Crypto Weekly Report
Crypto Weekly Outlook
Bitcoin · Ethereum · XRP · Dogecoin
⚖️ Regulatory Landscape — Week of 21 Feb 2026
The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) is advancing through the US Senate, with final implementing regulations expected by mid-2026. The framework will determine which digital assets are classified as securities vs. commodities — a binary risk event that could reshape institutional participation across the entire sector. Simultaneously, the SEC has over 125 spot altcoin ETF filings pending approval, including products tracking XRP and Solana. The post-SCOTUS IEEPA tariff ruling is also weakening the US Dollar — a direct structural tailwind for all Dollar-denominated risk assets including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Weekly Outlook BTC / USD
Macro signals are continuing to set near-term direction as Bitcoin consolidates below its all-time high, with structural institutional demand underpinning the longer-term bull case
Bitcoin is continuing to trade as a macro-sensitive asset in the week of 21 February, with price action being shaped by the interplay between risk appetite, US Treasury yield movements, and evolving Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Having surged to an all-time high above $120,000 in late 2025 — driven by the wave of institutional adoption catalysed by spot Bitcoin ETFs and the post-halving supply shock — BTC is now undergoing a healthy corrective consolidation phase consistent with prior cycle patterns. Current prices around $72,000 represent a significant retracement from the peak, but the macro environment remains broadly supportive of longer-term recovery.
The structural investment case for Bitcoin is continuing to strengthen on multiple fronts. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are maintaining persistent inflows, with Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity vehicles collectively absorbing supply at rates far exceeding new mining issuance. The US Dollar is remaining structurally weak — down over 13% year-on-year — following the SCOTUS ruling that invalidated executive IEEPA tariff authorities, a dynamic that is directly benefiting Dollar-denominated store-of-value assets. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds — including Mubadala of Abu Dhabi — are actively incorporating Bitcoin into reserve and portfolio allocation conversations for the first time at scale.
Near-term, the market is remaining in a reactive posture. Pullbacks are continuing to attract buyers — suggesting underlying structural demand is intact — but upside momentum is being capped by macro uncertainty around the pace of Fed easing and ongoing equity market volatility. Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq is remaining elevated, making technology sector performance a de facto secondary indicator for crypto traders this week. The week’s primary catalysts are US CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), President Trump speaking (Wednesday — Iran policy/tariff signals), and US PPI (Friday) as the dominant inflation read affecting real yield expectations and Bitcoin’s premium over risk-free assets.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (BTC/USD) | $84,328 | $70,335 | $65,034 | $59,886 |
Ethereum Weekly Outlook ETH / USD
Network fundamentals remain robust but the deteriorating ETH/BTC ratio and DeFi security concerns are weighing on relative performance
Ethereum is demonstrating relative resilience within the broader digital asset complex, with the network’s underlying activity metrics — DeFi total value locked, stablecoin settlement volumes, and Layer 2 transaction throughput — remaining healthy. However, price action is continuing to reflect a cautious market posture: ETH is trading near $2,270, and the ETH/BTC ratio is deteriorating, signalling active rotation away from Ethereum and toward Bitcoin during this period of macro uncertainty — a pattern consistent with risk-off episodes in prior cycles.
The primary headwinds for Ethereum in the near term are a combination of macro sensitivity and sector-specific risk factors. DeFi security incidents — most recently the Bybit exchange incident which created significant negative sentiment across the broader crypto ecosystem — are disproportionately weighing on Ethereum given its central role in decentralised finance infrastructure. Periods of Dollar strength or elevated real yields are amplifying downward pressure on ETH’s upside attempts, while the narrative gap between Ethereum’s complex utility story and Bitcoin’s simple store-of-value pitch is making ETH a harder institutional sell during uncertain macro windows.
The constructive case for Ethereum is building for a medium-term recovery. Spot ETH ETFs are maintaining institutional inflows. The CLARITY Act’s classification framework — once enacted — is likely to confirm ETH’s commodity status, removing a significant regulatory overhang. Ethereum’s shift toward Layer 1 scalability after successfully executing its Layer 2 strategy is creating a more defensible competitive moat against Solana and other smart contract competitors. The key near-term technical test is whether ETH can hold the psychological $2,000 support zone during Bitcoin pullbacks and mount a recovery above the $2,400 threshold to shift sentiment constructive.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (ETH/USD) | $2,756 | $2,099 | $1,897 | $1,724 |
XRP (Ripple) Weekly Outlook XRP / USD
Sentiment-driven price swings dominate near-term action as the regulatory framework clears and spot XRP ETF approval anticipation builds
XRP is continuing to experience sentiment-driven price action in February 2026, with volatility being amplified by shifts in broader cryptocurrency market momentum and macro risk appetite. The underlying regulatory narrative for Ripple has improved dramatically: the resolution of the multi-year Ripple vs. SEC litigation combined with the advancing CLARITY Act framework is removing the primary structural overhang that suppressed XRP’s institutional participation for years. However, near-term price action is remaining tightly coupled to broad crypto sentiment rather than XRP-specific fundamentals.
A spot XRP ETF application is among the over 125 digital asset ETF filings currently pending SEC review — an approval would represent a transformative catalyst that could attract institutional capital on a scale comparable to the impact of the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in 2024. Ripple’s cross-border payment use case is continuing to expand, with financial institutions in Asia and the Middle East actively piloting XRP-based settlement infrastructure. In the short term, however, without a sustained improvement in crypto-wide sentiment, upside attempts in XRP are likely to struggle for traction. Traders are continuing to favour range-based strategies, with the $1.34–$1.60 zone functioning as the near-term trading band.
XRP is exhibiting its characteristic higher-beta profile: in risk-on environments it tends to outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum materially, but in risk-off episodes it also draws down more sharply. This asymmetry is making position sizing and risk management critical for XRP traders this week. The Wednesday Trump speech carries particular binary risk, as any comments touching cryptocurrency regulation or tariff policy could trigger sharp momentum moves in XRP given its regulatory sensitivity.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (XRP/USD) | $1.76 | $1.51 | $1.34 | $1.20 |
Dogecoin Weekly Outlook DOGE / USD
Speculative interest remains elevated with sharp intraday swings driven by retail sentiment, social media momentum, and high-profile public commentary
Dogecoin is remaining highly sensitive to speculative flows and rapid shifts in retail sentiment, with price action continuing to display sharp intraday swings that are frequently disconnected from broader macroeconomic fundamentals. DOGE is trading near the $0.095 level — sitting at the lower end of its recent range — as the post-ATH crypto market consolidation is weighing on purely speculative tokens more heavily than fundamentally-anchored assets like Bitcoin. Retail participation, which surged dramatically in 2024–2025 as the asset became associated with broader cultural and political momentum, is moderating but remains structurally elevated versus prior cycle baselines.
The emergence of a spot Dogecoin ETF filing — alongside over 125 other digital asset ETF applications pending before the SEC — is introducing a new and potentially material institutional narrative to what has historically been a purely retail-driven asset. If the CLARITY Act’s regulatory framework incentivises the SEC to approve a broader set of crypto ETFs in 2026, Dogecoin could benefit from institutional attention and capital flows that were previously inaccessible. However, this is a medium-term catalyst. In the near term, DOGE price action is remaining hostage to social media momentum, high-profile public commentary, and Bitcoin’s near-term directional trend, with any BTC pullback likely to exert disproportionate downside pressure on DOGE.
While rapid momentum bursts can generate material near-term upside in DOGE, sustainability is remaining limited without sustained broader market support. Volatility is expected to remain elevated through the week, with sentiment and social-flow signals acting as primary drivers. Traders are continuing to favour shorter holding periods and tighter risk management frameworks when approaching speculative positions in Dogecoin. The $0.095 support zone is critical — a decisive break below this level risks triggering a cascade toward $0.080.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price (DOGE/USD) | $0.134 | $0.110 | $0.095 | $0.080 |
📊 Overall Crypto Market View — Week of 21 February 2026
Cryptocurrency markets are remaining macro-driven this week, with Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, US Dollar trend, global risk appetite, and regulatory development velocity acting as the dominant forces. Bitcoin is continuing to absorb post-ATH profit-taking in a structurally supported consolidation — the institutional architecture of spot ETFs, sovereign reserve conversations, and the approaching mining supply milestone is providing a durable demand floor that distinguishes this cycle’s pullback behaviour from prior bear markets.
Ethereum is facing a more complex near-term picture: its fundamental platform position has never been stronger, yet the price is underperforming versus Bitcoin as institutional capital gravitates toward simpler, clearer asset stories during periods of macro uncertainty. The ETH/BTC ratio is the key relative performance signal to monitor. XRP is trading with its characteristic sentiment beta, while remaining positioned for a significant upside re-rating if spot ETF approvals materialise under the CLARITY Act framework. Dogecoin continues to offer asymmetric speculative exposure but demands disciplined risk management given its disconnection from fundamental valuations.
In the absence of a decisive macro or regulatory shift, cryptocurrencies are likely to trade within defined technical ranges through the week, with volatility spikes concentrated around US PPI (Friday), President Trump speaking (Wednesday), and any unexpected SCOTUS, SEC, or geopolitical developments that alter either Dollar direction or risk sentiment materially.
🗓 Key Economic Events This Week — Crypto Market Impact
| Currency | Event | Day | Crypto Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| NZD | Retail Sales (QoQ) — Q4 | Monday | Risk sentiment barometer — minor |
| USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) | Tuesday | High — Broad risk appetite signal → BTC, ETH |
| AUD | CPI (QoQ & YoY) — January | Wednesday | Medium — Global inflation narrative |
| USD | President Trump Speaks | Wednesday | High — Crypto/tariff headlines → All assets |
| EUR | German GDP (QoQ) — Q4 | Wednesday | Medium — Global growth outlook → Risk sentiment |
| EUR | Eurozone CPI (YoY) — January | Wednesday | Medium — ECB policy → EUR/USD → Risk assets |
| USD | Initial Jobless Claims | Thursday | Medium — Fed expectations → Real yields → BTC |
| CHF | Swiss GDP (QoQ) — Q4 | Friday | Low — Peripheral risk appetite signal |
| EUR | German CPI (MoM) — February | Friday | Medium — European inflation narrative |
| USD | PPI (MoM) — January | Friday | High — KEY: Inflation → Real yields → BTC safe haven |
