Fading Fed Hike Bets Hold Gold at 4,180 as Russia Sanctions Waiver Caps WTI Near $100 | Technical Analysis – Commodities Report | 19-10-2026
Commodities Today | Monday 19 October 2026
Fading Fed Hike Bets Hold Gold at 4,180 as Russia Sanctions Waiver Caps WTI Near $100
Market Overview
Gold held near 4,179.67 at the start of the week as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on October at Friday’s IMF meetings, and the odds of a hike on 27–28 October slipped to about 16%, with markets still pricing a December increase. The US 10-year yield fell about 12.7 basis points to 5.06% as fears over AI funding sent investors into bonds. In energy, WTI held near 100.36 after seven straight gains, as Washington’s waiver of Russian energy sanctions offset three tankers damaged near the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters via Investing.com). China’s third-quarter GDP beat forecasts at 4.5%, a positive for copper. The next catalysts are Canadian inflation at 12:30 GMT, the US crude inventory report on Wednesday and gas storage on Thursday. We read the session as headline-driven, with precious metals bid on lower yields and energy two-way.
Key highlights
- Fed: CME FedWatch puts about 83.9% odds on no change in October, while a December hike sits near 85–92% after September consumer prices hit 3.7%.
- Gold and silver: Lower yields and AI-credit stress lifted both metals; gold has a record high of 5,597.23 from 29 January, about 25% above today’s level.
- Oil: Brent eased 1.3% to about 108.43 after touching 110 on Friday; Kpler says Gulf crude flows fell to about 8.5 million barrels per day from above 20 million a week earlier.
- China: Third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year against 4.4% expected, with retail sales at 1.1% against 0.5% expected.
- Natural gas: The EIA reported a 67 Bcf storage build against 74 Bcf expected, but mild weather and output of 113.9 Bcf/d pushed November futures lower.
- Wheat: US export commitments are about 33% behind last year, and funds hold a net short of roughly 33,000 Chicago contracts.
What’s Moving Commodities Today
Warsh stays silent and bond yields tumble
Warsh declined to pre-judge the October meeting in Bangkok, and global yields fell on AI-growth worries. The US 10-year dropped to 5.06%, which lifted gold above 4,175 and silver above 57.50 despite a hot September producer price reading.
Trump waives Russia sanctions, offsetting the Hormuz tanker blast
A Friday order paused Graham Act sanctions and tariffs on Russia, and Secretary of State Rubio said the effect will be assessed over up to 60 days. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported a tanker mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz, which could not be verified.
China growth beats and mine strikes tighten supply
China’s third-quarter growth quickened to 4.5% and September industrial output rose 5.5%. Workers at Chile’s Centinela mine have been on strike since 7 October, and a landslide at Codelco’s El Teniente halted part of its operation.
Key Drivers Today
Five readings and events that set direction for commodities. All times are GMT.
- US 10-year yield
- 5.06%
- Down 12.7 bp on AI fears
- Brent crude
- ~108.43
- Russia waiver, Hormuz risk
- Canada CPI
- Sep, y/y
- August was 3.0%
- EIA crude inventories
- Weekly
- API estimate Tue 20:30 GMT
- EIA gas storage
- Weekly
- Last build 67 Bcf
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked by conviction and valid for today’s session. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 4,190.00 | 4,236.00 | 4,110.00 | 4,050.00 | 1.7 / 3.0 | Medium |
| Silver | Short | 58.80 | 60.00 | 56.00 | 54.80 | 2.3 / 3.3 | Medium |
| Copper | Long | 6.560 | 6.470 | 6.700 | 6.840 | 1.6 / 3.1 | Medium |
| Natural Gas | Short | 3.120 | 3.200 | 2.990 | 2.900 | 1.6 / 2.8 | Medium |
| Crude Oil | Long | 98.00 | 95.00 | 102.50 | 106.00 | 1.5 / 2.7 | Low |
| Wheat | Long | 660.00 | 649.00 | 680.00 | 697.00 | 1.8 / 3.4 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices: gold and silver are spot per ounce, copper is COMEX per pound, natural gas is NYMEX per mmBtu, crude oil is WTI per barrel and wheat is CBOT cents per bushel. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Oil Supply Scenario Analysis
Oil is the swing factor for inflation expectations, Fed pricing and gold. The US crude inventory report at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday is the next scheduled test.
Supply shock: Hormuz disruption deepens
More tanker attacks or Houthi strikes would extend the loss of Gulf flows, lift oil and revive the inflation story that keeps a December Fed hike in play.
- WTI crude102.50, then 106.00
- Gold4,110, then 4,050
- Fed December hike pricingRises
Supply relief: waiver lifts Russian exports
A calm Gulf and more Russian diesel and crude would cap prices, ease inflation worries and let falling yields keep supporting precious metals.
- WTI crude97.00, then 92.73
- Gold4,236, then 4,330
- Fed December hike pricingFades
Gold | Spot gold in US dollars per ounce
Gold Analysis: Channel Top Near 4,190 Meets Fading Fed Hike Bets
4,179.67 +14.50 (+0.35%) day Day range 4,155.83–4,187.68
Outlook: Bias is mildly lower while 4,200 caps rallies. Falling Treasury yields and an easing October hike risk support the metal, but December hike odds near 85–92% and a hotter inflation backdrop limit the upside.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 4,000.00
- Support 1
- 4,070.00
- Resistance 1
- 4,200.00
- Resistance 2
- 4,330.00
- Price sits on the upper edge of the channel and just below the 4,183.89 average; the 4,246.73 and 4,326.73 averages slope lower above it, and the 14 October weekly low near 4,073 marks the first floor.
- RSI 46.41 sits above its signal line at 41.62 but below 50, a weak recovery rather than a trend change.
Setup: Short at 4,190.00, stop 4,236.00, targets 4,110.00 and 4,050.00. Reward:risk 1.7 / 3.0, medium conviction.
Silver | Spot silver in US dollars per ounce
Silver Analysis: Bounce Meets Falling Channel as RSI Nears 40
57.69 +0.72 (+1.26%) day Day range 56.81–57.75
Outlook: Bias stays lower while 60.64 holds. Falling hike bets and AI-credit stress lifted silver to about 57.60, but a costlier-borrowing backdrop weighs on industrial demand and the channel still points down.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 54.50
- Support 1
- 55.50
- Resistance 1
- 60.64
- Resistance 2
- 63.79
- The rebound from the mid-October low near 55.50 has reached the middle of the channel; the 60.64 average and the channel top near 63 are the next hurdles.
- RSI 39.77 is level with its signal line at 39.51 and close to oversold, which favours a bounce but not yet a reversal.
Setup: Short at 58.80, stop 60.00, targets 56.00 and 54.80. Reward:risk 2.3 / 3.3, medium conviction.
Copper | COMEX copper futures, US dollars per pound
Copper Analysis: Rising Channel Floor Near 6.57 Tests Buyers
6.576 +0.016 (+0.24%) day Day range 6.557–6.578
Outlook: Bias is higher while the channel floor holds. Strong Chinese growth data, mine strikes and tight nearby supply support prices, while US tariff timing and record COMEX stocks keep rallies measured.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6.430
- Support 1
- 6.500
- Resistance 1
- 6.700
- Resistance 2
- 6.840
- Price sits between the slower 6.5377 average and the 6.6755 and 6.7112 averages on the CFD chart, which converts to roughly 6.43, 6.57 and 6.60 on COMEX futures; the channel floor and slow average converge near 6.56.
- RSI 50.07 is level with its signal line at 50.03, a neutral reading that leaves direction to the channel edge.
Setup: Long at 6.560, stop 6.470, targets 6.700 and 6.840. Reward:risk 1.6 / 3.1, medium conviction.
Natural Gas | NYMEX November futures, US dollars per mmBtu
Natural Gas Analysis: Mild Weather Pushes Price Onto the Channel Floor
3.079 −0.037 (−1.19%) day Day range 3.029–3.090
Outlook: Bias is lower while 3.124 caps rebounds. Above-normal temperatures through month-end and record-high output outweigh a 67 Bcf storage build that came in below forecast.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2.900
- Support 1
- 2.997
- Resistance 1
- 3.124
- Resistance 2
- 3.300
- The pair of averages at 2.997 and 2.954 sit just under price; a close below them would expose the 2.912–2.896 zone flagged by analysts.
- RSI 50.09 has dropped under its signal line at 57.04, a sign momentum has turned down from the October high near 3.30.
Setup: Short at 3.120, stop 3.200, targets 2.990 and 2.900. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.8, medium conviction.
Crude Oil | WTI in US dollars per barrel
Crude Oil Analysis: Russia Waiver Trims the Rally, Rising Support Near 91
100.36 +1.34 (+1.35%) day
Outlook: Bias is two-way and headline-driven. WTI held near 100 after seven straight gains as the US waiver of Russia sanctions offset tanker attacks near Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure, which keep dips shallow.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 92.73
- Support 1
- 97.00
- Resistance 1
- 104.00
- Resistance 2
- 107.00
- The rising line from the July low and the 92.73 and 91.03 averages stack up as support near 91–93, while the falling line from the March high sits near 104–105.
- All three averages (92.73, 91.03 and 85.76) slope up beneath price; RSI 58.65 is above its signal line at 52.22, a constructive but not stretched reading.
Setup: Long at 98.00, stop 95.00, targets 102.50 and 106.00. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.7, low conviction.
Wheat | CBOT December futures, US cents per bushel
Wheat Analysis: Channel Floor Near 657 Holds While Fundamentals Stay Weak
662.10 +2.35 (+0.36%) day Day range 657.75–662.13
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower. Price rests on a rising channel floor, but slow exports, a 740 million bushel USDA stocks forecast and a growing fund short cap rallies despite Black Sea disruption.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 640.40
- Support 1
- 650.00
- Resistance 1
- 680.20
- Resistance 2
- 696.80
- On the CFD chart price sits just above the 669.8 average and under the 692.5 and 709.1 averages; converted to CBOT terms these are roughly 657.5, 680.2 and 696.8.
- RSI 39.98 is under its signal line at 41.69, a weak reading that argues for confirmation before buying.
Setup: Long at 660.00, stop 649.00, targets 680.00 and 697.00. Reward:risk 1.8 / 3.4, low conviction.
Conclusion
Falling yields and fading October hike bets support precious metals, while oil trades two ways between the Russia waiver and Gulf shipping risk. We prefer selling rallies in gold, silver and natural gas, and buying support in copper, with oil and wheat held at low conviction. Canadian inflation at 12:30 GMT is the nearest risk, followed by the API report at 20:30 GMT on Tuesday, EIA crude at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday, EIA gas storage at 14:30 GMT on Thursday and the 27–28 October Fed meeting. A daily close above 4,200 would challenge the bearish gold view.
Trade gold, silver, oil, natural gas and other commodities with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does gold rise when Fed hike odds fall?
Gold pays no interest, so lower expected rates and falling bond yields reduce the cost of holding it. A softer dollar adds to the effect, though hot inflation data can reverse the move quickly.
How does a Russia sanctions waiver affect oil prices?
It raises the chance that more Russian crude and diesel reaches world markets, which adds supply and tends to cap prices. Traders weigh that against Gulf shipping disruption, so reactions are often small and headline-driven.
What does backwardation in copper mean?
Backwardation means metal for immediate delivery costs more than metal for later delivery. It signals tight nearby supply, often because buyers need physical copper now, and it can support prices.
Why can natural gas fall when storage builds are small?
Prices respond to expected demand and production as well as storage. Mild weather lowers heating demand and record output adds supply, so a smaller-than-expected build can still be outweighed.
