. Daily FX Analysis - GBP up, EUR down, USD rebounds.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP up, EUR down, USD rebounds.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP up, EUR down, USD rebounds.

13 Feb 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2600, propelled by favorable UK labor market data, including a drop in the ILO Unemployment Rate to 3.8%. While the market maintains an optimistic stance, attention shifts to the US inflation report, anticipating potential impacts on the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Meanwhile, EUR/USD faces a bearish outlook, hovering below key levels, with a focus on US CPI data. USD/CAD breaks a five-day decline on market caution ahead of US inflation data, and NZD/USD declines on lower Kiwi Inflation Expectations in Q1.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD holds comfortably above 1.2600 after UK labor market data.

GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2650 in the European morning on Tuesday. The data from the UK showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 3.8% in December, while the annual wage inflation softened to 6.2% from 6.7%. An upbeat market mood is sponsoring a leg-up on the major, though it remains within familiar levels. Market participants are eyeing an inflation report in the United States (US) which is expected to fuel speculations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Regarding monetary policy, the BoE is expected to slash rates by 80 basis points through 2024, less than the 110 bps at the beginning of the last week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2655 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2667 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.2925 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 44.3336 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2763 R2 : 1.2807
  • S1 : 1.2618 S2 : 1.2574

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2648 | Take Profit: 1.2719 | Stop Loss: 1.2605

EUR/USD

EUR/USD The crucial upside barrier is located at the 1.0800-1.0805 region, where US CPI data looms.

EUR/USD edges lower to 1.0766 on renewed US Dollar demand. The bearish outlook of the pair remains intact below the key EMA; the RSI indicator lies below the 50-midlines. The key resistance level will emerge at the 1.0800–1.0805 zone; the first support level is seen near 1.0753. The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note for the second consecutive day during the early European session on Tuesday. Markets turn to a cautious mood ahead of the US key data. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due later on Tuesday. The softer US inflation data could potentially boost the Fed’s confidence that inflation will return to its target and weigh on the US Dollar (USD). At press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0766, losing 0.07% on the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0788 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0821 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0851 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0784 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0824 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0892 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.2138 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 25.7257 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.0758 | Take Profit: 1.0689 | Stop Loss: 1.0804

USD/CAD

USD/CAD snaps a five-day losing streak on market caution, rebounds to near 1.3460.

USD/CAD moves higher as the market adopts a cautious stance ahead of inflation data from the United States. The headline US Inflation is expected to show an easing to 2.9% in January from 3.4% prior. An upbeat WTI price could provide support for the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD breaks a five-day declining trend as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, with traders adopting a cautious stance ahead of the release of United States (US) inflation data scheduled for Tuesday. During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair trades higher around 1.3460.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3458 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3448 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.3456 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3460 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.3459 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.3412 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.6697 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 52.2678 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3521 R2 : 1.3595
  • S1 : 1.3282 S2 : 1.3208

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.3437 | Take Profit: 1.3356 | Stop Loss: 1.3492

NZD/USD

NZD/USD loses ground after lower Kiwi Inflation Expectations, edges lower to near 0.6110.

NZD/USD extends its losses after the release of Inflation Expectations from New Zealand.RBNZ Inflation Expectations (Q1) rose by 2.5%, down from the previous reading of 2.7%. The US Dollar gains ground ahead of the scheduled release of the US Inflation data. NZD/USD continues to decline for the second consecutive session, reaching near 0.6110 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces pressure against the US Dollar (USD), partly due to lower Kiwi inflation expectations in the first quarter. RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ) increased by 2.5%, down from the previous reading of 2.7%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6113 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6125 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6134 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6106 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6107 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6183 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.2939 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 65.6304 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6268 R2 : 0.6330
  • S1 : 0.6067 S2 : 0.6005

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6088 | Take Profit: 0.6024 | Stop Loss: 0.6138

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP down 0.19% to 0.8513. The AUD/USD down 0.21% to 0.6516. The USD/CHF is up 0.06% at 0.8809. USD/JPY up 0.21% at 149.64. AUD/NZD is up 0.25% at 1.0675, The USD/CNY is down 0.01% at 7.1936, and AUD/SEK is up 0.05% at 6.7954, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) NAB Business Confidence (Jan) Actual 1, Previous –1 at 06:00. (GBP) Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) Actual 5.8%, Forecast 5.6%, Previous 6.5% at 12:30. (USD) CPI (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.3% at 19:00. (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 19:00.