Index Market Analysis — February 27, 2026 | Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 & FTSE 100 Deep Dive
Friday · 27 February 2026 · Pre-Market Edition
Market Intelligence Desk
Global Index Market Analysis
Nasdaq 100 · S&P 500 · FTSE 100 · Economic Calendar · Trade Setups
01 · Market Snapshot
What Happened Yesterday — And Where We Stand Now
Thursday’s session was defined by a classic “sell-the-news” reaction to Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings. Despite the AI giant smashing every estimate on the board, investors locked in profits, sending tech indices sharply lower. Friday opens on a cautious note with all eyes on the 8:30 AM US PPI print.
Global Index Performance Overview
| Index | Close / Live | Change % | MTD % | YTD % | Trend Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 22,878 | −1.18% | −2.5% | +~6% | Consolidation / Bearish Short |
| S&P 500 | 6,908 | −0.54% | −0.4% | +~4% | Neutral / Range Bound |
| FTSE 100 | 10,885 | +0.36% | +6.5% | +~12% | Bullish / Record High |
| Dow Jones | 49,499 | +0.03% | +1.2% | +~2% | Mild Bullish |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,175 | +0.76% | +4.5% | +~12% | Bullish |
| Nikkei 225 | 56,825 | −1.12% | −2.1% | −3% | Weak / Bearish |
| Hang Seng | 26,413 | −1.10% | −2.3% | +~8% | Mixed / Volatile |
| ASX 200 | 9,081 | −0.05% | +0.6% | +~3% | Neutral |
02 · Economic Calendar
High-Impact Events: Friday 27 February 2026
The headline event for today’s session is the US Producer Price Index (PPI) release at 8:30 AM ET — a data point that will directly influence Fed rate-cut expectations and set the tone for risk appetite into the weekend. Multiple events span global time zones requiring careful positioning management.
| Time (ET) | Country | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Market Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | 🇯🇵 Japan | Tokyo CPI (Feb) | HIGH | ~2.6% | 2.5% YoY | Nikkei, USD/JPY |
| 00:30 | 🇯🇵 Japan | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | MED | 2.5% | 2.4% | JPY pairs |
| 01:00 | 🇨🇳 China | Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 49.8 | 50.1 | Hang Seng, Commodities, Risk Sentiment |
| 01:00 | 🇨🇳 China | Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 52.3 | 52.2 | Global Risk / AUD |
| 01:30 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Private Credit (Jan) | MED | +0.6% | +0.5% | AUD, ASX 200 |
| 02:00 | 🇬🇧 UK | GDP (Q4 2025 Revised) | HIGH | −0.1% QoQ | −0.1% QoQ | FTSE 100, GBP/USD, BoE expectations |
| 02:00 | 🇬🇧 UK | Business Investment (Q4) | HIGH | −0.3% | −0.2% | GBP, FTSE |
| 03:00 | 🇪🇺 Europe | German Retail Sales (Jan) | MED | +0.5% | −1.6% | EUR/USD, DAX |
| 05:00 | 🇪🇺 Europe | Eurozone CPI Flash (Feb) | HIGH | 2.3% YoY | 2.5% | ECB rate cut bets, EUR pairs, Euro Stoxx |
| 08:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | PPI Final Demand MoM (Jan) | HIGH ⭐ | +0.3% | +0.5% | S&P 500, Nasdaq, Fed expectations — HEADLINE EVENT |
| 08:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Core PPI MoM (Jan) | HIGH ⭐ | +0.3% | +0.7% | Nasdaq 100, Fed pivot pricing |
| 10:00 | 🇺🇸 USA | Construction Spending (Jan) | MED | +0.2% | +0.5% | Industrials sector |
| 11:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1 update) | MED | 3.1% | 3.1% | USD, broad sentiment |
| 13:00 | 🇺🇸 USA | Baker Hughes Rig Count | LOW | — | 409 | Oil, energy stocks |
| 15:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Positions | MED | — | −177.8K net | Market sentiment indicator |
Bear case (PPI ≥ +0.5%): A hot number would reinforce “higher-for-longer” fears, amplifying the tech sell-off. S&P 500 could test the critical 6,764 support level with Nasdaq 100 risks extending toward the 22,300–22,500 Fibonacci zone.
03 · Technical Analysis
Deep Dive: Three Major Indices
Full technical breakdown including trend structure, key price levels, moving average alignment, RSI/MACD readings, candlestick patterns and high-probability trade setups for the next 24 hours.
Trend Structure & Price Action
The Nasdaq 100 entered February 2026 in a mature bull market, but the month has exposed cracks beneath the surface. The index has now broken below the floor of its medium-term rising trend channel, a structure that had held since the April 2025 lows. This month is tracking as the worst February performance since March 2025, and the worst monthly result since the April tariff shock. The broader pattern forming across timeframes resembles a potential Double Top, with the October 2025 high and the late-January 2026 high acting as twin peaks — historically a meaningful reversal warning.
That said, the weekly chart signal remains “Strong Buy” on Investing.com’s MA analysis (12/0 buy signals across MA5–MA200), suggesting the longer-term bull structure is not yet broken. This divergence between short-term deterioration and long-term strength is the defining tension for the Nasdaq right now.
Candlestick Patterns
Trend Structure & Price Action
The S&P 500 has been range-bound between 6,800 and 7,000 since the start of December 2025. The February close is tracking a modest loss of 0.4%, but the broader bull structure remains intact — the weekly signal is “Strong Buy” and the monthly signal is equally bullish. Thursday’s close at 6,908 sits just above the critical Fibonacci pivot at 6,893, which has acted as a decisive swing point in recent sessions.
The most important observation for Friday is the S&P futures reading at 6,908.75 with a −0.16% dip pre-market. This puts price directly on the pivot, and the PPI data at 8:30 AM will almost certainly determine the day’s direction. The majority of S&P 500 stocks actually closed higher on Thursday — Nvidia’s 5.5% decline simply overwhelmed positive breadth, which is actually a constructive sign for the bulls.
Candlestick Patterns
Trend Structure & Price Action
The FTSE 100 is the standout global performer of 2026, and that story has intensified this week. The UK blue-chip index is trading at all-time record highs above 10,885 — up more than 23% over the past 12 months. This divergence from US tech indices reflects the FTSE’s structural advantage: it is dominated by globally-focused, internationally-priced companies in banking, mining, defence and energy — sectors that are thriving precisely as US mega-cap tech struggles.
HSBC Holdings’ 7.6% surge to a record high on the back of outstanding wealth management results was the catalyst for Tuesday’s breakout above 10,800. Rolls-Royce — the “FTSE’s answer to Nvidia” — added 5.1% on the same day Nvidia fell 5.5%, illustrating the sector rotation theme perfectly. The RSI has tipped into overbought territory, suggesting consolidation or a minor pullback is increasingly likely in the near term, but the blue-skies momentum argues for targets toward 11,000.
Candlestick Patterns
04 · Macro Themes & Drivers
The Forces Moving Markets Right Now
🤖 AI Capital Expenditure — The Core Debate
The market’s central tension is not whether AI is real — it clearly is — but whether the extraordinary capex programmes at Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta are being priced in with sufficient discipline. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly argued markets “got AI wrong” on software disruption, and his Q1 guidance of $78 billion reinforces that demand remains red-hot at the infrastructure level. But traders are asking the harder question: when does this spending translate into earnings at the application layer?
Until that question is answered, every earnings report from an AI-adjacent name will be stress-tested. The IGV software ETF’s 10%+ February decline is the market’s answer in real time.
🏛️ Fed Policy — Rate Cut Timeline
The Federal Reserve is in a data-dependent holding pattern. Initial jobless claims came in at 212,000 (below the 216,000 consensus), confirming the labour market remains historically tight despite tech layoffs. Today’s PPI release is the final significant inflation datapoint before the next Fed meeting. Markets are currently pricing approximately two rate cuts in 2026, but a hot PPI print would push back those expectations and rattle growth stocks.
AAII bullish sentiment has fallen for four consecutive weeks to just 33.2% — from a recent high of 44.4% — suggesting the retail investor community is rapidly losing confidence. This contrarian indicator argues against aggressive buying right now.
🌍 Trump Tariffs — Evolving Picture
The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA-based emergency tariffs last week. Trump moved quickly, replacing them with a 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — a more legally robust mechanism. The State of the Union confirmed tariffs remain a central policy pillar. Markets have largely absorbed this news, but renewed escalation toward China (potential 25%+ rates) or Europe would be a fresh shock catalyst.
🇬🇧 FTSE Divergence — Why UK Outperforms
The FTSE 100’s remarkable run — up 23% in 12 months and hitting all-time records above 10,885 — is no accident. The index structure is approximately 70% internationally-focused revenues, meaning a weaker pound actually helps. Defence spending across Europe is surging, directly benefiting BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and Babcock. HSBC’s wealth management and Asian banking franchise is booming. Mining stocks gain from strong copper and precious metals pricing. The UK’s “boring” sectors are the 2026 market winners.
Sector Performance Monitor
| Sector | Index | Thu Performance | Feb MTD | Key Driver | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | NDX | −5 to −7% | −12% | Nvidia sell-off, AI capex doubt | Cautious |
| AI/Software (IGV) | NDX/SPX | −2 to −4% | −10%+ | AI automation disruption fears | Bearish ST |
| Financials (XLF) | SPX | +1.7% | +3% | Strong banking earnings, rates | Bullish |
| UK Banks (HSBC/Lloyds) | FTSE | +5 to +8% | +8% | HSBC record, wealth division | Strong Bull |
| UK Defence (RR/BAE) | FTSE | +5% | +7% | NATO spending, AI power demand | Strong Bull |
| Mining (Fresnillo/Anto) | FTSE | +4 to +7% | +6% | Copper/gold at elevated levels | Bullish |
| Consumer Staples | SPX | Mixed | +1% | Defensive rotation | Neutral |
| UK Consumer (Diageo) | FTSE | −13% | −15% | Dividend cut, profit warning | Bearish |
05 · Frequently Asked Questions
Active Traders Ask
Answers to the most relevant and market-moving questions facing professional index traders today.
06 · Conclusion
Today’s Trading Playbook — Bottom Line
February 27, 2026 is a session defined by a single data point: the 8:30 AM ET US PPI release. Everything else — candlestick patterns, pivot levels, trend signals — is secondary until that number prints. Here is the complete directional summary for each market.
