Markets Eye FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium.
USD/CHF climbs toward 0.8080 following weaker-than-expected Swiss industrial data.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW:
The US Dollar strengthened against the Swiss Franc on Monday, recovering Friday’s losses. The Greenback gained ground broadly, with focus shifting to the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting later in the day, while disappointing Swiss industrial production data added to concerns over economic momentum.
Caution prevailed in markets as reports indicated that Trump may push his Ukrainian counterpart to accept Putin’s terms for a peace deal—conditions previously rejected by Zelensky and unlikely to receive European backing at the summit. This risk-sensitive backdrop partially offset expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, which remain at 84% despite Friday’s strong US Retail Sales data, lending additional support to the Dollar.
Traders also remain cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, with the risk that he may not strike a dovish tone. Such an outcome could further cloud the September rate cut outlook.
Meanwhile, Swiss data showed industrial production contracted by 0.1% in Q2, following robust 8.9% growth in Q1. The slowdown highlights the strain from steep US tariffs on Swiss exports, raising the likelihood that the SNB may eventually push rates deeper into negative territory.
USD/CHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHART:
Technical Overview:
USD/CHF is trading within an up channel.
USD/CHF is moving above the 50- and 100-day Moving Averages (SMA).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in Bullish Zone, while the Stochastic oscillator suggests a Neutral trend.
Immediate Resistance level: 0.8132
Immediate support level: 0.8019
HOW TO TRADE USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair, after a significant decline, has found a bottom and reversed its course, pushing higher. It decisively broke above a key resistance level with a strong bullish candle, signalling considerable buying strength. Currently, the pair is retesting this broken resistance, which now acts as a support zone. If it holds above this level, we could see further upside movement for USD/CHF.
