. Daily FX Analysis - EUR/USD , GBP/USD, NZD/USD climbs, AUD/USD hovers.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD , GBP/USD, NZD/USD climbs, AUD/USD hovers.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD , GBP/USD, NZD/USD climbs, AUD/USD hovers.

09 Jan 2024

Introduction

Amid cautious markets, EUR/USD grapples near 1.0950 as the US Dollar attempts a tepid recovery. Uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook prompts hesitancy, with mid-tier US data and Fedspeak awaited. Meanwhile, GBP/USD faces downward pressure near 1.2700 amid a resurgent US Dollar and a challenging risk sentiment. NZD/USD, buoyed by a risk-on mood, climbs to 0.6260, with Fed’s Bostic foreseeing rate cuts. The Australian Dollar hovers around a psychological level as the US Dollar stabilizes, while positive economic data from Australia provides support. Eyes are on upcoming key data releases for further market direction.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD struggles near 1.0950 amid cautious markets.

EUR/USD is trading close to 1.0950, struggling in European trading on Tuesday. The US Dollar attempts to tepid recovery, as markets turn cautious amid a lack of clarity on the Fed’s policy outlook. Mid-tier US data and Fedspeak awaited. EUR/USD is having a difficult time finding direction for the second consecutive day on Tuesday and extending its consolidation near 1.0950. November Goods Trade Balance and NFIB Business Optimism Index will be featured in the US economic docket but investors are unlikely to take large positions based on these figures, especially while waiting for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that will be published on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.26 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.57 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.11 R2 : 1.12
  • S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.0937 | Take Profit : 1.1038 | Stop Loss : 1.0887

GBP/USD

GBP/USD falls toward 1.2700 as US Dollar rebounds.

GBP/USD is heading back toward 1.2700, having failed to sustain above 1.2750 in early Europe on Tuesday. A souring market mood and renewed US Dollar demand are weighing on the pair. Risk sentiment and the Fed expectations will continue to lead the way. GBP/USD closed the previous week virtually unchanged on the back of a decisive recovery seen in the late American session on Friday. The pair holds steady at around 1.2700 but the negative shift seen in risk sentiment could make it difficult for Pound Sterling to find demand. A negative opening in Wall Street’s main indexes, followed by an extended slide, could provide a boost to the USD and weigh on GBP/USD.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.68 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 56.53 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.29
  • S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.25

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.2711 | Take Profit : 1.2826 | Stop Loss : 1.2650

NZD/USD

NZD/USD improves to near 0.6260, risk-on sentiment after Fed’s Bostic comments.

NZD/USD continues its winning streak on a risk-on-market mood. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expects 50 bps rate cuts by the end of 2024. NZD/USD moves on an upward trajectory, extending gains for the third successive session. The NZD/USD pair trades higher near 0.6260 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair rebounded from a three-week low at 0.6181 on Friday after mixed economic data from the United States (US) Traders await the Kiwi Building Permits on Thursday to gain fresh cues on New Zealand’s economic landscape.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.62 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.15 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.28 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.64 R2 : 0.64
  • S1 : 0.61 S2 : 0.61

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 0.6213 | Take Profit : 0.6305 | Stop Loss : 0.6158

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar hovers near a psychological level amid stable US Dollar, Aussie CPI eyed.

Australian Dollar loses ground after recent gains as the US Dollar improves. Australian Retail Sales increased to 2.0% from the previous 0.2% decline. The Australian Dollar (AUD) trims its intraday gains as the US Dollar attempts to recover its recent losses on Tuesday. However, the AUD/USD pair seems to be benefiting from improved risk appetite, driven in part by comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) members speculating about potential interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Additionally, the upbeat economic data from Australia could reinforce the strength of the Aussie Dollar (AUD). Traders will observe the Monthly Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday to gain more impetus on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate trajectory

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.12 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 29.86 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.69 R2 : 0.69
  • S1 : 0.66 S2 : 0.65

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 0.6681 | Take Profit : 0.6775 | Stop Loss : 0.6623

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP up 0.08% to 0.8596. The AUD/USD down 0.28% to 0.6696. The USD/CAD up 0.08% at 1.3359. USD/JPY down 0.07% at 144.10. EUR/JPY down 0.07% at 157.82, The USD/CNY up 0.06% at 7.1586, AUD/SEK down 0.24% at 6.8594, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) Actual –2.9%, Forecast –2.3%, Previous –2.5% at 05:00. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Actual 2.0%, Forecast –1.2%, Previous -0.2% at 15:30. (EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Actual –0.7%, Forecast 0.2%, Previous –0.4% at 12:30. (CAD) Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) Forecast –1.7%, Previous 2.3% at 19:00.