Trend & Context: Gold has retreated a remarkable 18.9% from its all-time high of $5,603.22 (set January 29, 2026) — a correction that CNBC described as “the worst weekly rout since 2011” for the prior Friday. The culprit is structural: the Fed’s hawkish hold at 3.75% has strengthened the USD, and a strong dollar mechanically pressures dollar-denominated gold. The paradox is that geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict is genuinely elevated, which should be bullish for safe havens. But the macro weight of the dollar is currently winning. Today’s bounce to $4,545 is a corrective move — price is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $4,528.06 from above after breaking through it yesterday and finding a hammer formation. The bounce is technically meaningful but lacks the volume confirmation needed to call a reversal.

Candlestick Analysis: Yesterday’s session produced a hammer candle with a long lower wick testing the 0.618 Fib ($4,528) and daily SMA-200. Today’s follow-through green candle is constructive but the high at $4,602 failed to reclaim the 0.5 Fib at $4,733. The pattern suggests a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal — sellers likely remain active on any move toward $4,700–$4,733.

Trend & Context: Silver’s collapse from approximately $122.74/oz to $72.60 represents a 40.9% drawdown — one of the most violent corrections for the metal in a decade. The breakdown below the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($76.61) was the critical technical event, and while today’s 1.86% bounce looks impressive in isolation, price remains well below that level and below all meaningful moving averages visible on the daily chart. The EMAs are stacked bearishly, fanning downward.

Candlestick Analysis: After several consecutive bearish sessions including a potential falling-window gap, today’s session is producing a green marubozu-style body off a morning low of $71.11. This is consistent with a short-covering rally or technically-driven bounce at oversold extremes, not a fundamental reversal. The stochastic and RSI remain in oversold territory. Until price reclaims and closes above $76.61, the primary trend remains bearish.

Trend & Context: WTI Crude is the single most geopolitically-sensitive commodity in this report. The Hormuz Strait partial closure — carrying ~20 mb/d of global supply — pushed oil from $54.95 pre-war to a spike high of $119.61, a war premium of roughly $30–$35/bbl. Since that spike, price has retraced exactly to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $87.28. At $87.40, WTI is sitting directly on this critical support/resistance pivot. A hold here sets up a range-trade scenario; a break below $87 targets $79.65 (0.618 Fib), consistent with the EIA’s own forecast for Q3 2026 as IEA emergency reserves work their way through the market.

Candlestick Analysis: Yesterday’s session produced a shooting star pattern near the $89.57 high — a bearish signal at resistance. Today’s price action is confirming that signal with a lower open and continued selling, but the 0.5 Fib floor at $87.28 is clearly being defended. The RSI has cooled from overbought levels (~76 on March 23) toward ~55 today, suggesting the mean-reversion sell-off has more room to run if the Hormuz situation de-escalates further.

Trend & Context: Natural gas is the contrarian setup of the four commodities — and potentially the most interesting one. After a historic spike from $2.764 to $7.499 (driven by the Hormuz-related LNG disruption), the market has collapsed back to the $2.764 base support level. At $2.911, price is barely 5% above the floor. The EIA forecasts a Henry Hub average of approximately $3.80/MMBtu for 2026, which represents 31% upside from current levels. Mild February temperatures left US storage above normal, which caps the domestic price in the near term — but any storage draw from a late-season cold snap or European supply re-routing could trigger a sharp reversal.

Candlestick Analysis: The most constructive element of the natural gas chart is the series of hammer and doji candles that have formed near the $2.764–$2.900 support zone over the past several weeks. Today’s session shows a doji/spinning top pattern, suggesting indecision at support. The stochastic oscillator has recovered from deeply oversold levels (~25) toward 46–48, confirming early momentum return without being overbought. The first meaningful resistance is the dotted teal EMA line near $3.032, then $3.439. A sustained close above $3.039 would confirm a recovery phase toward the EIA’s $3.80 target.