Daily Index & Market Review – Dow Jones, S&P 500 & FTSE 100 | Capital Street FX
Equities End Week on Stronger Note
U.S. stock markets are finishing last week in positive territory as investors are digesting the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and mixed economic data. The Dow Jones is rising 0.47% to 49,625, the S&P 500 is gaining 0.69% to 6,909, and the Nasdaq is outperforming with a 0.90% jump to 22,886. Markets are focused primarily on tariff fallout, with equities supported by lower supply chain cost expectations, although Trump’s retaliatory UK tariffs are weighing on tech, auto stocks, and UK-exposed companies.
Cautious Tone on Reduced Liquidity
Asian markets are reacting to the Supreme Court’s decision invalidating Trump’s broad IEEPA tariffs, alongside his subsequent 10–15% tariff measures. Bank holidays in China and Japan are reducing liquidity, keeping volatility contained but sentiment cautious. Attention is remaining on prior soft PMI readings and weaker housing data, with no major releases adding fresh directional catalysts.
Markets Under Pressure from Trade Shock
European equities are edging lower as Trump’s revised global tariffs are taking effect. Markets are grappling with uncertainty surrounding the implementation timeline, potential refunds of prior tariffs, and the possibility of renegotiated trade agreements. The EUR is also facing headwinds as Germany’s IFO Business Climate data (expected at 88.4) is approaching — a miss could add further pressure on the single currency and European equities.
📊 Last Week’s Snapshot — U.S. Equities & Bonds
| Instrument | Close / Level | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones (DJIA) | 49,625 | ▲ +0.47% | Tariff relief expectations supporting |
| S&P 500 | 6,909 | ▲ +0.69% | Near record territory; tech resilient |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,886 | ▲ +0.90% | Outperformer; mega-cap tech leading |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 3.478% | ▲ +2.1 bps | Core PCE firmer than expected |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.083% | ▲ +1.5 bps | Higher-for-longer narrative intact |
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA / US30
The Dow is extending gains as trade uncertainty is fuelling volatility — price is remaining above key short-term moving averages.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is extending last week’s gains, remaining above its key short-term moving averages as investors are continuing to assess the impact of renewed tariff measures and resilient U.S. inflation data. The Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate Trump’s broad IEEPA tariff authority is initially sparking optimism over lower supply chain costs, with sectors including manufacturing, retail, and consumer goods benefiting from the ruling.
However, sentiment is turning mixed after President Trump is responding by imposing new retaliatory tariffs of 10–15% on UK goods, which is weighing on tech companies with significant UK market exposure, as well as auto manufacturers dependent on transatlantic supply chains. Treasury yields are edging higher on firm Core PCE data, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates before mid-2026. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak today, and any hawkish signals regarding the rate path could apply further pressure on rate-sensitive Dow components such as financials and utilities.
⚙ Technical Outlook
The Dow is remaining above key short-term moving averages, with momentum indicators stabilizing after last week’s rebound. Immediate resistance is sitting near recent highs, while support is resting around the 49,200 zone. RSI is reflecting neutral-to-positive momentum — not yet overbought — suggesting room for further near-term upside if sentiment holds.📰 Fundamental Outlook
Investors are continuing to assess the impact of renewed tariff measures and resilient U.S. inflation data. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve rate expectations are remaining central drivers of Dow directional bias. Tariff-sensitive industrials and consumer-facing companies are experiencing elevated volatility as the full trade policy picture continues to unfold.Key Levels
Overall Signal
S&P 500 SPX / US500
The S&P 500 is holding firm near record territory amid mixed macro signals — tech resilience and earnings strength are underpinning sentiment.
The S&P 500 is maintaining a constructive structure above its 50-day EMA, holding near record territory at 6,909 after gaining 0.69% last Friday. Strong corporate earnings — particularly from mega-cap technology companies — are continuing to underpin the index, with the AI-driven investment theme providing structural demand for equity exposure even as broader macro conditions remain uncertain.
However, the combination of trade policy uncertainty, firmer-than-expected Core PCE data (which is reinforcing the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance), and the potential second-order effects of U.S.–UK tariff escalation on global supply chains are preventing more aggressive risk-taking. The index is sitting at a critical juncture — a sustained move above recent all-time highs would likely trigger fresh momentum buying, while a failure to hold above 6,800 could invite a pullback toward the 50-day EMA. The S&P 500 is also absorbing the impact of the IEEPA ruling, which is introducing a degree of trade policy re-calibration uncertainty as markets assess what sectors benefit and which face new exposure.
⚙ Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 is maintaining a constructive structure above its 50-day EMA. RSI is suggesting momentum is moderating — not extended — which is leaving room for further upside. A sustained move above recent highs could trigger fresh momentum-driven buying, while 6,800 is acting as near-term support. A breakdown below this level could test the 50-day EMA near 6,650.📰 Fundamental Outlook
Strong corporate earnings and tech sector resilience are underpinning sentiment, but trade policy uncertainty and persistent inflation concerns are capping aggressive risk-taking. The PCE data is reinforcing the view that the Fed is unlikely to cut before mid-2026, which is keeping rate-sensitive sectors under pressure while rewarding cash-generative tech and defensive names.Key Levels
Overall Signal
FTSE 100 UKX / UK100
The FTSE 100 is slipping as global trade tensions are weighing on sentiment — price is consolidating below recent peaks near short-term support.
The FTSE 100 is facing renewed pressure as Trump’s revised global tariff measures — including specific retaliatory action on UK goods — are directly impacting the UK’s largest listed companies. UK exporters with significant U.S. revenue exposure, particularly in the automotive, aerospace, and financial sectors, are seeing heightened selling pressure. The FTSE’s commodity-heavy composition (major oil companies, miners) is also being influenced by global growth uncertainty, as tariff escalation is raising fears about a slowdown in global trade volumes.
Currency dynamics are also playing a role. Sterling volatility is impacting the multi-national earners within the FTSE 100 — many of which report earnings in USD and benefit from a weaker GBP, but are simultaneously facing operational uncertainty from the tariff environment. The Bank of England is maintaining a dovish pivot stance, with additional rate cuts expected through 2026, which could provide some medium-term support to UK domestic-facing equities, even as global headwinds persist. Attention is turning to the German IFO Business Climate survey today, which as a barometer of European business sentiment could influence broader risk appetite across European indices.
⚙ Technical Outlook
The FTSE 100 is trading near short-term support, with price action consolidating below recent peaks. Momentum is remaining neutral-to-soft. A decisive break above resistance could open a recovery move, while a failure to hold current support levels risks extending the correction. Volume is remaining subdued, with the index lacking a strong directional catalyst.📰 Fundamental Outlook
UK equities are facing pressure from renewed US tariff actions and global growth concerns, while currency movements and commodity prices are continuing to influence index performance. BOE rate cut expectations are providing a floor for domestic-facing names, but the tariff overhang and European demand uncertainty are weighing on the index’s ability to break higher convincingly.Key Levels
Overall Signal
🔭 Week Ahead Outlook
🗓 Key Economic Events — Today
| Region | Event | Consensus | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | Germany IFO Business Climate (Feb) | 88.4 | — | 🔴 High |
| USD | Fed Governor Waller Speech | — | — | 🔴 High |
| EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speech | — | — | 🔴 High |
| GLOBAL | Tariff Policy Developments | — | — | 🔴 Ongoing |
