Trend Structure: Gold is in the sharpest corrective phase of its remarkable bull run — down 21.9% from the all-time high of $5,603.22 set on January 29, 2026. The daily chart shows a clear descending channel with progressively lower highs and lower lows since the peak. Price has broken below the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $4,938 and is now testing the 0.618 retracement zone at $4,528. The moving average envelope shows price decisively below all three averages (short, medium, long), confirming broad-based selling pressure that transcends a simple corrective pause.

Candlestick Pattern: Last week’s action produced a textbook bearish engulfing week — the largest weekly candle to the downside since 2011 per CNBC — with long lower wicks on individual daily candles indicating intraday buying attempts that are consistently overwhelmed by institutional selling. The RSI on the daily chart has dropped sharply toward oversold territory (reading approximately 27 on the chart’s lower panel), a level that historically precedes at least a temporary bounce in gold.

Fibonacci Analysis: The Fibonacci grid drawn from the swing low of $3,863.48 (1 Fib) to the all-time high of $5,603.22 (0 Fib) provides the clearest roadmap. Price has fallen through the 0.236 level ($5,192), the 0.382 level ($4,938), the 0.5 level ($4,733), and is now trading between the 0.618 ($4,528) and the 0.786 ($4,163.79) levels. The current price of $4,376.98 sits in a critical intermediate zone. The 0.786 level at approximately $4,163 represents the last technical defence before the $3,863 swing base becomes the next major reference.

Macro Context: LiteFinance projects gold to consolidate in the $4,645–$4,760 range for March 23, with the medium-term outlook remaining bullish driven by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying (JPMorgan: 585 tonnes/quarter demand expected), and potential Fed easing later in 2026. J.P. Morgan maintains a year-end target of $5,000/oz. The current correction is characterised as a “tourist money” exit — the retail and systematic hedge fund positioning that piled in during the January surge is now unwinding.

Trend Structure: Silver is experiencing one of the most aggressive corrective sequences in recent memory. From its peak above $121.43/oz in early 2026 to today’s $65.66, the metal has lost 45.9% — a staggering move that has erased nearly half the value from the 2025–2026 peak. The RSI on the daily chart is approaching deeply oversold territory (approximately 32 on the chart panel), and the chart shows price in a near-vertical descent that has broken through multiple Fibonacci levels in rapid succession. The 0.5 level at $84.76 and the 0.618 at $76.11 have both been violated.

Candlestick Pattern: This is a “falling knife” pattern — characterised by consecutive large-range bearish candles with minimal lower shadow (no buying interest), confirming complete loss of support at each technical level. The weekly pattern shows the third consecutive bearish week with accelerating momentum, consistent with a forced liquidation or systematic de-risking by large funds. CNBC noted this was silver’s “biggest one-day rout since the 1980s” in late January, and the selling has continued with brief pauses only.

Fibonacci Analysis: The Fibonacci grid from the swing base at $48.10 to the ATH at $121.43 shows the 0.786 level at $63.79 as the next major technical support. With price at $65.66, this level is approximately $1.87 away — potentially reachable intraday or in the next 24 hours. The structural supply deficit (5th consecutive year), accelerating industrial demand from EVs, solar, and 5G, and the major-bank consensus target of $56–$65 for 2026 all point to the $60–$65 zone as a potentially significant long-term accumulation area.

Macro Context: Silver’s situation is uniquely complex. The metal failed to behave as a pure safe-haven (gold fell, silver fell harder) because its industrial demand component is under pressure from global growth fears. However, the structural supply deficit story is entirely unchanged — and historically represents one of the most compelling long-term commodity thesis setups in the market. CSFX’s March 19 analysis advised: “Do NOT buy silver today — let the trade come to you. The $60–$64 zone is where ascending broadening wedge support sits.”

Trend Structure: WTI crude oil is in the most dramatic uptrend of any liquid commodity this year. From the swing low near $54.95 in late 2025, the price surged all the way to the $119.61 zone (52-week high), a move of approximately $64 per barrel driven entirely by the Hormuz supply shock. Remarkably, the current price of $99.05 sits above every single Fibonacci retracement level on the chart — including the 0.236 level at $104.35 which acts as overhead resistance. The moving average envelope has dramatically shifted to the upside, with the short, medium, and long-term averages all rising steeply and price trading decisively above them. RSI at approximately 76 signals overbought conditions.

Candlestick Pattern: The daily chart shows extreme volatility candles — massive-range days with wicks on both ends — consistent with news-driven binary scenario trading. The recent sequence shows a sharp sell-off from the $119.61 peak followed by a “V-bottom” recovery from near $68 levels, and now a second leg of buying pushing back toward $100. This “W-bottom” or double-bottom pattern around the 0.786 Fib at $68.78 is technically significant and could signal re-entry points for buyers on any pullback to the $87–$95 zone.

Fibonacci Analysis: The Fibonacci grid from $54.95 (1 Fib base) to $119.61 (0 Fib high) places the key retracement levels as follows: 0.236 at $104.35, 0.382 at $94.91, 0.5 at $87.28, 0.618 at $79.65. Current price at $99.05 has recovered above the 0.382 level, sitting between 0.382 ($94.91) and 0.236 ($104.35). The RSI momentum at 76+ confirms buyers are firmly in control in the short term. However, the RSI overbought reading also flags mean-reversion risk if Hormuz diplomatic progress materialises.

Geopolitical Scenario Analysis: WTI crude is the most binary commodity in the current environment. The EIA’s framework is clear: Brent stays above $95/b for approximately two months before potentially falling to $80 in Q3 if transit resumes. Goldman Sachs raised forecasts twice in two weeks. The Investing.com signal on WTI futures is currently “Strong Buy” based on technical indicators. The range-trade setup between $87 and $100 is the highest-probability tactical approach given the binary geopolitical risk.

Trend Structure: Natural gas presents the most intriguing setup of the four commodities. The chart tells a dramatic story: the market ran from near $2.764 in November to a spectacular spike high at $7.499 in late January 2026 (a +171% move in under two months) on the back of the Iran war’s disruption to LNG flows through Hormuz and a brief cold weather snap in North America. The price has since collapsed back to $3.09, just 31 cents above the Fibonacci 0 level at $2.764 — essentially completing a full round-trip that has now formed what appears to be a basing/accumulation zone above the key base level.

Candlestick Pattern: The current daily candle sequence shows small-bodied indecision candles with mixed wicks above the $2.764 base — a classic accumulation pattern after a sharp sell-off. The moving average envelope (three bands visible on the chart) shows all averages converging in the $3.09–$3.46 range, which is a hallmark of consolidation before a directional resolution. The RSI at approximately 47 (neutral territory) confirms this is neither overbought nor oversold — the market is genuinely undecided and waiting for a catalyst.

Fibonacci Analysis: The natural gas chart uses a Fibonacci extension grid with the 0 level at $2.764 (the base) and extension levels showing 0.236 at $3.881, 0.382 at $4.573, 0.5 at $5.131, 0.618 at $5.690, 0.786 at $6.486, and the 1.0 extension at $7.499. With current price at $3.09, the first meaningful upside target on any renewed buying is the 0.236 level at $3.881. A break of this level with volume could quickly propel the market toward the $4.50–$5.13 range. On the downside, a break below $2.764 would be structurally bearish and technically signal a much deeper correction is underway.

Macro Context: The EIA forecast a Henry Hub average of ~$3.80/MMBtu in 2026, reflecting mild February storage build. Higher crude oil prices from Hormuz disruption will increase associated gas production — adding downside supply pressure on US prices while European gas remains sharply higher. The asymmetric setup here is compelling: long near $3.10 with a stop below $2.76 offers approximately 1:3+ risk-reward to the $4.50+ target zone.