⚠ Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. All prices are sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, Investing.com, TradingView, FXDailyReport, and LiteFinance as of close of business 27–28 February 2026 (UTC). Markets move rapidly — always verify prices via your broker before executing trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading leveraged instruments involves substantial risk of loss.
Chapter 01
Live Market Snapshot
Prices as of Friday 28 February 2026 close — Asia-London overlap session
Gold (XAU/USD)
$5,270
+0.48% WTD
Silver (XAG/USD)
$90.50
+2.15% WTD
WTI Crude
$65.21
+0.43% WTD
Brent Crude
$70.15
+0.38% WTD
Natural Gas
$2.827
−0.84% WTD
Copper ($/lb)
$5.96
+0.37% WTD
DXY (USD Index)
97.85
−0.12% WTD
EUR/USD
1.1812
−0.21% WTD
GBP/USD
1.3510
−0.44% WTD
USD/JPY
154.80
+0.28% WTD
AUD/USD
0.6395
−0.18% WTD
VIX
18.4
Elevated
Chapter 02
Macro Context & Market Narrative
What is actually driving commodity and currency markets this week
Commodity markets enter the first week of March 2026 navigating a genuinely charged environment — one shaped by three converging forces: geopolitical tail risk in the Middle East, a softening US dollar as Fed rate-cut expectations price in, and a structural divergence opening between metals (outperforming) and energy/agriculture (under pressure). This is not simply a risk-on or risk-off week. It is a week of selective, theme-driven positioning where experienced traders must read both the macro and the technicals before committing size.
Commodity markets have entered 2026 with an unusually wide dispersion in price performance. Sector-specific fundamentals are now playing a more decisive role than broad macro forces — precious and battery metals are forecast to outperform, while energy and agricultural commodities face continued headwinds from supply expansion and subdued demand growth.
— Oxford Economics, Commodity Market Divergence Report, Feb 25, 2026
Three headline catalysts dominate trader attention heading into the week of March 2:
1. US-Iran Nuclear Talks (Ongoing, Geneva): After a third inconclusive round of negotiations on Thursday February 26, the talks remain the single most potent tail-risk for crude oil pricing. A breakdown — or reports of military action — could add an estimated $15–20/bbl to Brent in hours. Conversely, a deal framework would trigger a sharp oil selloff. Crude traders must maintain wider stops than usual and monitor news feeds through Thursday’s Asian and European sessions.
2. US NFP Report (Friday March 6): The most important US data point of the week. Non-Farm Payrolls for February land at 13:30 UTC on Friday. Given current Fed hold at 3.50–3.75%, a weak print would ramp up rate-cut probability, weighing on the dollar and lifting gold. A strong print could delay cuts to Q4 2026 and strengthen the USD. This is a binary event for every dollar-denominated commodity.
3. Global PMI Sweep (Monday–Wednesday): Manufacturing PMIs from China, Japan, UK, Eurozone, and the US land Monday March 2. Services PMIs follow Wednesday. These will reveal whether the divergence between US slowdown and Asia/Europe strengthening is solidifying — a trend that, if confirmed, extends the structural case for a weaker dollar and stronger commodity pricing in developed-market currencies.
DXY Context: The US Dollar Index sits near 97.85, having broken below the key 98.68 pivot zone. Aggregate speculative positioning is net-short the USD by the most extreme level since March 2021. While DXY bears are stretched, conviction remains — and a weak NFP Friday could accelerate the decline toward 96.00.
Chapter 03
High-Impact Economic Calendar
Week of March 2–6, 2026 · USA, UK, Japan, Australia, Eurozone & China only · UTC times
| Date / Time |
Country |
Event |
Previous |
Forecast |
Impact |
| 01:45 UTC |
🇨🇳China |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Key private sector factory activity gauge — closely watched given China’s macro slowdown narrative
|
50.8 |
50.6 |
HIGH |
| 09:00 UTC |
🇪🇺Eurozone |
HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (Feb)
Flash reading pointed to slight improvement; confirmation matters for EUR positioning
|
46.6 |
47.3 |
HIGH |
| 09:30 UTC |
🇬🇧UK |
S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI Final (Feb)
Business optimism at 17-month high per flash data; final reading expected to confirm
|
48.3 |
49.1 |
MED |
| 15:00 UTC |
🇺🇸USA |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
January shocked to 52.6 — best in 3 years. February is expected to pull back slightly but hold above 50. A miss below 50 would be USD-negative, gold-positive.
|
52.6 |
50.8 |
HIGH |
| 00:30 UTC |
🇦🇺Australia |
GDP Growth Rate Q4 2025 (Final)
A miss below 0.3% QoQ would reinforce RBA easing bets and pressure AUD/USD lower
|
0.3% |
0.4% |
HIGH |
| 00:50 UTC |
🇯🇵Japan |
Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Labor market tightness feeds BoJ normalisation narrative. Below 2.4% strengthens JPY
|
2.4% |
2.4% |
MED |
| 10:00 UTC |
🇪🇺Eurozone |
CPI Flash Estimate (Feb)
January came in at 1.7% YoY. A surprise below 1.5% would open door for more ECB cuts, weighing on EUR/USD
|
1.7% |
1.8% |
HIGH |
| 00:30 UTC |
🇦🇺Australia |
AiG Industry Index (Feb)
Broad industry health indicator — supplemental context for RBA decision path
|
— |
— |
MED |
| 09:00 UTC |
🇪🇺Eurozone |
GDP Q4 2025 Final (Eurozone)
Third estimate of Q4 growth — Germany’s fiscal shift gives upside risk vs prior estimates
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
HIGH |
| 13:15 UTC |
🇺🇸USA |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Feb)
Pre-cursor to Friday’s NFP. A strong ADP print typically supports USD and weighs on gold into Friday
|
183K |
175K |
HIGH |
| 15:00 UTC |
🇺🇸USA |
ISM Services PMI (Feb)
Services constitute ~77% of US GDP. A reading below 50 would be a major negative surprise for USD
|
52.8 |
52.5 |
HIGH |
| 00:30 UTC |
🇦🇺Australia |
Balance of Trade (Jan)
Commodity export surplus data — directly linked to AUD strength. Iron ore and coal prices feed directly
|
A$5.62B |
A$5.00B |
MED |
| 09:30 UTC |
🇬🇧UK |
S&P Global UK Construction PMI (Feb)
Proxy for domestic demand and housing sector — influences BoE rate-cut timing bets
|
50.2 |
50.5 |
MED |
| 13:30 UTC |
🇺🇸USA |
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Traders watch this to calibrate Friday’s NFP risk. A spike above 220K increases odds of weak payrolls
|
219K |
215K |
HIGH |
| 13:30 UTC |
🇺🇸USA |
US Trade Balance (Jan)
Tariff-front-loading dynamic likely widened deficit — impacts Q1 GDP estimates and commodity trade flows
|
-$98.4B |
-$105.0B |
MED |
| 13:30 UTC |
🇺🇸USA |
★ Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb)
The week’s marquee event. Previous: +215K. Forecast: +195K. A miss below 150K would be sharply USD-bearish, gold-bullish. Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings release simultaneously.
|
+215K |
+195K |
CRITICAL |
| 13:30 UTC |
🇺🇸USA |
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb)
Inflation component of NFP release. Hot wages = Fed hawkish, USD up, gold down
|
+0.3% |
+0.3% |
HIGH |
| 09:00 UTC |
🇪🇺Eurozone |
Eurozone GDP Q4 Final + Retail Sales (Jan)
Growth and consumption data that feed EUR/USD direction ahead of NFP volatility
|
0.3% |
0.4% |
HIGH |
Chapter 04
Commodity Technical Analysis
Detailed structure, key levels, patterns, and weekly bias for each major commodity
Key Levels
Resistance 2
$5,600 (2026 High)
Resistance 1
$5,500 (Psychological)
Gold Zone (Fib)
$5,271–5,249
Current Price
$5,270
Support 1
$5,000 (Psychological / Key)
Support 2
$4,841 (Swing Low)
Major Support
$4,400–4,500 (Broadening Wedge)
Technical Setup
Trend (Daily)Bullish — higher highs & higher lows
Trend (Weekly)Strong Bull — multi-year uptrend
PatternBroadening Wedge (Megaphone)
CandlestickInside consolidation — pause candle
RSI (Daily)~68 — momentum strong, not overbought
50-day MA~$5,090 — price well above
200-day MA~$4,760 — major dynamic support
Key Levels
Resistance 2$120.00 (Recent High / Target)
Resistance 1$100.00 (Psychological Major)
Near Target$92.155 (Swing High)
Current Price$90.50
Support 1$82–85 (Prior Breakout Zone)
Support 2$70.00 (Major Support Floor)
Bear ScenarioBreak of $70 → $50 target
Technical Setup
Trend (Daily)Bullish extension — new HH
Trend (Weekly)Price-discovery territory
PatternTrendline breakout + HH/HL
CandlestickBullish continuation — strong closes
MomentumStrong — confirmed higher-high
Gold/Silver Ratio~58x — Silver outperforming
Technical Target$72–$88 (Measured Move)
Key Levels
Resistance 2$70.00 (Structural Target)
Resistance 1$67.20–67.21 (Feb 23 High)
Current Price$65.21
Support A$65.08–64.87 (Intraday S/R)
Support B$64.02–63.70 (Trend Boundary)
Bear Target$62.00 (Below $63.70)
Long-term Bear~$59 avg (MS Forecast)
Technical Setup
Trend (Daily)Range consolidation $65–$67.20
Trend (Weekly)Bearish channel from H1 2025
PatternBull flag / tight consolidation
CandlestickDoji / indecision near resistance
RSI (Daily)~52 — neutral
Key BreakoutClose above $67.21 = bull signal
Iran Risk+$15–20/bbl tail risk
Key Levels
Resistance 1$3.20 (Short-term cap)
Resistance 2$3.50–3.60 (Channel top)
Current Price$2.827
Support 1$2.60 (Seasonal low zone)
Support 2$2.40 (2023 low area)
StorageSub-1.9 Tcf by Mar-end (EIA)
Haynesville MC$3.90/MMBtu (supply floor)
Technical Setup
Trend (Daily)Bearish — descending channel
Trend (Weekly)Descending channel since Dec 2025
PatternBreakdown below ascending channel
CandlestickBearish continuation — lower highs
LNG Supply+7% YoY in 2026 (BloombergNEF)
Winter EndWithdrawal season ending
Catalyst UpSupply disruption / cold snap
· · ◆ · ·
Chapter 05
Weekly Commodity At-a-Glance
Consolidated reference table for all major commodities — week of March 2, 2026
| Commodity |
Price |
Weekly Trend |
Key Support |
Key Resistance |
Candlestick |
Bias |
|
Gold
XAU/USD
|
$5,270 |
Primary Bull |
$5,000 |
$5,500 |
Inside / Consolidation |
Bullish |
|
Silver
XAG/USD
|
$90.50 |
Extension |
$70.00 |
$100.00 |
Bullish continuation |
Strongly Bullish |
|
WTI Crude
CL1!
|
$65.21 |
Range $65–$67.20 |
$64.02 |
$67.21 |
Doji / Indecision |
Neutral/Watch |
|
Brent Crude
BRN1!
|
$70.15 |
Range Breakout Watch |
$68.50 |
$72.00 |
Spinning top |
Neutral |
|
Natural Gas
NG1!
|
$2.827 |
Descending Channel |
$2.60 |
$3.20 |
Bearish continuation |
Bearish |
|
Copper
HG1!
|
$5.96/lb |
Structural Bull |
$5.60 |
$6.20 |
Bullish flag |
Bullish |
|
Wheat
ZW1!
|
~$550/bu |
Weather Rally |
$530 |
$575 |
Bullish engulfing (wk) |
Cautious Bull |
Chapter 06
Major Currency Pairs — Technical Analysis & Trade Setups
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · AUD/USD — Full analysis, candlestick patterns & actionable setups
The US Dollar Index (DXY) sits near 97.85, having broken below the key 98.68 pivot zone defined by the August high-day close and the 38.2% retracement of the November decline. The aggregate speculative net-short USD positioning is at its most bearish extreme since March 2021 — a $22.8 billion short position. While a technical counter-rally is possible (stretched sentiment), the macro fundamentals (Fed on hold at 3.50–3.75%, two rate cuts priced for 2026, fiscal concerns) support the medium-term bearish USD thesis. This week’s NFP report on Friday is the definitive binary event for the dollar.
Trend (Daily)
Bullish, correction underway
Trend (Weekly)
Medium-term uptrend
2026 Range
High 1.2081 / Low 1.1579
55-day SMA
~1.1770 (near-term support)
200-day SMA
~1.1470 (structural support)
Support B
1.1758–1.1725 (tested/held)
Resistance A
1.1860–1.1870
Key Bull Target
1.1983 / 1.2092 / 1.2218
Candlestick Patterns: Daily shooting star printed near 1.18 handle, hinting at near-term bullish exhaustion and flagging pullback risk. Weekly candle shows indecision. EUR/USD quickly faded Wednesday’s bull run — classic ‘fade the rally’ pattern within broader uptrend. Bearish correction retested support B at 1.1758–1.1725 and appears to be stabilizing.
Trade Setup — Scenario A (Bull Case)
BiasBuy on dip
Entry Zone1.1740–1.1770 (55-day SMA area)
TP 11.1860
TP 21.1983
Stop Loss1.1700 (below support B)
CatalystWeak NFP Friday → USD selloff
Scenario B (Bear Case)
TriggerBreak & close below 1.1725
Target1.1650–1.1639 (Gold Zone)
Stop1.1810 (above resistance)
Trend (Daily)
Downward pressure — BoE risk
Trend (Weekly)
Range — 2026 low 1.3347 / high 1.3867
Key Support
1.3500 (Psychological / Current)
Key Resistance
1.3620 / 1.3700 / 1.3867
UK Unemployment
5.2% (highest since 2021)
BoE Rate
Cut priced in for March 2026
Wage Growth
Lowest in ~4 years
COT Positioning
Bearish engulf — initiation selling
Candlestick Patterns: GBP/USD has seen a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart — a classic bearish initiation signal. Price is testing the 1.3500 psychological support. The prior week showed two consecutive days of losses, printing a short-term double-top structure near 1.3620. Negative sentiment toward GBP is increasing per COT data, with large speculators initiating fresh shorts. The BoE cut expected in March adds fundamental weight.
Trade Setup — Scenario A (Bear Case / Primary)
BiasSell the rally
Entry Zone1.3560–1.3600 (pullback to resistance)
TP 11.3450
TP 21.3347 (2026 low)
Stop Loss1.3650
InvalidationDaily close above 1.3700
Scenario B (Bull) — Weak NFP
TriggerNFP miss + close above 1.3620
Target1.3750–1.3867
Stop1.3540
Trend (Daily)
Fading — slipped below 155
Trend (Weekly)
Wide range — 140–162 since 2024
Critical Level
155.00 — “line in the sand” (MOF)
Resistance
158.90 / 161.95 (bull continuation)
Support Zone
148.65–145.85 / 200-day MA
Major Support
140.25–137.35 (major range bottom)
BoJ Path
Rate hike cycle — yield diff converging
JPMorgan Target
139 by March 2026
Candlestick Patterns: USD/JPY posted its first daily close below 155 in a month — a bearish signal that previous MOF officials flagged as significant. The weekly RSI is shaping a bearish reaction at its descending resistance in the overbought zone, suggesting the multi-month upmove from April 2025 is losing momentum. Large speculators flipped to net-long JPY for the first time in five weeks — a sentiment shift that historically precedes JPY strengthening phases.
Trade Setup — Primary Bearish (Sell USD/JPY)
BiasSell rallies — fade USD strength
Entry Zone155.00–156.00 (retest of broken support)
TP 1151.00
TP 2148.65
TP 3 (swing)145.85
Stop Loss157.50 (above structure)
InvalidationWeekly close above 158.90
Trend (Daily)
4th down session — doji forming
Trend (Weekly)
Bullish continuation signal (OANDA)
October High
0.6400 (doji above = swing low?)
Resistance
0.6480 / 0.6550 / 0.6620
Support
0.6360 / 0.6300 / 0.6240
Australia GDP
Q4 Final Tuesday — key catalyst
RBA Rate Path
Easing cycle — headwind for AUD
COT Positioning
Asset managers flip to net-long AUD
Candlestick Patterns: AUD/USD fell for a fourth consecutive session, but a wide-legged doji formed and price held above the October high — a classic near-term swing-low hint. This “hammer-like” doji at a structural support suggests seller exhaustion. Asset managers flipped to net-long AUD for the first time since October, and shorts declined for an eighth consecutive week — the lowest level in 40 weeks. The wide doji with long lower wick is a potential bullish reversal signal if confirmed with a bullish candle next session.
Trade Setup — Scenario A (Buy AUD Dip)
BiasBuy on confirmation
TriggerBullish close above 0.6420 Mon/Tue
Entry0.6400–0.6420
TP 10.6480
TP 20.6550
Stop Loss0.6350
Key RiskAustralia GDP miss Tuesday = AUD dump
Scenario B (Sell AUD — GDP Miss)
TriggerGDP below 0.2% QoQ Tuesday
Entry0.6395–0.6410 (reaction sell)
Target0.6300–0.6240
Currency Pairs — Weekly Consolidated Reference
| Pair |
Price |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Pattern |
Weekly Bias |
NFP Impact |
EUR/USD |
1.1812 |
Bull Correction |
1.1725 |
1.1983 |
Shooting Star daily |
Buy Dips |
Weak NFP → 1.1983+ |
GBP/USD |
1.3510 |
Bearish bias |
1.3347 |
1.3620 |
Bearish engulfing (wk) |
Sell Rallies |
Weak NFP → 1.3700 |
USD/JPY |
154.80 |
Reversal Risk |
148.65 |
158.90 |
Below 155 — bearish close |
Sell Rallies |
Weak NFP → 151–148 |
AUD/USD |
0.6395 |
Consolidating |
0.6350 |
0.6480 |
Wide-legged Doji (swing low?) |
Watch GDP Tue |
Risk-on → 0.6480+ |
· · ◆ · ·
Chapter 08
Frequently Asked Questions
Common trader questions answered for the week of March 2–6, 2026
Why is gold still rising despite elevated interest rates?
Gold’s relationship with real rates has been partially decoupled since 2024. While conventional wisdom says higher rates are bearish for gold, the metal has been driven by three structural forces that override this: (1) persistent central bank buying programs from emerging market banks seeking to diversify USD reserves, (2) geopolitical risk premia — US-Iran tensions, the ongoing Ukraine conflict, and tariff war anxiety all create safe-haven demand, and (3) sovereign fiscal deterioration — the US deficit-to-GDP ratio above 6% erodes long-term USD confidence. As Bernstein noted this week, gold is “overbought but never over-owned,” meaning institutional allocations still have room to grow. Until US fiscal policy tightens materially or geopolitical risk subsides, the structural case for gold remains intact regardless of near-term rate moves.
Is silver’s rally sustainable, or is this another bubble setup?
Silver’s current rally has meaningfully different underpinnings compared to the 2011 bubble. Then, the driver was purely speculative positioning. Today, the structural demand side is genuinely shifting: AI data centers are a major new silver consumer (silver paste in chipboard connections), solar panel demand is growing exponentially (~3oz per panel), and EVs use significantly more silver per vehicle than combustion engines. Supply simply cannot keep pace — no major new silver mines have reached production in several years. The breakout above $54 (a 13-year resistance) was a genuine technical event. Yes, volatility is extreme and CME has already raised margins — but the underlying fundamental thesis is arguably stronger than at any point in silver’s history. Traders should manage risk aggressively with appropriate position sizing, but the structural case is not bubble-like.
How should I trade around NFP week for commodities?
Non-Farm Payrolls has a direct transmission mechanism to commodity prices via the USD. The practical approach experienced traders use: (1) reduce position sizes heading into Thursday evening, as pre-NFP volatility tends to be whipsawing, (2) note the ADP Employment figure on Wednesday as a directional signal — if ADP misses badly, position for gold upside, (3) on NFP day itself, wait for the initial reaction to settle (~5–10 minutes post-release) before entering, as the first move is often reversed, (4) the dollar-commodity correlation means a weak payroll number (below 150K) is typically the most gold-bullish and oil-neutral outcome, while a strong print (above 250K) supports the USD and pressures metals. Always check Average Hourly Earnings simultaneously — hot wages with weak jobs is a unique stagflation signal.
What’s the most important technical level to watch on WTI crude this week?
Without question, the $67.21 level — the February 23 high. Crude has tested this resistance multiple times without a decisive daily close above it. If we get a strong session close above $67.21, it would confirm the bullish breakout and open the measured-move target toward $70.00. Below $65.00, the structure weakens considerably and targets $62.00. The secondary variable is Iran: the ongoing nuclear talks in Geneva create binary risk that makes normal technical analysis less reliable than usual. Crude traders should keep position sizes smaller than normal this week and use options hedges if available, given the potential for a $15–20 gap move if diplomatic channels break down completely.
Why is USD/JPY facing so much pressure despite the Bank of Japan still hiking slowly?
The USD/JPY story in 2026 is really about convergence — the narrowing yield differential between US Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds. As the BoJ proceeds with measured rate hikes while the Fed is holding and eyeing cuts, the interest rate gap that supported a weak yen for years is shrinking. Large speculative traders flipped to net-long JPY for the first time in five weeks — historically a leading indicator of yen appreciation phases. Additionally, USD/JPY has hit the upper boundary of its major multi-year sideways range (140–162) with RSI in overbought territory at a descending resistance. These conditions historically produce meaningful reversals. Japan’s improving economic data (manufacturing PMI at a near 3.5-year high in January) also supports the normalisation narrative. Key risk to this view: if US-Iran tensions significantly escalate, risk-off flows could temporarily support the yen regardless of rate dynamics.
Should I be concerned about natural gas given the end of winter withdrawal season?
Yes — the near-term outlook for US natural gas is genuinely bearish. The EIA projects storage will fall below 1.9 Tcf by end of March (below the 5-year average), which would normally be supportive. However, the supply-side expansion is overwhelming this: global LNG production is growing by 7% in 2026 (the fastest since 2019), driven primarily by new US and Canadian terminals. Permian pipeline capacity additions will accelerate H2 supply. The structural uptrend from 2023 lows has broken down on the technical charts. Unless a late-season cold snap disrupts the transition or a major supply disruption occurs, the path of least resistance for natural gas remains lower toward the $2.60 support area. This aligns with consensus forecasts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for TTF gas prices of €28–30/MWh in 2026 — approximately $349–364 per 1,000 cubic meters.
How does China’s PMI data affect commodity prices in practice?
China remains the world’s largest consumer of most industrial commodities — it accounts for roughly 50% of global copper demand, ~15% of global oil demand, and dominant shares of iron ore, coal, and agricultural imports. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI (released Monday at 01:45 UTC) is the private-sector gauge that traders prefer because it covers a broader range of smaller firms. A reading above 51.0 signals healthy factory activity and typically lifts copper, oil, and base metals. The relationship is most direct for copper (China’s data center and EV construction boom), moderately strong for crude oil (industrial transport and manufacturing fuel), and weakest for precious metals (gold and silver have primarily Western and safe-haven drivers). This week’s data is particularly relevant because the PMI trend over the next two months will shape whether copper can sustain its current level above $5.90/lb.
Conclusion: The Week Ahead in Perspective
The week of March 2–6, 2026 is a genuinely high-stakes trading week — not because of a single event, but because of the intersection of multiple independent catalysts that could each move markets significantly in isolation. The NFP report on Friday remains the week’s anchor event for the dollar and dollar-denominated commodities. The Iran nuclear talks represent binary geopolitical tail risk for crude. And the global PMI sweep on Monday and Wednesday will update traders on the divergence thesis between US slowdown and European/Asian acceleration.
For commodity traders, the structural themes remain clear heading into Q2 2026: metals are the sector to be long (gold on safe-haven/fiscal concerns, silver on structural industrial deficit, copper on data center demand), while energy faces a supply-heavy medium-term headwind (OPEC+ unwinding, US/Canadian LNG expansion, weakening industrial demand), and natural gas is the weakest commodity technically and fundamentally in the current environment.
For forex traders, the overarching theme is carefully managed USD exposure. The net-short dollar positioning at five-year extremes means the USD is vulnerable to squeeze rallies on strong data — but the fundamental drivers (rate cut trajectory, fiscal deterioration, tariff uncertainty) continue to favor non-USD currencies over the medium term. USD/JPY is the most structurally compelling trade for directional conviction. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are more event-driven this week given the European data calendar.
As always, the most important thing is not to be right about the direction — it is to manage risk correctly when you are wrong. This week demands wider stops, smaller positions on high-impact event days, and patience for confirmation rather than anticipatory entries. The setups are there. Execute them with discipline.
