Weekly Crypto Market Analysis | March 1–7, 2026
Bitcoin Seeks Footing in the $65K–$70K Range
as Macro Headwinds Persist Into March
Markets enter the new week under pressure from Trump tariff uncertainty, rising geopolitical risk, and institutional ETF outflows. Yet oversold oscillators and long-term holder accumulation point to a high-conviction inflection zone.
The Week That Was — And What It Means for March
February 2026 has been one of the most bruising months in crypto since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is down roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak of $125,000–$126,000, a decline attributed to six converging macro and structural forces. Here is what experienced traders need to know heading into the week of March 1.
The dominant narrative entering March is one of orderly deleveraging rather than capitulation. VanEck’s digital assets team notes that while the speed of Bitcoin’s February move was extreme — registering a –6.05σ rate-of-change event on February 5 — the structural mechanics (leverage reduction, not disorderly unwinding) suggest we are closer to a bottoming process than a further freefall.
Six forces drove the February selloff: Trump’s 15% global tariff announcement on February 23; a tech-stock collapse spilling over from AI trade concerns led by Nvidia’s guidance; record liquidations of $2.56–$3.2 billion; Bitcoin ETFs flipping to net sellers for the first time since launch; a technical breakdown below the 365-day moving average; and geopolitical risk from U.S.–Iran tensions. Any softening of these headwinds — particularly tariff clarity — could trigger a sharp relief rally from deeply oversold levels.
The bullish case is not dead. On-chain data shows long-term holders are withdrawing coins from exchanges, not selling — a historically strong accumulation signal. Bitcoin exchange reserves hit multi-year lows in January 2026, with 20,000 BTC leaving exchanges in a single week. The question for the week ahead is whether macro catalysts (PCE data, PMI releases, potential tariff signals) act as triggers for either continued pressure or a relief bounce.
Crypto Market Snapshot: February 28, 2026
| Asset | Price (USD) | 24h Change | 7d Change | MTD Change | Market Cap | Weekly RSI | Trend Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $65,884 | +0.6% | +1.65% | –22.83% | $1.33T | 28 | Bearish |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,927 | +1.7% | –8% | –18% | $232B | 25 | Bearish |
| Solana (SOL) | $88.28 | +7.03% | –11.3% | –28% | $42B | 24 | Bearish |
| XRP | $1.42 | –3.7% | –0.1% | –15% | $82B | 30 | Bearish |
| BNB | $384 | +1.2% | +2.8% | –12% | $57B | 33 | Neutral |
| Cardano (ADA) | $0.68 | +3.1% | +4.2% | –19% | $24B | 27 | Neutral |
The most notable development in the weekly tape is the clear divergence between altcoin performance. While the macro backdrop was uniformly negative heading into Friday, Cardano, Solana, Ethereum, and BNB all posted modest positive weekly returns — with Solana leading the pack on Saturday with a 7% burst. XRP was the notable outlier, down 3.7% in 24 hours and the sole major asset in the red on a 7-day basis, suggesting token-specific distribution or structural rotation away from the Ripple ecosystem.
The altcoin outperformance relative to Bitcoin is a nuanced positive signal. It suggests that risk appetite — while subdued — has not fully collapsed. Institutional capital appears to be making targeted sector rotations (Layer-1 protocols, DeFi-adjacent assets) rather than exiting crypto wholesale. Asian equities, meanwhile, are on track for their best February since 1998, led by South Korean tech up ~20% for the month, which is drawing some capital away from both U.S. equities and crypto.
High-Impact Events: Week of March 2–7, 2026
The upcoming week is packed with tier-1 economic data releases across all major economies. Traders must treat each of these events as a potential volatility trigger for crypto markets, particularly U.S. PCE data and the NFP report.
| Date (UTC) | Country | Event | Impact | Previous | Forecast | Crypto Impact Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Mar 2 | 🇨🇳 China | Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 50.1 | 50.3e | Beat = Risk-on |
| Mon, Mar 2 | 🇺🇸 USA | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 49.8 | 49.9e | Contraction = Bearish |
| Mon, Mar 2 | 🇯🇵 Japan | Industrial Production (Jan) | MED | –0.2% | +0.5%e | Moderate risk signal |
| Tue, Mar 3 | 🇦🇺 Australia | RBA Interest Rate Decision | HIGH | 4.10% | 4.10%e | Hold expected; cut = AUD risk-on |
| Wed, Mar 4 | 🇺🇸 USA | ADP Employment Change (Feb) | HIGH | 130K | 145Ke | Neutral if in-line |
| Wed, Mar 4 | 🇬🇧 UK | Services PMI Final (Feb) | HIGH | 50.8 | 51.2e | GBP/market risk indicator |
| Thu, Mar 5 | 🇪🇺 Europe | ECB Interest Rate Decision | HIGH | 3.15% | 3.00%e | Cut = Risk-On ✓ |
| Thu, Mar 5 | 🇺🇸 USA | Jobless Claims (weekly) | HIGH | 219K | 215Ke | Below 230K = stable |
| Thu, Mar 5 | 🇺🇸 USA | ISM Services PMI (Feb) | HIGH | 52.9 | 53.0e | Expansion needed |
| Fri, Mar 6 | 🇺🇸 USA | Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb) | HIGH ⚡ | 130K | 175Ke | Weak NFP = BTC bullish |
| Fri, Mar 6 | 🇺🇸 USA | US Unemployment Rate (Feb) | HIGH ⚡ | 4.1% | 4.0%e | Higher = Fed cut hopes = BTC up |
| Sat, Mar 7 | 🇨🇳 China | Trade Balance (Feb) | HIGH | $104.8B | $98Be | Demand indicator; miss = bearish |
The most consequential event of the week is Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls for February. January’s print was soft at 130,000 jobs (vs 150K expected), with government employment declining by 42,000. A second consecutive weak print could significantly advance expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 — futures currently price a March cut probability at only 9.8%, but this would jump materially on disappointing NFP data. For crypto, weaker employment = higher rate-cut probability = risk-on tailwind.
Core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred inflation metric) showed January at 2.4% YoY — with Moody’s estimating it would be 2.7% absent the government shutdown data distortion. The Fed remains on hold until June 2026 per futures pricing, with the committee seeking further evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%.
The ECB rate decision on Thursday is expected to deliver a 15bp cut to 3.00%, which would represent the sixth consecutive cut in this cycle. A dovish ECB is historically correlated with global liquidity expansion — a gentle positive for risk assets including crypto.
China’s Manufacturing PMI on Monday sets the tone for the week. A reading above 50 would signal expansion and support commodities and risk sentiment. Japan’s Industrial Production and Australia’s RBA decision are secondary but worth monitoring for broader risk signals, particularly given that MSCI Asia Pacific is on track for its best February since 1998.
BTC/USD — Bitcoin
Medium-term (1–2 weeks): Neutral/Cautiously Bullish. Oversold weekly RSI + compressed funding rates + long-term holder accumulation creates a “spring-loaded” setup. NFP Friday is the catalyst watch.
Dominant Outlook: Range $62,000–$70,000 until a decisive breakout or macro shift.
ETH/USD — Ethereum
Medium-term (1–2 weeks): Cautiously Bullish. Falling wedge + weekly RSI at 25 + negative funding = high-conviction reversal setup IF macro cooperates. Ethereum has a 3-pronged development roadmap for 2026: throughput scaling, UX improvement, and base-layer security enhancements. ECB cut on Thursday is a potential catalyst.
Dominant Outlook: Range $1,700–$2,200 with asymmetric risk to the upside.
SOL/USD — Solana
Medium-term (1–2 weeks): Neutral. The weekly trend remains bearish. SOL’s move lacks a fundamental catalyst and depends entirely on BTC holding the $65K–$67K range. Any BTC breakdown toward $60K would likely drag SOL to $78 or below.
Key Watch: Can SOL convert $91.55 resistance into support? That is the decisive signal for a trend change. The $78 major horizontal support is described by analysts as a “screaming buy” if reached.
XRP/USD — Ripple XRP
Medium-term (1–2 weeks): Cautiously Bearish unless $1.40 reclaimed. Ripple’s institutional narrative (t54 Labs AI investment, XRPL Batch Transactions, institutional DeFi tools, Permissioned DEX) is constructive for the longer-term story, but the technical picture must improve first.
Key Watch: $1.37 support hold = potential 8–13% rebound to $1.60. Failure = possible move to $1.00.
4-Pair Technical Summary Table
| Pair | Price | Trend (D) | Weekly RSI | Key Support | Key Resistance | Candle Pattern | Long Entry | Short Entry | SL (Long) | TP1 (Long) | Weekly Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | $65,884 | Bearish | 28 | $62,000 | $68,800 | Bearish Pennant | $63,500–65K | $67,500–68.8K | $61,000 | $68,800 | Cautious Long |
| ETH/USD | $1,927 | Bearish | 25 | $1,826 | $2,050 | Falling Wedge | $1,826–1,900 | $2,050–2,100 | $1,680 | $2,050 | Long Bias |
| SOL/USD | $88.28 | Bearish | 24 | $80–$85 | $91.55 | Oversold Bounce | $83–$86 | $91.55–95 | $78.50 | $91.55 | Neutral |
| XRP/USD | $1.42 | Bearish | 30 | $1.37 | $1.60 | Distribution | $1.35–1.40 | $1.50–1.60 | $1.28 | $1.60 | Bearish |
Trader’s FAQ — February 28, 2026
The most important questions traders are asking this week, answered with direct, data-backed responses.
The evidence is genuinely mixed, which is why even institutional analysts disagree. Bears argue: Bitcoin has lost 50% from its October 2025 peak of $125K, broken below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, and ETFs have flipped to net sellers — a structural demand reversal. The downtrend channel is intact and no single catalyst signals a trend change. Bulls argue: The weekly RSI is at 28, approaching the lowest levels seen in the 2022 bear market bottom (RSI ~22). Long-term holders are withdrawing from exchanges, not selling. Funding rates are compressed/negative, meaning there are few leveraged longs left to flush. Historically, Fear & Greed at 11 (Extreme Fear) has marked accumulation zones. On balance, this looks like deep-cycle deleveraging rather than a structural collapse — but risk management is paramount. Reduce position sizes, focus on levels rather than predictions.
US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, March 6 is the single most important event of the week. The January print was a soft 130K (well below the 150K consensus), and if February produces another weak number — particularly below 140K — futures markets will meaningfully advance the probability of a Fed rate cut, which is historically bullish for risk assets including crypto. A strong jobs number (>200K) reinforces the “higher for longer” narrative and would weigh on crypto. The ECB rate decision on Thursday is the second-most-important event — an expected 15bp cut would inject global liquidity sentiment support. Monitor tariff headlines daily as these remain the dominant macro wildcard.
XRP’s underperformance is multifaceted. First, it saw disproportionately large gains during the October 2025 bull run (driven by Ripple’s regulatory victories and cross-border payment adoption narratives), meaning there is more distributional overhead to absorb. Second, selling has intensified near the 20-day EMA at $1.931, which acted as a strong rejection zone. Third, altcoins with active development momentum (Ethereum’s roadmap, Solana’s scalability) have attracted rotation flows this week. The positive news — Ripple’s $5M investment in t54 Labs on February 25 and XRP’s 8% surge on partnership news — failed to sustain buying pressure, suggesting the broader market structure is dominant. XRP is 1.8× more volatile than Bitcoin, so any macro improvement could produce outsized gains from these levels. The $1.37 support level is the immediate defense line for bulls.
The ETH falling wedge setup is one of the highest-conviction technical setups in the current market — but it carries meaningful risk. Falling wedges are historically bullish reversal patterns, and when combined with ETH’s weekly RSI at 25 (deep oversold), negative funding rates (a squeeze higher is likely building), and strong fundamental underpinning ($54B DeFi TVL, active development roadmap), the asymmetric risk-reward tilts to the upside. The ECB rate cut on Thursday (expected) could serve as an external macro trigger. However, the critical caveat is this: if BTC breaks below $62,000 on a daily close basis, all altcoin setups become invalid in the short term. We’d suggest sizing the ETH long position at 50–70% of normal size until BTC shows stabilization above $65,000.
Trump’s February 23 tariff announcement (15% global tariff hike) has functioned as a direct negative catalyst for crypto in three ways. First, it tightens global financial conditions — Bitcoin “feels” liquidity tightening first. Second, it created immediate risk-off behavior as equity markets (particularly tech) sold off sharply, dragging crypto lower through correlation. Third, it introduces sustained uncertainty, which suppresses institutional appetite for volatile assets. The silver lining: tariff rhetoric has historically been a negotiating tool, and any softening or exemptions could produce a sharp short-covering rally. The Deloitte weekly update notes that IEEPA tariff fears often exceed the actual economic impact, as companies absorb costs to maintain market share. Watch for bilateral trade deal news as a positive catalyst.
Almost certainly not yet — but it is an early signal worth monitoring. True altseasons typically require: (1) Bitcoin stabilizing and outperforming broad risk assets, (2) BTC dominance declining from elevated levels (currently 54.2%), (3) stablecoin dominance declining (capital flowing into alts), and (4) a fundamental narrative shift. Solana’s move appears driven by sector rotation (Layer-1 protocols outperforming) and technical oversold bouncing rather than new capital formation. CoinMarketCap AI flags the move as lacking a fundamental catalyst. That said, altcoins generally outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis — Cardano, Solana, ETH, and BNB all posted positive 7-day returns while XRP lagged. If this rotation persists into next week alongside macro catalysts, it could signal the early stages of a mini-altseason bounce. We are not there yet; risk management is key.
Focus on these five on-chain signals: (1) Bitcoin Exchange Reserves: continuing outflows signal long-term holders accumulating — bullish. Inflows would signal distribution — bearish. (2) Funding Rates: currently compressed/negative across ETH and SOL; Bitcoin funding has compressed. This means de-risking is via position closure, not aggressive shorting — meaning a squeeze higher is possible on any positive catalyst. (3) ETF Flows: the flip to net seller status in January/February was a structural negative. Any week where Bitcoin ETFs record net inflows would be a significant momentum shift. (4) USDC/USDT Supply: USDC circulation has surpassed $75 billion — stable or growing stablecoin supply means capital is parked and ready to redeploy. (5) Long-Term Holder Exchange Withdrawals: 20,000 BTC left exchanges in a single week in January 2026 — this is historically the strongest accumulation signal in on-chain analytics.
The Week Ahead: Staying Sharp in a Compressed Market
February 2026 tested traders in ways that few anticipated at the start of the year. From Bitcoin at $93K in early January to $65K today, the market has absorbed over $3–4B in liquidations, a historic tariff shock, geopolitical risk escalation, and an institutional demand reversal. And yet — the structure suggests this is deleveraging, not capitulation. The spring is being compressed.
The week of March 1–7 is a pivotal one. Four high-impact data points (China PMI, ECB decision, US ADP, and NFP Friday) will define whether crypto sees a relief rally or another leg lower. The asymmetry is building for patient, positioned traders. Weekly RSIs across all four majors are at historically low levels. Funding rates are compressed or negative. Long-term holders are accumulating on-chain. The catalyst is macro — and it arrives Friday.
Three Rules for Navigating This Market
The best traders in the room aren’t predicting the bottom — they’re managing risk, placing asymmetric bets, and waiting for the market to confirm before adding size. These three rules apply with special force right now.
