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Daily Crypto Analysis

February 20, 2026
CSFXadmin
Daily Crypto Analysis | Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin | Capital Street FX
Capital Street FX
Daily Crypto Analysis
Crypto Market Analysis

Bitcoin Is Testing Critical Support as Geopolitical Risks Mount

BTC is heading for its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin are all trading under bearish pressure as US–Iran tensions and Fed hawkishness are tightening financial conditions.

20 February 2026 BTC Analysis ETH Outlook XRP Setup DOGE Technical
BTC ▲ 1.78% $68,164
ETH ▲ 1.01% $1,967.65
SOL ▲ 2.33% $84.38
XRP Neutral ~$1.42
DOGE ▲ 0.72% $0.09
LTC ▲ 3.2% $54.18

Crypto Markets Are Consolidating Under Bearish Pressure

Major cryptocurrencies are trading in consolidation mode this Friday as a convergence of bearish macro forces is keeping traders cautious and risk appetite suppressed. Bitcoin is stabilising after defending key support, while Ethereum and XRP are hovering near critical technical levels. Dogecoin is remaining under pressure, with bearish momentum continuing to cap recovery attempts across the broader crypto market.

The macro backdrop is weighing heavily. Bitcoin is on course to record its fifth consecutive weekly decline — a streak last seen during the March to May 2022 bear market. The drivers are well-defined: an escalating US–Iran geopolitical standoff, a stronger US Dollar approaching 97.84 on the Dollar Index, hawkish Federal Reserve signals emanating from Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, and institutional ETF outflows that are indicating a selective risk reduction among even the largest market participants.

⚠ Macro Alert: US-Iran Tensions & Hawkish Fed Are Driving Risk-Off

US-Iran tensions are intensifying, with Iran reportedly disrupting activity near the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 31% of the world’s seaborne crude oil is transiting. This is lifting energy prices, strengthening the US Dollar, and triggering a flight to safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index is rising toward 97.84, a historically inverse signal for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, FOMC minutes are signalling a potential rate hike rather than the two cuts markets had priced in — further reducing appetite for non-yielding risk assets like crypto.

Institutional Signal to Watch

BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF is recording net outflows on February 17, suggesting that even institutional players are currently reducing rather than adding crypto exposure. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq and tech stocks is remaining elevated, making the asset increasingly sensitive to any deterioration in broad risk sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Testing the lower boundary of a 13-day consolidation range — $65,729 is the line in the sand
Bitcoin Analysis Chart

Bitcoin is bouncing after revisiting the lower boundary of its 13-day consolidation range. The price is moving sideways within a defined channel between $65,729 and $71,746 since February 7. BTC is beginning the current week on a weaker footing, slipping during the first half before staging a modest rebound on Thursday after testing the lower boundary.

As of Friday, Bitcoin is trading near $67,200, with the intraday bounce providing temporary relief. However, the broader trend remains under pressure. All exponential moving averages — the 10-, 20-, and 50-day — are recording negative crossovers, collectively confirming bearish momentum across multiple timeframes.

A daily close below $65,729 would be a technically significant bearish signal, opening the door to a deeper pullback toward the major psychological support at $60,000. Conversely, if buyers continue to defend the lower boundary with conviction, BTC may mount another attempt toward the upper range near $71,746.

Resistance 1
$92,551
Resistance 2
$97,796
Support 1
$75,574
Support 2
$70,330

Technical Indicators — BTC/USD

EMA 10$68,393
EMA 20$71,284
EMA 50$78,682
SMA 10$67,854 Bullish
SMA 20$69,732 Bearish
SMA 50$82,224 Bearish
RSI (14)37.86 — Sell Zone
Stochastic49.51 — Neutral

Trade Suggestion — BTC/USD

LIMIT SELL
Entry
$69,605
Take Profit
$65,015
Stop Loss
$72,257
Ξ

Ethereum (ETH/USD)

Approaching the lower range boundary at $1,747 — a close below could accelerate losses
Ethereum Analysis Chart

Ethereum is facing rejection near the upper boundary of its consolidation range at $2,149, falling 5.75% in a single session on Sunday. The asset is continuing to edge lower through the week and is now, as of Friday, approaching the lower end of its range. A daily close below the $1,747 support zone could accelerate losses toward the next key level at $1,669.

Momentum signals are presenting a mixed picture. The RSI is sitting at 34.47, which is building bearish pressure and approaching oversold territory. However, the MACD’s bullish crossover from Saturday is remaining intact, indicating that the broader underlying structure has not yet been fully negated.

Ethereum Watch

All six moving averages are registering negative crossovers, painting a uniformly bearish technical picture for ETH. The $1,747 level is the critical near-term decision point.

Resistance 1
$3,137
Resistance 2
$3,408
Support 1
$2,259
Support 2
$1,987

Technical Indicators — ETH/USD

EMA 10$2,005.89
EMA 20$2,138.92
EMA 50$2,490.42
SMA 10$1,985.37
RSI (14)34.47
Stochastic41.85

Trade Suggestion — ETH/USD

LIMIT SELL
Entry
$2,021.70
Take Profit
$1,893.60
Stop Loss
$2,095.20

XRP / Ripple (XRP/USD)

Finding support at a falling wedge trendline near $1.42 — a key technical decision point
XRP Analysis Chart

XRP is moving above the lower trendline of a falling wedge on Saturday before edging lower the following session, where it is finding support near that same level. The token is stabilising around the trendline through the week and is trading near $1.42 as of Friday.

A sustained move lower, confirmed by a daily close below the trendline, could see XRP extend losses toward the weekly support around $1.30. On the upside, if the falling wedge trendline continues to hold, XRP could attempt a recovery toward the 50-day EMA near $1.68.

Resistance 1
$2.2032
Resistance 2
$2.4187
Support 1
$1.5057
Support 2
$1.2902

Technical Indicators — XRP/USD

EMA 10$1.4440
EMA 50$1.6884
RSI (14)40.05
Stochastic44.00
PatternFalling Wedge

Trade Suggestion — XRP/USD

LIMIT SELL
Entry
$1.460
Take Profit
$1.370
Stop Loss
$1.520
Ð

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)

Rebound losing steam below the descending trendline — bearish structure is reasserting
Dogecoin Analysis Chart

Dogecoin is resuming its decline after slipping below the $0.1050 area. The sell-off is pushing prices beneath the psychological $0.10 mark, with a low forming around $0.0955.

Immediate support is sitting near $0.0955, followed by the next key support around $0.0920. On the upside, a sustained move above the $0.1040 resistance could open the door for a rebound toward $0.1065.

Resistance 1
$0.1420
Resistance 2
$0.1566
Support 1
$0.0950
Support 2
$0.0804

Technical Indicators — DOGE/USD

EMA 20$0.1026
EMA 50$0.1146
RSI (14)43.08
Key Level$0.10 Psych

Trade Suggestion — DOGE/USD

LIMIT SELL
Entry
$0.1060
Take Profit
$0.0900
Stop Loss
$0.1150

Live Crypto Market Snapshot

BITCOIN
$68,164
▲ +1.78%
ETHEREUM
$1,967
▲ +1.01%
LITECOIN
$54.18
▲ +3.20%
SOLANA
$84.38
▲ +2.33%
DOGECOIN
$0.09
▲ +0.72%

Key Economic Events Impacting Crypto Today

ReleaseForecastPreviousImpact on Crypto
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)0.3%0.2%HIGH — hawkish print = BTC downside
US GDP (QoQ) Final Q42.8%4.4%MEDIUM — weak print may lift risk appetite
Weekly Jobless Claims~225KMEDIUM — higher claims = looser Fed = BTC bullish
US–Iran Geopolitical DevelopmentOngoingHIGH — escalation triggers risk-off
DXY Dollar Index Movement~97.8497.70HIGH — stronger dollar = BTC bearish

Crypto Market FAQs

Why is Bitcoin falling in February 2026?
Bitcoin is heading for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, driven by US-Iran geopolitical tensions, hawkish FOMC minutes, and institutional ETF outflows.
What is the critical support level for Bitcoin right now?
Bitcoin’s most significant near-term support is the $65,729 level. A close below this would open the path toward $60,000.
Risk Disclosure: Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Capital Street FX is not responsible for any losses arising from decisions based on this content.

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