Macro Context: Why Labour Markets Are Moving Crypto

Cryptocurrency markets are absorbing a critical macro signal this session. January’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report has come in ahead of expectations, with the unemployment rate holding near multi-month lows and wage growth remaining firm. This combination is delivering a clear message to rate markets: the Federal Reserve has no immediate urgency to cut interest rates. Traders are now pushing back the earliest plausible cut timeline beyond June, with some models suggesting the first cut may not arrive until late 2026 or 2027.

For risk assets — and particularly high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies — this is a headwind of considerable structural weight. A higher-for-longer rate environment elevates the risk-free return available in short-dated U.S. Treasuries, reducing the relative appeal of non-yielding speculative assets. The dollar is maintaining strength, liquidity conditions remain tight, and institutional capital flows are continuing to favor traditional safe-haven assets and cash-equivalent instruments over digital assets.

The broader implications are clear: until inflation cools decisively or the labour market shows meaningful softening, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its pause. Crypto is trading as a leveraged bet on future liquidity conditions, and currently, those conditions are deteriorating on the margin.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Consolidating Below Key Resistance, Bears Maintain Control

BTC Bitcoin · ~$67,102

Bitcoin is holding near $67,000 during the European session, digesting the impact of the stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market print that has reduced the probability of near-term Federal Reserve easing. While the asset recovered from the sharp drop toward $60,000 earlier this month — demonstrating underlying buyer interest at lower levels — it is now encountering a wall of technical resistance between $70,000 and $73,000 that is proving difficult to breach without a macro catalyst.

Trading volumes are subdued, suggesting conviction is low on both sides. The market appears to be in a wait-and-see posture ahead of the U.S. CPI release, which is serving as the next major directional catalyst. Most altcoins are posting modest gains within narrow ranges — consistent with a risk-off consolidation phase rather than a genuine recovery.

All moving averages across both exponential and simple configurations are displaying negative crossovers with the current price trading well below the MA 10, MA 20, and MA 50 on both frameworks. The RSI at 32.17 is confirming oversold conditions, while the Stochastic Oscillator at 28.20 is echoing the sell signal. Oversold readings can persist for extended periods in macro-driven bear phases and should not be interpreted as standalone buy signals.

Moving Averages — Exponential & Simple

Oscillators

Support & Resistance Levels

Ethereum (ETH/USD): $2,000 Floor Broken — Extended Downside Risk Elevated

ETH Ethereum · ~$1,994

Ethereum is resuming its downward move after failing to sustain a recovery above the $2,050 level, mirroring Bitcoin’s macro-driven weakness. The breach of both $2,020 and $2,000 in sequence is a technically significant development — the $2,000 level was serving as the primary psychological anchor for short-term bulls, and its loss confirms a shift into bearish territory on an intraday basis.

Ethereum is currently trading below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, with immediate resistance at $2,000 — now acting as overhead supply — followed by $2,020 as the next meaningful ceiling. For bearish pressure to ease, a sustained close back above $2,000 is the minimum requirement; a return above $2,050 would be needed to confirm any short-term trend reversal. Absent that, the path of least resistance points lower. Initial support is visible near $1,920, with a decisive drop below $1,850 accelerating losses toward the $1,820 region. The derivatives market is not yet showing capitulation signals that would suggest an imminent wash-out low.

Cardano (ADA/USD): Derivatives Sentiment Improving — Recovery Possible but Not Confirmed

ADA Cardano · ~$0.257

Cardano is trading near $0.257, marking a decline of more than 4% for the week so far. However, an interesting divergence is emerging in the derivatives market: funding rates are flipping positive and long position accumulation among futures traders is picking up — a contrarian signal that bearish momentum may be beginning to fade on a short-term basis. This derivatives-level improvement does not yet override the bearish trend on the spot chart, but it does represent a notable internal development worth monitoring.

On the daily chart, the 9-day SMA at $0.266 continues to trend lower and sits above the current price — confirming that the near-term trajectory remains negative. A descending trendline from the $0.427 high is acting as a persistent cap on any rally attempts. For the short-term recovery thesis to gain traction, ADA must first clear $0.266 (9-day SMA), then challenge the $0.301 resistance zone. A daily close above $0.301 would open the door to $0.325. Until these levels are cleared on a closing basis, the technical structure remains bearish.

XRP / Ripple (XRP/USD): Support Holding — But Upside Remains Capped

XRP Ripple · ~$1.38

XRP has retreated following its failure to sustain a break above the $1.50 level, a technically significant ceiling that has now defined the asset’s range top across multiple sessions. The subsequent slide through $1.45 and $1.42 has shifted the short-term bias negative, with XRP currently trading below $1.40 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average — confirming continued near-term weakness.

The path to recovery requires two sequential hurdles: first, a decisive move and close above the $1.4050–$1.4650 resistance band, which would ease short-term selling pressure and set up a retest of $1.50. Second, a sustained close above $1.50 would restore the bullish case and open targets toward $1.76 and beyond. Without clearing these levels, each relief rally is being treated as a selling opportunity by the market.

On the downside, a break and sustained close below $1.2920 would accelerate losses toward $1.25 and then $1.2320. A further breakdown below $1.2150 would represent a structurally negative development indicating a possible deeper correction phase. Funding rates and on-chain flow data should be monitored for early signs of reversal.

Elsewhere in Crypto Markets

The broader crypto complex is posting modest recoveries during the session, with most assets trading within narrow ranges — consistent with a stabilisation phase rather than a directional recovery. Solana (+3.35%) and Dogecoin (+3.34%) are leading gains, primarily driven by short-term relief buying after oversold conditions. Litecoin and Ethereum are also registering positive sessions though remaining well below key technical thresholds.

Key Economic Events & Data Releases Today

Today’s calendar is light but carries high directional significance for near-term crypto momentum. The U.K. GDP data will test the global growth narrative, while U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will either reinforce or soften the strong NFP signal that has driven today’s cautious tone. Watch for any upside surprise in claims — a weakening labour market would re-open the rate cut debate and provide relief for risk assets.