The Dow is in a short-term downtrend since its January all-time high near 50,100. The index has carved out a series of lower highs and is now trading below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The daily chart shows a clear descending channel pattern, with price currently hugging the lower bound around 48,800–49,000.

Friday’s bearish engulfing candle — where the session body completely overwhelmed the prior day’s range — is technically significant. The engulfing candle was accompanied by above-average volume, confirming institutional distribution rather than casual selling.

The primary catalyst remains the private credit contagion story (Market Financial Solutions collapse), with Apollo and Jefferies dragging the financial sector component of the DJIA notably lower. Until this credit risk narrative is fully absorbed or dismissed, financial heavyweights will continue to weigh on the index.

The monthly view is less alarming: February’s +0.2% gain keeps the long-term uptrend intact. A decisive break below the 200-day MA (~48,100) would be a material technical deterioration worth respecting.

The Nasdaq 100 is in a confirmed short-to-medium term downtrend. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged at approximately 25,500 and now form a formidable resistance cluster. Price is over 600 points below this dual-MA zone — a structurally bearish configuration that technical traders call a “ceiling of doom.”

The index has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, capped near 26,054 (high) and supported around 24,100. The triangle is compressing, and a directional resolution is overdue. Given the current bearish momentum and macro headwinds, the probability tilts toward a downside break of the triangle, targeting 23,000.

RSI at approximately 36 is in neutral-to-oversold territory. While this alone is not a buy signal, a close below RSI 30 alongside a break of 24,622 support would be the cleanest confirmation of accelerating bearish momentum. Conversely, a snapback above 25,131 on strong volume (supported by, say, a weak NFP triggering dovish pivots) would represent the first genuine bull signal in several weeks.

The iShares Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is down nearly 23% year-to-date — its trajectory is a warning sign for the broader Nasdaq that this is a structural shift, not just normal volatility.

The FTSE 100 is in a strong, unambiguous uptrend across all major timeframes. All 12 moving average signals on Investing.com’s technical dashboard are currently registering a “Buy” or “Strong Buy.” The index has broken decisively above the key 10,800 resistance level — the former ceiling of its daily up channel from December — and is now targeting the psychologically significant 11,000 level.

Elliott Wave analysis from market analysts points to the current rally being the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from mid-January lows. Wave 3 moves are characteristically the strongest and most sustained, which aligns with the FTSE’s exceptional +6.5% February performance.

The week’s standout candlestick formations include several bullish continuation candles with high closes and limited upper wicks — a characteristic of genuine institutional buying pressure. The Thursday close at 10,850 showed a Marubozu-style bullish candle, confirming buyers in full control.

One technical note of caution: RSI at 68.7 is approaching overbought territory at 70. A brief consolidation or shallow pullback to 10,800 support would be healthy and technically expected before a continuation toward 11,000. The pullback, if it materialises, is a buying opportunity, not a reversal signal.

Key sectoral drivers: Mining stocks (Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Glencore), International Airlines Group, Rightmove (+6% on strong revenues + buyback), and energy majors continue to provide the index’s backbone. UK-listed banks, however, face headwinds from the private credit risk contagion narrative.