Forex Weekly Report
FX Weekly Outlook: Dollar Volatility Builds
as Tariffs, Yields & Central Banks Drive Sentiment
Key Macro & Geopolitical Forces Shaping FX This Week
The broader macroeconomic backdrop for FX is shifting decisively in February 2026. The US Dollar is continuing to lose its traditional role as a global shock absorber, with structural forces accelerating what analysts are calling the “dollar debasement trade.”
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook EURUSD
Dollar direction is continuing to dictate flow as Eurozone growth is struggling to accelerate
EUR/USD is continuing to consolidate within a defined technical range this week. The European Central Bank is holding rates at approximately 2% and has concluded its easing cycle, which is providing structural Euro support. However, German GDP is contracting in Q4, and the broader bloc is facing stagflationary headwinds.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 1.2085 | 1.1927 | 1.1744 | 1.1574 |
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook GBPUSD
Sterling is remaining sensitive to growth, policy signals, and transatlantic trade dynamics
GBP/USD is trading in a consolidation phase after recent swings driven by UK growth data. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by up to 75 basis points through 2026 as UK economic growth is slowing.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 1.3693 | 1.3509 | 1.3356 | 1.3190 |
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook USDJPY
Yield differentials are narrowing as BOJ tightening and Fed easing are converging
The Bank of Japan is maintaining a gradual tightening bias, and markets are pricing at least one additional 25bp hike in 2026. The narrowing yield spread has historically driven this pair higher, but now provides a bearish anchor.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 156.76 | 154.50 | 152.66 | 149.87 |
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook AUDUSD
The AI commodity supercycle and RBA stance are supporting the Aussie’s standout 2026 performance
AUD/USD is entering the week as a standout performer, CITING an “AI-linked commodity supercycle” — surging global demand for copper and aluminium is creating a structural tailwind for Australia’s terms of trade.
| Level Type | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 0.7250 | 0.7122 | 0.7028 | 0.6923 |
📊 Overall FX Market View — Week of 21 February 2026
FX markets are entering a pivotal week where the intersection of geopolitical realignment, central bank policy divergence, and a landmark US tariff ruling are creating an unusually complex trading environment.
🗓 Key Economic Events This Week
| Currency | Event | Day | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) | Tuesday | High |
| AUD | CPI (QoQ & YoY) — January | Wednesday | High |
| EUR | German GDP (QoQ) — Q4 | Wednesday | High |
| USD | PPI (MoM) — January | Friday | High |
