Market Overview: Precious metals and energy markets are entering Tuesday’s session with cautious resilience as investors are weighing Federal Reserve rate expectations, renewed trade tensions following fresh tariff signals from the Trump administration, and escalating geopolitical risks centred on the imminent US–Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Gold is holding above the critical $5,150 mark with selling momentum appearing limited despite intraday Dollar strength. Silver is easing slightly after four consecutive sessions of gains but is continuing to hold above $88.00 with a structurally bullish technical picture. WTI Crude Oil is extending its rally for a second straight session near six-month highs around $66.80–$67.00, supported by Middle East supply-disruption risk. Natural Gas is stabilising near $2.99, defending key support at $2.95 after its dramatic January spike driven by Winter Storm Fern.
🥇 Gold XAU/USD
5,150+
▲ Bullish · Buy
🪙 Silver XAG/USD
88.20
▲ Bullish · Buy
🛢 WTI Crude Oil
66.80
▲ Bullish · Buy
🔥 Natural Gas
2.99
▼ Bearish · Sell
🏅 Commodity Markets in Focus Today
🏦 FOMC Minutes — Hawkish Tone
💵 USD Demand Renewed
🏛 Further Easing May Not Be Appropriate
🇺🇸 Fresh Trump Tariff Uncertainty
🌍 Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand
🏦 Central Bank Structural Buying
Gold (XAU/USD) is remaining under slight intraday pressure after retreating from the monthly high set earlier on Tuesday, yet it is continuing to trade above the $5,150 mark during the early European session, with selling momentum appearing limited. After Monday’s sharp drop triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of fresh global tariffs — and the subsequent recovery — the US Dollar has drawn renewed demand, supported by the Federal Reserve’s relatively hawkish tone, which is weighing on the precious metal.
Minutes from the January FOMC meeting are revealing that several Fed officials believe further policy easing may not be appropriate until there is clear evidence that disinflation is firmly back on track. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that he would consider keeping interest rates unchanged at the March meeting if February’s employment data suggests the US labour market has shifted to a more stable footing following a weak 2025. Despite these short-term headwinds, the structural bullish case for gold — underpinned by persistent central bank buying, declining real yields, and elevated geopolitical risk — remains firmly intact, with dip-buyers continuing to emerge at technical support levels.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 105,064.69 · Bullish ▲
EMA 204,990.26 · Bullish ▲
EMA 504,757.43 · Bullish ▲
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 105,043.30 · Bullish ▲
SMA 205,033.79 · Bullish ▲
SMA 504,721.43 · Bullish ▲
RSI (14-Day)
58.75
Buy Zone · Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator
94.79
Buy Zone · Neutral — Overbought Watch
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 5,731.18 | 5,426.94 | ~5,150 | 4,442.03 | 4,137.79 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionLIMIT BUY
Entry Price5,097.00
Take Profit5,336.00
Stop Loss4,989.00
Bullish — BuyAll six moving averages are in positive crossover territory and the RSI is at 58.75 in the buy zone. The Stochastic at 94.79 warrants caution against chasing at current levels — the limit buy at 5,097 targets an optimal pullback entry. Dips toward S1 at 4,442 remain attractive buying opportunities for medium-term positions.
📈 4 Consecutive Gain Sessions
🏭 Precious Metal & Industrial Dual Demand
⚡ 5th Year Structural Supply Deficit (~10%)
☀️ Solar PV & AI Hardware Demand
🎯 Record High $121.66 (Jan 29) In Sight
📉 RSI Above Neutral 50 — Bullish
Silver (XAG/USD) is easing after posting gains for four consecutive sessions, trading near $88.20 per troy ounce in early European dealings on Tuesday. On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is standing at 54, remaining above the neutral 50 level and signalling mild bullish momentum. The metal is continuing to trade above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the near-term trend constructive. As long as prices are holding above the rising 50-day EMA, any corrective dips may find support around the nine-day EMA within the broader recovery phase.
Both moving averages are maintaining an upward slope, with the shorter-term EMA positioned above the longer-term one — reinforcing positive momentum across timeframes. This technical setup is allowing XAG/USD to potentially retest the record high of $121.66 reached on January 29. On the downside, immediate support is located at the nine-day EMA near $83.03, followed by the 50-day EMA around $80.15. A decisive break below these levels would weaken the bullish structure and potentially expose the February 6 two-month low near $64.08. Silver’s structural supply deficit — now in its fifth consecutive year with approximately 10% undersupply — and surging industrial demand from photovoltaic solar panels and AI-related electronics continue to provide a powerful long-term fundamental floor.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 1083.97 · Bullish ▲
EMA 2079.60 · Bullish ▲
EMA 5069.97 · Bullish ▲
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 1086.11 · Bullish ▲
SMA 2081.50 · Bullish ▲
SMA 5066.59 · Bullish ▲
RSI (14-Day)
53.97
Buy Zone · Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator
67.87
Buy Zone · Neutral
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 103.00 | 90.38 | ~88.20 | 83.70 | 76.21 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionLIMIT BUY
Entry Price91.13
Take Profit103.70
Stop Loss84.55
Bullish — BuyAll six MAs are in positive crossover territory. RSI at 53.97 confirms genuine bullish momentum above the neutral 50 line. The short-term EMA above long-term, both sloping upward, is a classically bullish MA configuration. The January 29 record high of $121.66 is the medium-term technical target. Key risk: a close below the 50-day EMA at $69.97 would shift the bias to neutral.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US–Iran Geneva Talks — Round 3
⚓ Strait of Hormuz Supply Risk
📜 SCOTUS Struck Down Earlier Tariffs
⚔️ New National Security Tariffs Signalled
🛢 6-Month High: $67.23 (Feb 23)
💣 Trump: Serious Consequences for Iran
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is extending its rally for a second straight session, trading near $66.80 per barrel during Tuesday’s European hours. Prices are remaining close to the six-month peak of $67.23 recorded on February 23. Oil markets are gaining on rising concerns over potential supply disruptions amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Oman has confirmed that a third round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran will be held this week in Geneva, where US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet with an Iranian delegation.
US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he favours a diplomatic resolution with Iran ahead of Thursday’s talks but cautioned that Tehran could face serious consequences if a nuclear agreement is not reached. He also dismissed reports suggesting the Pentagon is apprehensive about the risks of a prolonged military conflict. At the same time, market participants are assessing renewed trade uncertainties after the Trump administration signalled plans for fresh national security tariffs across several sectors following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down a number of earlier trade measures. This combination of Iran supply risk and new tariff uncertainty is keeping a significant geopolitical war premium embedded in oil prices, even as the broader IEA supply surplus projection for 2026 would otherwise suggest structurally lower prices.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 1065.16 · Bullish ▲
EMA 2064.11 · Bullish ▲
EMA 5062.19 · Bullish ▲
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 1064.74 · Bullish ▲
SMA 2064.40 · Bullish ▲
SMA 5060.90 · Bullish ▲
RSI (14-Day)
61.53
Buy Zone · Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator
84.86
Buy Zone · Neutral — Momentum Watch
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 69.27 | 66.74 | ~66.80 | 58.56 | 56.03 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionLIMIT BUY
Entry Price65.17
Take Profit67.77
Stop Loss63.76
Bullish — BuyAll six MAs are in positive crossover — the strongest bullish MA configuration of any commodity covered today. RSI at 61.53 is in the buy zone with room before overbought. The Iran nuclear talks in Geneva are the primary binary event risk: a diplomatic breakthrough could rapidly reverse gains toward S1 at $58.56, while a breakdown could accelerate a push toward $70+.
📉 All 6 MAs in Negative Crossover
🔄 Post-Winter Storm Fern Normalisation
📊 Ample Global Inventories Long-Term
🏭 Trade Policy Supply Chain Uncertainty
⚡ Short-Term Volatility Elevated
🤖 AI Data Centre — Emerging Structural Support
Natural gas prices are facing continued pressure as traders are contending with rapidly changing market dynamics and fresh trade policies that could disrupt supply chains and alter demand expectations. The combination of these evolving factors is contributing to heightened price volatility. While the broader outlook is pointing to ample global inventories over the longer term, ongoing short-term uncertainty is lending underlying support and helping prices remain relatively resilient at the key $2.95 support zone.
Natural gas has pulled back significantly from the January 2026 spike driven by Winter Storm Fern, which pushed Henry Hub to an average of $7.72/MMBtu — up 81% month-on-month from December. As temperatures are normalising and US dry natural gas production is recovering from the weather-related disruption, prices are reverting toward longer-term fundamental levels. The broader bearish pressure is amplified by a bear signal across all six moving averages and a very low Stochastic reading of 2.87 — suggesting the market is approaching short-term oversold territory where a tactical bounce toward resistance cannot be ruled out. AI data centre electricity demand is providing emerging medium-term structural support, but this is not yet sufficient to offset the near-term bearish technical picture.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 103.4465 · Bearish ▼
EMA 203.7331 · Bearish ▼
EMA 503.9384 · Bearish ▼
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 103.4180 · Bearish ▼
SMA 204.0008 · Bearish ▼
SMA 503.9801 · Bearish ▼
RSI (14-Day)
35.33
Neutral Zone · Approaching Oversold
Stochastic Oscillator
2.87
Neutral Zone · Near Oversold — Bounce Watch
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 6.8424 | 6.1462 | ~2.99 | 3.8924 | 3.1962 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionLIMIT SELL
Entry Price3.10
Take Profit2.74
Stop Loss3.45
Bearish — SellAll six MAs are in negative crossover confirming the structural bearish stance. RSI at 35.33 and Stochastic at 2.87 indicate the market is approaching short-term oversold — avoid aggressively chasing the sell. The trade structure (limit sell at 3.10) targets a relief bounce to that level as the optimal entry before the next leg lower toward the 2.74 Take Profit.
📊 Elsewhere in Commodity Markets
Gold (XAU)
▼ −0.97% · 5,176.53
Silver (XAG)
▲ +0.06% · 88.21
Palladium
▲ +0.71% · 1,637.76
Platinum
▲ +0.85% · 2,014.75
Brent Crude
▲ +0.21% · 71.26
WTI Crude
▲ +0.27% · 66.44
📅 Key Economic Event Today
🇺🇸 USD — CB Consumer Confidence (February) · 20:30 GMT
The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey for February is the primary scheduled market-moving event for commodity markets today. A reading above the 87.4 forecast would signal resilient US consumer sentiment, supporting the US Dollar and creating short-term headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities including gold and silver. A miss below the previous 84.5 reading would reinforce Federal Reserve rate cut expectations — bullish for precious metals and supportive of broader risk appetite that tends to benefit commodity prices.
📋 Commodity Market Conclusion — 25 February 2026
Today’s commodity session is characterised by a clear bullish/bearish split: three of the four instruments are carrying bullish technical and fundamental profiles, while Natural Gas stands alone as the bearish outlier. The common thread across all four markets is heightened sensitivity to US trade policy developments and the outcome of this week’s US–Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva.
Gold is the most technically robust instrument today, with all six MAs in positive crossover and RSI at 58.75 in the buy zone. The high Stochastic reading of 94.79 suggests waiting for a pullback — the limit buy at 5,097 offers a more optimal entry than current market levels. The structural case driven by central bank buying, declining real yields, and geopolitical risk remains unchanged and compelling.
Silver shares the same structural MA picture as gold but with a more measured RSI of 53.97 — arguably a healthier entry setup after easing from four consecutive gain sessions. The January 29 record high of $121.66 and the structural 5-year supply deficit are strong medium-term anchors for the bullish thesis. This week’s US Consumer Confidence and Friday’s PPI are the key near-term macro catalysts.
WTI Crude Oil is the most geopolitically sensitive instrument this week, near six-month highs with all six MAs bullish. The Geneva Iran talks represent a genuine binary risk that could move prices sharply in either direction. Traders holding WTI long positions should be aware of this event-driven volatility risk and size accordingly.
Natural Gas is the sole bearish instrument today, with all six MAs confirming the structural downtrend. However, the Stochastic at 2.87 and RSI near 35 are warning of a potentially overextended move — a tactical bounce toward the $3.10 limit sell entry level is the expected path before any renewed downside toward the $2.74 target.
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions — Daily Commodity Analysis
Why is Gold holding above $5,150 despite US Dollar strength today?
Gold is remaining resilient above $5,150 because structural bullish drivers — declining real yields, persistent central bank buying, and geopolitical uncertainty — are outweighing near-term headwinds from a firmer US Dollar. January FOMC minutes revealed that several Fed officials do not view further policy easing as appropriate yet, adding intraday pressure. However, all six moving averages remain in positive crossover territory, the RSI is at 58.75 in the buy zone, and dip-buyers are continuing to emerge at technical support levels, confirming the underlying bullish structure is intact.
Is Silver a buy or sell based on today’s technical analysis?
Silver (XAG/USD) is carrying a bullish overall bias with a Buy direction. The 14-day RSI stands at 53.97, above the neutral 50 level, confirming genuine bullish momentum. All six moving averages — EMA 10, 20, 50 and SMA 10, 20, 50 — are in positive crossover territory. The shorter-term EMA is positioned above the longer-term, both sloping upward, reinforcing positive momentum. The current trade suggestion is a Limit Buy at $91.13 with Take Profit at $103.70 and Stop Loss at $84.55. The January 29 record high of $121.66 is the medium-term technical target.
What is driving WTI Crude Oil near six-month highs today?
WTI Crude Oil is near six-month highs around $66.80 per barrel, driven primarily by escalating Middle East supply disruption concerns. Oman has confirmed a third round of US–Iran nuclear negotiations this week in Geneva, where US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are meeting an Iranian delegation. President Trump has signalled a preference for diplomacy while warning of serious consequences if talks fail — keeping a significant geopolitical risk premium in prices. All six moving averages are in positive crossover and RSI is at 61.53 in the buy zone.
What is the Natural Gas technical outlook and trade setup today?
Natural Gas carries a Bearish overall sentiment with a Sell direction. All six moving averages — EMA 10, 20, 50 and SMA 10, 20, 50 — are in negative crossover territory. The RSI is at 35.33, approaching oversold, and the Stochastic Oscillator is at just 2.87, near oversold conditions. Prices are stabilising near $2.99, defending $2.95 support. The trade suggestion is a Limit Sell at $3.10 with Take Profit of $2.74 and Stop Loss at $3.45. Markets are normalising following the January Winter Storm Fern spike that took Henry Hub to $7.72/MMBtu.
What is the impact of the US–Iran Geneva negotiations on crude oil?
The US–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva are the single most important binary risk for crude oil this week. A diplomatic breakthrough could remove the geopolitical risk premium and drag WTI back toward the $62–$65 range. Conversely, a breakdown in talks — or any escalatory signal — could push Brent well above $70/bbl, particularly given the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption risk. Trump’s statement that Tehran could face “serious consequences” if no deal is reached is keeping an elevated war premium in current prices.
What economic events are affecting commodity markets today?
The primary scheduled event today is the US CB Consumer Confidence (February) at 20:30 GMT, with a forecast of 87.4 versus the previous 84.5. A beat would support the USD and pressure gold and silver short-term. A miss would reinforce rate cut expectations and boost precious metals. The US–Iran Geneva talks and Friday’s US PPI are the other key event risks for commodity markets this week.
What are the key support and resistance levels for Gold (XAU/USD) today?
Gold’s key technical levels today are: Resistance R1 at 5,426.94 and R2 at 5,731.18. Support S1 at 4,442.03 and S2 at 4,137.79. The current price is near $5,150 — above all six moving averages. The trade suggestion is a Limit Buy at 5,097.00 with Take Profit 5,336.00 and Stop Loss 4,989.00. The Stochastic at 94.79 warrants caution against chasing at current levels — patience on entry is advised.
Why is Silver more volatile than Gold right now?
Silver occupies a unique dual position as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. On the precious metal side it benefits from the same safe-haven and rate-cut tailwinds as gold. On the industrial side it is exposed to global manufacturing cycles and growth expectations. Silver is also in its fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficit with approximately 10% undersupply, and is benefiting from surging demand in photovoltaic solar panels and AI-related electronics. This combination of structural deficit, dual market identity, and proximity to its January 29 record high of $121.66 is amplifying Silver’s volatility relative to gold.
Risk Disclaimer: This daily commodity analysis is produced by Capital Street FX for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to trade any financial instrument. Commodity and CFD trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Leverage can magnify both profits and losses — you could lose more than your initial deposit. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All analysis, indicators, price levels, and trade suggestions are illustrative only and not personalised investment recommendations. Data correct as of 25 February 2026. Capital Street FX is regulated by FSC Mauritius (C112010690) and FSA Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (22064-IBC-2014).
