Nervous Excitement Grips Traders as US Job Data Sparks Market Anticipation.

In anticipation of important job numbers later today, investors meticulously analyzed changes in treasury yields, economic data, and profit reports yesterday. The day resulted in a mixed performance for US stock markets. The S&P experienced a slight decline of 0.25%, the Nasdaq, on the other hand, saw a modest rise of 0.08%, while the Dow ended the day lower by 0.19%. Sterling faced downward pressure after the Bank of England announced a 25bps raise, while the currency market had a relatively calm day, trading in narrow ranges but at the top of recent USD levels. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note traded as high as 4.198% throughout the session. After the market closed, Amazon shares soared as it anticipated substantially greater third-quarter revenues than expected. Meanwhile, Apple’s shares fell due to weaker iPhone sales.

Important US Job Data Today

Traders are keeping a close eye on the prestigious release for the financial markets today. Investors have long been focused on non-farm payrolls, now known as employment change, which has given many traders nightmares when unexpected prints took markets on rollercoaster rides they didn’t really need on a late Friday trading session. The Federal Reserve has stated that they are closely monitoring the data as they approach the end of their tightening cycle, adding even more significance to today’s event. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, and the headline number is projected to climb by 205K. However, if one of these expectations is significantly off, traders may find themselves getting back on the rollercoaster, whether they want to or not!

What happened in the Asia Session?

During the Board meeting in August, the potential for further tightening of monetary policy was considered. Nevertheless, it was ultimately concluded that keeping rates unchanged was the better course of action, considering the severe tightening of policy that has already occurred. Therefore, we might witness an increase in interest rates as the year draws to a close, and currency pairs like AUD/USD could eventually experience bullish momentum.

What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?

The most important news event today will be the Non-Farm Employment Change in the United States. This is expected to create another exceptionally volatile session for both currencies and gold prices.

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

What can we expect from AUD today?

The likelihood of further monetary policy tightening was raised during the Board’s August meeting. However, due to the severe tightening of policy that has already occurred, it was eventually concluded that holding rates stable was a more suitable course of action. As a result, interest rates may be raised before the end of the year, and currency pairs such as the AUD/USD may gain bullish momentum in the future.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive meeting.
• Inflation in Australia has passed its peak and is trending lower but needs to return to the target range.
• Further tightening of monetary policy may be necessary.
• Next meeting on 5 September 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Retail Sales

What can we expect from EUR today?

Retail sales data has indicated moderate weakening over the last two months, with the latest projection showing a 0.3% MoM increase. If the actual reading is greater than expected, EUR may rise; if the actual reading is lower than expected, EUR may decrease.

Central Bank Notes:

• The ECB raised the three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
• Economic growth projections have been slightly lowered.
• The Governing Council will ensure interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to achieve the inflation target and keep them at those levels as long as needed.
• Rate decisions will be data-dependent, considering inflation outlook, economic data, underlying inflation dynamics, and monetary policy transmission strength.
• Next meeting on 14 September 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Non-Farm Employment Change (12:30 pm GMT) Unemployment Rate (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

With Canada reporting its Employment Change at the same time as the US, we can expect this pair to be volatile during this timeframe. We should also pay special attention to the key levels to see how they react before the news release. CAD pairs, particularly USD/CAD, should be attentively tracked throughout this period.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada increased its target for the overnight rate to 4.75%.
• Canada’s economy was more substantial than expected in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP growth of 3.1%.
• The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease to around 3.0% in the summer, but concerns have increased about inflation staying above the 2.0% target.
• Next meeting on 6 September 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias Medium Bullish

Global Markets:

Asian Stock Markets: Nikkei is up 0.10%, Shanghai Composite is up 0.23%, Hang Seng is up 0.61%, and ASX is up 0.19%.

European Equities: DAX futures are up 0.50%, CAC 40 is up 0.68%, and FTSE is up 0.33%.

US Stock Market: Dow Jones is down 0.19%, S&P 500 is down 0.25%, Nasdaq 100 is down 0.10%.

Commodities: Gold at $1936.73 (+0.16%), Silver at $23.55 (-0.62%), Brent Oil at $85.42 (+0.32%), WTI Oil at $81.83 (+0.33%).

News & Data:

• (AUD) RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 07:00
• (EUR) Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.0% at 14:30
• (CAD) Employment Change (Jul) Forecast 21.1K, Previous 59.9K at 18:00
• (USD) Unemployment Rate (Jul) Forecast 3.6%, Previous 3.6% at 18:00
• (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) Forecast 200K, Previous 209K at 18:00
• (USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 18:00
• (CAD) Ivey PMI (Jul) Forecast 52.7, Previous 50.2 at 19:30

Expert Analysis: Forex and Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations

GBPUSD

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2709, suggesting a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2772, reinforcing a bearish indication.
• EMA 50: With a value of 1.2822, the 50-day EMA aligns with a sell recommendation.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2699, indicating a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2787, supporting a bearish stance.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2893, signifying a sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 36.42, suggesting a negative signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2761.
• Support: The support level is observed at 1.2679.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a bearish outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2640
• Take Profit: 1.2538
• Stop Loss: 1.2730

EURUSD

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.0945, indicating a bearish signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 1.0984, signaling a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1.1021, suggesting a bearish indication.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1.0939, reinforcing the buy recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 1.0983, the 20-day SMA also supports a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 1.1099, affirming a sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 37.24, signifying a negative signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1.0971.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1.0917.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of EURUSD points towards a bearish sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.0900
• Take Profit: 1.0824
• Stop Loss: 1.0967

AUDUSD

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 0.6558, indicating a bearish signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 0.6619, signaling a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 0.6677, suggesting a bearish indication.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 0.6548, reinforcing the buy recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 0.6633, the 20-day SMA also supports a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 0.6729, affirming a sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 36.75, signifying a bearish signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 0.6584.
• Support: The support level is identified at 0.6552.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of AUDUSD points towards a bearish sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 0.6525
• Take Profit: 0.6471
• Stop Loss: 0.6573

USDJPY

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 142.70, indicating a bullish signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 142.19, signaling a bullish sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 141.53, suggesting a bullish indication.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 142.79, reinforcing the sell recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 141.94, the 20-day SMA also supports a bullish sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 140.61, affirming a buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 56.78, signifying a bullish signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a negative stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 142.95.
• Support: The support level is identified at 142.04.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of USDJPY points towards a bullish sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 143.65
• Take Profit: 145.00
• Stop Loss: 142.77

HANG SENG

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 19592.33, indicating a bearish signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 19673.68, signaling a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 19492.25, suggesting a buy indication.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 19592.06, reinforcing the sell recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 19833.55, the 20-day SMA also supports a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 19439.18, affirming a buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 45.14, signifying a neutral signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a negative stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 19587.
• Support: The support level is identified at 19403.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of Hang Seng points towards a bearish sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 19293
• Take Profit: 18934
• Stop Loss: 19587

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 84.94, indicating a bullish signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 84.15, signaling a bullish sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 82.24, suggesting a buy indication.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 84.60, reinforcing the buy recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 80.39 the 20-day SMA also supports a bullish sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 82.04, affirming a buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 63.93, signifying a bullish signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 85.70.
• Support: The support level is identified at 84.40.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of Brent Crude Oil points towards a bullish sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a long position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 86.01
• Take Profit: 87.28
• Stop Loss: 85.06

SILVER

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 25.59, indicating a bearish signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 24.03, signaling a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 24.14, suggesting a sell indication.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 23.53, reinforcing the sell recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 24.15, the 20-day SMA also supports a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 24.51 affirming a sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 32.88, signifying a negative signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 23.69.
• Support: The support level is identified at 23.32.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of silver points towards a bearish sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 23.12
• Take Profit: 22.46
• Stop Loss: 23.63

ETHEREUM

Exponential Moving Average

• EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1837.07, indicating a bearish signal.
• EMA 20: The 20-day EMA is at 1859.90, signaling a bearish sentiment.
• EMA 50: The 50-day EMA currently sits at 1878.55, suggesting a sell indication.

Simple Moving Average

• SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1834.52, reinforcing the sell recommendation.
• SMA 20: With a value of 1869.29, the 20-day SMA also supports a bearish sentiment.
• SMA 50: The 50-day SMA registers at 1885.11, affirming a sell indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, stands at 37.16, signifying a negative signal.

Stochastic Oscillator

The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral stance.

Resistance And Support Levels

• Resistance: The resistance level is observed at 1849.95.
• Support: The support level is identified at 1827.26.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

In summary, the technical analysis of Ethereum points towards a bearish sentiment. Considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators, it seems favorable for traders to enter a short position.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1814.29
• Take Profit: 1777.01
• Stop Loss: 1841.85

Conclusion

In conclusion, this expert analysis provides valuable insights into the technical aspects of various forex currency pairs and cryptocurrencies. Traders can use these recommendations, along with other market information, to make well-informed trading decisions. As always, it is essential to carefully manage risk and use appropriate risk management strategies in trading activities.