Commodity Weekly Outlook
Commodity Weekly Outlook: Inflation Data, Geopolitical Risk
& Demand Signals Set the Tone
Key Macro & Geopolitical Forces Shaping Commodities This Week
Commodity markets are being shaped by three structural forces in February 2026: the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot, historic central bank gold reserve management, and escalating geopolitical risk premiums.
Gold Weekly Outlook XAU/USD
Central bank buying, declining real yields, and safe-haven demand are continuing to underpin gold
Gold is entering this week in bullish territory, trading near the $5,070 level. The Federal Reserve is pricing three 25bp rate cuts in 2026, which is pushing real yields lower and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Central bank purchases have more than doubled since 2022, creating a powerful structural floor.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (XAU/USD) | 5,458 | 5,110 | 4,873 | 4,645 |
Silver Weekly Outlook XAG/USD
Silver is navigating extraordinary volatility as precious-metal flows and industrial demand collide
Silver is entering its fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficit — with estimates suggesting roughly 10% undersupply. China’s growing appetite for silver in photovoltaic solar panels and AI-related electronics is creating a demand floor that is structural rather than cyclical.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (XAG/USD) | 106.00 | 87.99 | 77.13 | 64.23 |
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook WTI / Brent
A violent tug-of-war between a structural surplus and a geopolitical war premium
The market is fundamentally bearish with the IEA projecting a supply surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day. However, OPEC+ is maintaining production quotas and US-Iran tensions are keeping a “war premium” in the price. Near-term range expected between $62 and $72.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (WTI USD/bbl) | 70.53 | 66.88 | 62.68 | 58.75 |
Natural Gas Weekly Outlook NATGAS / Henry Hub
Prices are easing from the January spike as production recovers and milder temperatures return
Natural gas markets are normalising after Henry Hub spot prices averaged $7.72/MMBtu in January due to Winter Storm Fern. While weather effects normalise, surging AI data centre electricity requirements are creating new long-term structural support.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (USD/MMBtu) | 3.81 | 3.23 | 2.91 | 2.59 |
📊 Overall Commodity Market View — Week of 21 February 2026
Commodity markets are macro-driven this week, with inflation trends and global geopolitical risk acting as the dominant forces. Precious metals benefit from lower real yields and dollar weakness, while energy remains caught in a binary struggle between supply surpluses and conflict risks.
🗓 Key Economic Events This Week
| Event | Day | Commodity Impact |
|---|---|---|
| President Trump Speaks | Wednesday | High — Oil, Gold |
| German GDP (Q4) | Wednesday | High — Industrial Demand |
| EIA Natural Gas Storage | Thursday | High — Natural Gas Catalyst |
| US PPI (MoM) | Friday | High — Gold, Yields |
