the complex.

The picture is bifurcated. Precious metals (gold, silver) and industrial metals with structural deficits (copper) are in strong bull cycles driven by de-dollarization, electrification, and geopolitical safe-haven demand. Energy markets face structural oversupply with OPEC+ gradually adding back barrels and US/non-OPEC+ production rising — the EIA forecasts Brent averaging just $58/bbl for 2026, well below today’s spot. Agricultural commodities sit in between: wheat and staple foods are resilient; softs and oilseeds are subject to trade policy volatility. For experienced traders, the clearest opportunities are long precious metals on dips and short natural gas on rallies.