Weekly Technical Analysis with Candlestick Charts – 21 August 2022
21 Aug 2022
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
CPI (YoY) (Jul), U.K.
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
17th AUGUST 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
GBPNZD is currently in the downward channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul), U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
17th AUGUST 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
USDSEK is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
CPI (YoY) (Jul), EUROZONE
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
18th AUGUST 2022 EUR and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
EURSEK is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
Gold Down 3% on Week as Mixed Data Raises Questions on Next Fed Move
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED:
Gold fell almost 3% for the week as mixed data raises questions on whether the fledgling U.S. recession will deepen or the dollar will pick up steam again as the Federal Reserve weighs more outsized rate hikes.
The benchmark gold futures contract on New York’s Comex, December, settled at $1,762.90 per ounce, down $8.30, or 0.5% on Friday. For the week, December gold lost almost $53, or 2.9%.
The spot price of bullion, more closely followed than futures by some traders, was at $1,747.68 by 15:40 ET (19:40 GMT), down 0.6% on the day and 3% on the week.
Until last week, a four-week run-up had given both gold futures on New York’s COMEX as well as the spot price of bullion a gain of about $120, or 7% from July 21 lows of around $1,680. The yellow metal peaked at almost $1,825 on Aug. 10.
This came on the backdrop of softening inflation and other data which signalled that the Fed might be done with super-sized rate hikes, a notion that pressured the dollar lower.
Since the start of this week though, the tide has turned, with U.S. weekly jobs numbers and manufacturing and other data coming in stronger.
GOLD is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.
Oil prices down 1.5% for the week on recession jitters
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED:
Oil prices steadied on Friday, but fell for the week on a stronger U.S. dollar and fears that an economic slowdown would weaken crude demand.
Brent crude futures settled at $96.72 a barrel, gaining 13 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended 27 cents higher at $90.77. Both benchmarks fell about 1.5% on the week.
Oil briefly jumped in volatile trade on comments by Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin who said the drive to raise rates also needs to be balanced with the impact rate hikes are having on the economy. But crude pared gains as investor concerns about upcoming rate hikes settled back in.
Strength in the U.S. dollar hit a five-week high, which also capped crude’s gains as it makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies.
Haitham Al Ghais, the new secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, told Reuters he was optimistic about oil demand into 2023.
OPEC is keen to ensure Russia remains part of the OPEC+ group, Al Ghais said ahead of a Sept. 5 meeting.
Supplies could tighten again when European buyers start seeking alternative supplies to replace Russian oil ahead of European Union sanctions that take effect from Dec. 5.
WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.
Bitcoin Falls 10% In Rout
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
BITCOIN
WHAT HAPPENED:
Bitcoin was trading at $21,069.3 by 17:57 (21:57 GMT) on the Investing.com Index on Friday, down 10.01% on the day. It was the largest one-day percentage loss since June 13.
The move downwards pushed Bitcoin’s market cap down to $406.2B, or 39.68% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its highest, Bitcoin’s market cap was $1,275.5B.
Bitcoin had traded in a range of $21,069.3 to $23,202.3 in the previous twenty-four hours.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has seen a drop in value, as it lost 11.99%. The volume of Bitcoin traded in the twenty-four hours to time of writing was $38.1B or 42.40% of the total volume of all cryptocurrencies. It has traded in a range of $21,069.3086 to $25,205.6719 in the past 7 days.
At its current price, Bitcoin is still down 69.46% from its all-time high of $68,990.63 set on November 10, 2021.
BTCUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
Composite PMI, U.K.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
23rd AUGUST 2022 GBP and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the both sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul), U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
24th AUGUST 2022 USD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug), GERMANY
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
25th AUGUST 2022 EUR and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jul), CANADA
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
22nd AUGUST 2022 CAD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) measures the change in selling prices for new homes. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug), JAPAN
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
25th AUGUST 2022 JPY and its subsequent pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
- NVIDIA (NVDA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 24th AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 0.7504 per share while revenue estimated 7.23B.
- Autodesk (ADSK) to announce its Quarterly Results on 24th AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 1.57 per share while revenue estimated 1.22B.
- Workday (WDAY) to announce its Quarterly Results on 25th AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 0.7943 per share while revenue estimated 1.52B.
- HP Inc (HPQ) to announce its Quarterly Results on 26th AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 1.05 per share while revenue estimated 15.90B.
- Marvell (MRVL) to announce its Quarterly Results on 26th AUGUST 2022, EPS estimated to 0.5642 per share while revenue estimated 1.52B.
TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
GOLD
GOLD is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.
SILVER
SILVER was trading in the up channel. There will be a downside in the coming week after the breakout downside.
WTI CRUDE OIL
WTI CRUDE OIL is trading in the down channel. The further downside will be seen in the coming week.
TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK
BTCUSD
BTCUSD is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.
LITECOIN
LITECOIN is trading in the up channel; an upside will be seen in the coming days.
TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK
EURUSD
EURUSD was trading in the up channel. There will be a downside in the coming week after the breakout downside.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD was trading in the down channel. There will be a downside in the coming week after the breakout downside.
USDJPY
USDJPY is trading in an up channel. The further upside will be seen in the coming week.
TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK
FTSE 100
FTSE 100 is trading in an up channel. The further upside will be seen in the coming week.
HANG SENG
HANG SENG is trading in the down channel; further downside will be seen in the coming days.
DATA WATCH
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