Crude Oil Market Outlook February 24 2026 | WTI Technical Analysis & Trade Setup
Section 1 — Live Snapshot
24-Hour Market Snapshot
WTI Spot
$65.63
−1.03%
Brent Crude
$70.77
−1.01%
WTI 6M High
$66.88
Feb 20, 2026
API Crude Build
+11.4M
Bearish
Geo Risk Premium
$3–$4
Priced In
Iran Talks
Thu Geneva
Round 3
OPEC+ Meeting
Mar 1
Output Decision
EIA Forecast 2026
$58/bbl
Avg Brent
Section 2 — Fundamental Analysis
Top Fundamental Drivers — Next 24 Hours
Crude oil is caught in a binary fundamental setup. Two opposing forces are fighting for control: massive inventory builds reflecting soft demand, and a geopolitical risk premium centered on the US-Iran deadline.
| Driver | Direction | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Geneva Talks | Bearish | Round 3 begins Thursday. A framework deal could unwind $3–$10/bbl risk premium instantly. Breakdown spikes price toward $70+. |
| EIA Inventory (+16M bbl) | Bearish | Largest weekly build in 3 years. Signals genuine supply surplus building in the US. |
| Trump Ultimatum | Bullish | 15-day deadline expires early March. Threat of military action keeps a floor under prices. |
| OPEC+ Output Hike | Bearish | Likely +137k bpd increase for April. Market is pre-pricing this bearish supply addition. |
Section 3 — Technical Analysis
WTI Crude Oil Technical Summary
WTI broke above the key $65.45 range resistance on Feb 20. Tuesday’s pullback represents a classic “throwback” or retest move. The structure remains constructive while above $65.45.
WTI Crude Oil (CL1!) — Daily Chart
Interactive Technical AnalysisRSI (14)
55.01
Neutral-to-Bullish
MACD
Positive
Trend Intact
100/200 SMA
Golden X
Bullish Path
📈 Resistance
R1 — Key$66.50
R2 — Target$67.20
📉 Support
S1 — Retest$65.45
S2 — Major$64.03
Section 4 — Actionable Trade Setup
Professional Trade Setup
Primary Bias: Bullish Continuation
LONGEntry Zone
$65.45 – $65.70
Stop Loss
$64.85
Take Profit
$67.00 – $69.00
Rationale: Buying the retest of the broken $65.45 resistance. If the breakout holds through the Iran talks, the measured move target is $69.00. Reduce size due to high volatility.
Analyst Conclusion
Crude oil is a tale of two fundamentals. The supply picture (EIA builds, OPEC+ hikes) is bearish, but the geopolitical risk premium from Trump’s Iran ultimatum keeps a firm floor. Traders should remain nimble; a diplomatic breakthrough is structurally bearish, while military escalation is violently bullish.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading crude oil futures involves substantial risk. All data sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, and EIA as of Feb 2026. This is not financial advice.
