FX Market Overview: Major currency pairs are trading cautiously on Tuesday as tariff uncertainty and shifting rate expectations are driving volatility across FX markets. The Euro is finding support from US Dollar weakness tied to the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate several Trump tariffs, while the administration’s subsequent announcement of a new 15% blanket levy is keeping uncertainty elevated. Sterling is under pressure below 1.3500 as investors are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut as early as March. NZD/USD is hovering around 0.5960–0.5965, struggling to break the key 0.6000 psychological barrier despite some RBNZ hawkish support. USD/CAD is advancing toward 1.3715 ahead of Friday’s pivotal Canada GDP and US PPI releases. The US CB Consumer Confidence report at 20:30 GMT is today’s primary market catalyst.
EUR/USD
1.1795
↓ Neutral · Sell
GBP/USD
1.3480
↓ Neutral · Sell
NZD/USD
0.5962
↑ Bullish · Buy
USD/CAD
1.3715
↑ Neutral · Buy
💱 Forex Markets in Focus Today
📜 SCOTUS Invalidates Trump Tariffs
📈 New 15% Blanket Tariff Announced
🇪🇺 EU Pausing US Trade Agreement
🏦 ECB: Meeting-by-Meeting Flexibility
📊 US PPI Friday — Key Catalyst
💵 USD Structural Weakness
The EUR/USD pair is remaining firm near 1.1795 in early European trading on Tuesday, supported by continued weakness in the US Dollar amid lingering uncertainty over US trade policy. Investors are now turning their attention to the US January Producer Price Index (PPI) report, due later on Friday. On Friday, the US Supreme Court invalidated several tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump. Nevertheless, Trump appears committed to his trade agenda, with the administration signalling plans to implement a new 15% tariff on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the European Union has adopted a cautious stance, as the European Parliament’s trade chief has indicated that the bloc may suspend the ratification of a trade agreement with the US until greater clarity on Washington’s trade strategy is provided. This renewed uncertainty surrounding US trade relations is weighing on the Greenback and offering support to EUR/USD. On the monetary policy front, ECB President Christine Lagarde is emphasising the need for flexibility in policy decisions, reiterating that interest rate moves will be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with risks seen as broadly balanced. A stronger-than-forecast US PPI reading on Friday could lend short-term support to the Dollar and pressure EUR/USD, while a soft reading would likely reinforce the pair’s bullish near-term bias.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 101.1807 · Bearish ▼
EMA 201.1812 · Bearish ▼
EMA 501.1774 · Bullish ▲
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 101.1821 · Bearish ▼
SMA 201.1840 · Bearish ▼
SMA 501.1773 · Bullish ▲
RSI (14-Day)
46.34
Neutral Zone
Stochastic Oscillator
17.13
Sell Zone · Neutral
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 1.2150 | 1.2030 | ~1.1795 | 1.1640 | 1.1520 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionLIMIT SELL
Entry Price1.1841
Take Profit1.1728
Stop Loss1.1925
Neutral — SellShort and medium-term EMAs and SMAs are in negative crossover, but 50-period MAs are both bullish — a technically mixed picture reflecting the macro uncertainty. RSI at 46.34 is neutral; Stochastic at 17.13 adds modest bearish weight. The trade is a sell on a bounce to 1.1841, targeting 1.1728. US PPI on Friday is the key binary event risk that could shift the pair’s direction decisively.
🏦 BoE Rate Cut — March Risk Growing
💵 USD Rebounds
📉 All 6 MAs Bearish — Strongest Bear Signal
📊 US ADP Employment — Today
⚔️ Section 232 Tariffs Signalled
🇬🇧 UK Inflation & Employment Cooling
GBP/USD is slipping after posting gains over the previous two sessions, hovering near 1.3480 during Tuesday’s European trading hours. The pair is weakening as the US Dollar rebounds, while investors are turning their attention to the US ADP Employment Change four-week average and scheduled remarks from Federal Reserve officials later in the day. The pair could find support if the Dollar comes under renewed strain, particularly as foreign investors grow cautious toward US assets amid escalating trade tensions.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Donald Trump’s administration is weighing additional national security tariffs across several sectors following a Supreme Court decision that overturned some of his second-term trade measures. These potential tariffs would be introduced under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and would be separate from the recently announced 15% global import levy. Meanwhile, Sterling remains pressured as investors are increasingly anticipating that the Bank of England may begin lowering interest rates as early as March, amid signs of cooling UK inflation and softer employment conditions. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has noted on the US side that his stance on a potential March rate cut will hinge on February labour market data.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 101.3533 · Bearish ▼
EMA 201.3559 · Bearish ▼
EMA 501.3520 · Bearish ▼
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 101.3549 · Bearish ▼
SMA 201.3613 · Bearish ▼
SMA 501.3531 · Bearish ▼
RSI (14-Day)
42.67
Neutral Zone
Stochastic Oscillator
13.02
Sell Zone · Neutral
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 1.3956 | 1.3832 | ~1.3480 | 1.3432 | 1.3308 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionLIMIT SELL
Entry Price1.3561
Take Profit1.3424
Stop Loss1.3667
Neutral — SellAll six MAs are in negative crossover — the strongest bearish MA signal of any pair covered today. RSI at 42.67 and Stochastic at 13.02 are neutral-to-bearish. BoE March rate cut expectations are the primary fundamental driver of Sterling weakness. S1 at 1.3432 is the immediate downside target; a break below S2 at 1.3308 would signal a more significant bearish extension.
🇳🇿 RBNZ OCR Unchanged at 2.25%
🏦 Rate Hike Pushed to Late 2026
🔑 0.6000 Key Psychological Barrier
📈 RBNZ Governor Breman — Hawkish Tone
💵 Firmer USD Caps Upside
📊 Improving Global Equity Stability
The NZD/USD pair is finding modest support from dip-buyers after failing to break above the key 0.6000 psychological barrier in the previous session. During early European trade on Tuesday, the pair is hovering around the 0.5960–0.5965 zone, up roughly 0.10% on the day, though gains remain limited amid a mixed fundamental backdrop. Last week, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman indicated the central bank could tighten policy sooner if pricing behaviour shifts or if economic growth proves strong enough to sustain higher interest rates.
Combined with improving stability in global equity markets, these remarks are lending some support to the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar, offering a mild tailwind to the pair. However, the RBNZ maintained an accommodative stance after leaving the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% in February, projecting inflation to return to target over the coming year. As a result, markets have pushed expectations for the next rate hike further out to late 2026. Meanwhile, renewed trade tensions and a firmer US Dollar are limiting upside potential. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 15% global tariff following a Supreme Court ruling has heightened concerns over retaliation and supply chain disruptions, keeping safe-haven demand for the Greenback elevated and capping NZD/USD gains below the 0.6000 resistance zone.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 100.5987 · Bearish ▼
EMA 200.5980 · Bearish ▼
EMA 500.5914 · Bullish ▲
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 100.6003 · Bearish ▼
SMA 200.6013 · Bearish ▼
SMA 500.5889 · Bullish ▲
RSI (14-Day)
49.63
Neutral Zone
Stochastic Oscillator
23.53
Sell Zone · Neutral
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 0.6176 | 0.6086 | ~0.5962 | 0.5795 | 0.5705 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionLIMIT BUY
Entry Price0.5949
Take Profit0.6003
Stop Loss0.5919
Bullish — BuyMixed technical picture: short-term MAs are bearish but the longer 50-period MAs are bullish. RSI at 49.63 is near-neutral, offering no strong directional signal. The trade is a buy targeting the 0.6000 psychological level, with a tight stop below 50-day EMA support. RBNZ Governor Breman’s hawkish tone and improving equity market stability are the key fundamental supports for the Kiwi.
🇨🇦 Canada GDP (Friday) — Key Release
📈 USD Edges Higher
🛢 Higher Oil — CAD Tailwind vs USD/CAD
🇺🇸 Trump: Iran Airstrikes Under Consideration
📊 US PPI (Friday) — Parallel Risk
🏦 Fed Waller: March Cut Hinges on Jobs Data
USD/CAD is advancing toward the 1.3715 region in early European trading on Tuesday, as the US Dollar is edging higher against the Canadian Dollar despite lingering uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Investors are looking ahead to Friday’s key releases, including Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and the US January Producer Price Index (PPI). Trade tensions have resurfaced after President Donald Trump cautioned countries against stepping back from recently negotiated agreements, following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn his emergency tariffs.
Trump also signalled plans to introduce a blanket 15% import levy, a move that could ultimately pressure the Greenback against the CAD. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical risks may provide support to crude oil prices, potentially underpinning the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. According to The New York Times, Trump is weighing limited airstrikes on Iran, with the possibility of broader action if diplomatic efforts fail to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. As a major oil exporter, Canada typically benefits from higher crude prices, which tend to strengthen the CAD — creating a natural headwind for USD/CAD upside. Canada’s GDP is forecast to rise 0.1% month-on-month in December; any signs of economic softness could weigh on the Canadian Dollar and offer further support to USD/CAD in the near term.
Technical Overview — Moving Averages
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 101.3666 · Bullish ▲
EMA 201.3667 · Bullish ▲
EMA 501.3723 · Bearish ▼
Simple Moving Averages
SMA 101.3651 · Bullish ▲
SMA 201.3631 · Bullish ▲
SMA 501.3718 · Bearish ▼
RSI (14-Day)
52.86
Buy Zone · Mildly Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator
84.92
Buy Zone · Neutral — Momentum Watch
Key Resistance & Support Levels
| R2 | R1 | Current ~ | S1 | S2 |
|---|
| 1.3950 | 1.3845 | ~1.3715 | 1.3503 | 1.3398 |
Trade Suggestion
DirectionSTOP BUY
Entry Price1.3720
Take Profit1.3855
Stop Loss1.3650
Neutral — BuyShort and medium-term MAs are bullish but the 50-period MA is bearish — mixed picture. RSI at 52.86 is mildly bullish. The trade is a breakout buy above 1.3720. Key risk to the upside: higher crude oil from Iran tensions benefits the commodity-linked CAD and caps USD/CAD gains. Canada GDP on Friday is the pivotal catalyst — weak reading lifts USD/CAD, strong reading pressures it lower.
🌐 Elsewhere in Forex Markets
📅 Key Economic Event Today
🇺🇸 USD — CB Consumer Confidence (February) · 20:30 GMT
The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey for February is the primary scheduled FX market catalyst today. The index measures consumer attitudes about current economic conditions and future expectations — a leading indicator of consumption, growth, and Fed policy expectations. A reading at or above the 87.4 forecast would be dollar-positive: expect short-term downward pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and support for USD/CAD. A miss below 84.5 would be dollar-negative: EUR/USD and NZD/USD would likely find immediate relief, while USD/CAD could pull back. Fed Governor Waller’s comments on the March rate cut decision are also on the agenda today and could add further volatility across dollar pairs.
📋 FX Market Conclusion — 25 February 2026
Today’s FX session is being dominated by two diverging fundamental forces: structural US Dollar weakness driven by the SCOTUS tariff ruling and ongoing US trade policy uncertainty, and a mild near-term Dollar rebound tied to the Fed’s hawkish January FOMC minutes and Governor Waller’s cautious comments on March rate cuts. This push-and-pull dynamic is creating technically mixed signals across all four pairs covered today.
EUR/USD is the most macro-driven pair this week — primarily a story of US trade policy uncertainty supporting the Euro while the Dollar attempts to recover on Fed hawkishness. The technical picture is genuinely mixed with short-term MAs bearish and long-term MAs bullish. The Limit Sell at 1.1841 is a tactical fade of the near-term EUR/USD strength, with Friday’s US PPI as the key binary event risk.
GBP/USD carries the cleanest bearish technical picture of the four pairs today, with all six MAs in negative crossover. The Bank of England rate cut expectations for March are the fundamental anchor for Sterling weakness. The Limit Sell at 1.3561 has strong technical support from the MA configuration and the RSI/Stochastic signals.
NZD/USD is the contrarian bullish play in today’s FX session, with the RBNZ Governor’s hawkish tone and improving risk appetite providing fundamental support. The technical picture is mixed but the 50-day MAs are bullish. The 0.6000 level is the key psychological hurdle — a confirmed break would represent a meaningful shift in NZD/USD’s medium-term trajectory.
USD/CAD is this week’s most data-dependent pair — a Stop Buy breakout above 1.3720, but with Canada GDP and US PPI both landing on Friday as potentially decisive catalysts. Crude oil’s reaction to the Iran talks is an additional variable for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar that could either amplify or neutralise the USD/CAD move.
Trade EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD & USD/CAD with Capital Street FX
Access over 2,000 forex, commodity, and index instruments with ultra-tight spreads from 0.0 pips, leverage up to 1:10,000, and professional-grade execution on every trade.
Open Live Account
Try Free Demo
❓ Frequently Asked Questions — Daily FX Analysis
What is driving EUR/USD toward 1.1800 today?
EUR/USD is remaining firm near 1.1795 because of structural dollar weakness tied to US trade policy uncertainty — specifically the SCOTUS ruling invalidating several Trump tariffs and the subsequent announcement of a new 15% blanket import levy. The EU has adopted a cautious stance, potentially suspending ratification of a US trade agreement until greater clarity emerges. ECB President Lagarde is maintaining a meeting-by-meeting policy approach, keeping the ECB on a broadly balanced footing. The upcoming US PPI release on Friday is the key near-term catalyst that could shift EUR/USD direction.
Why is GBP/USD falling below 1.3500 today?
GBP/USD is weakening below 1.3500 because Sterling is facing a dual headwind: a rebounding US Dollar and growing market expectations that the Bank of England could begin cutting interest rates as early as March, amid cooling UK inflation and softer employment conditions. All six of GBP/USD’s moving averages are in negative crossover territory — the strongest bearish MA configuration of any pair covered today. Key support levels are 1.3432 (S1) and 1.3308 (S2). The trade suggestion is a Limit Sell at 1.3561 targeting 1.3424 with Stop Loss at 1.3667.
What is the NZD/USD outlook and why is 0.6000 such a key level?
NZD/USD is hovering around 0.5960-0.5965 and struggling to break above the 0.6000 psychological barrier. While RBNZ Governor Breman’s hawkish comments offer mild support and improving equity stability provides a tailwind for the risk-sensitive Kiwi, these positives are being offset by a firmer US Dollar, renewed trade tensions from Trump’s 15% global tariff, and expectations that the next RBNZ rate hike has been pushed to late 2026. The 0.6000 level is significant as a major round-number psychological resistance that has capped multiple recent rally attempts.
What is the USD/CAD outlook and what are the key events to watch?
USD/CAD is advancing toward 1.3715 as the USD edges higher ahead of Friday’s key data. Canada’s GDP is forecast to rise 0.1% in December — any softness could weigh on CAD and push USD/CAD higher. However, higher crude oil prices from Iran tensions tend to benefit the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar, creating a natural headwind for USD/CAD. The trade is a Stop Buy at 1.3720 targeting 1.3855 with Stop Loss at 1.3650. Canada GDP and US PPI on Friday are the pivotal catalysts for this pair.
What is the key economic event for FX markets today?
The primary scheduled economic event today is the US CB Consumer Confidence (February) at 20:30 GMT, with a forecast of 87.4 versus the previous 84.5. A beat would support the USD, weighing on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD while supporting USD/CAD. A miss would reinforce Fed rate cut expectations, boosting EUR/USD and other pairs against the Dollar. Fed Governor Waller’s remarks on the March rate cut decision are also on the agenda and could add volatility across dollar pairs.
Are the Bank of England cutting rates in March 2026?
Market pricing is reflecting growing expectations of a Bank of England rate cut as early as March 2026, amid signs of cooling UK inflation and softer employment conditions. This is a market expectation based on current data trends — not a confirmed decision. Sterling is being pressured by these expectations, which is creating a bearish technical and fundamental bias for GBP/USD. Any data suggesting UK economic resilience could quickly reduce these rate cut expectations and cause GBP/USD to recover toward the 1.3832 R1 level.
What are the key levels to watch for EUR/USD today?
EUR/USD key levels: Resistance R1 at 1.2030 and R2 at 1.2150. Support S1 at 1.1640 and S2 at 1.1520. Current price near 1.1795. The trade suggestion is a Limit Sell at 1.1841 with Take Profit 1.1728 and Stop Loss 1.1925. The RSI at 46.34 is neutral and the Stochastic at 17.13 is in the sell zone, adding a modest bearish bias to the technical picture despite the mixed moving average configuration.
Risk Disclaimer: This daily FX analysis is produced by Capital Street FX for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to trade any financial instrument. Forex and CFD trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Leverage can magnify both profits and losses — you could lose more than your initial deposit. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All analysis, indicators, price levels, and trade suggestions are illustrative only and not personalised investment recommendations. Data correct as of 25 February 2026. Capital Street FX is regulated by FSC Mauritius (C112010690) and FSA Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (22064-IBC-2014).
