DAX and STOXX 600 Hit Record Highs as Dollar Slides Toward Worst Week Since April, Euro and Pound Rally, Gold Nears $4,190, Ethereum Surges 7% | Technical Analysis – European Session | 3 July 2026
DAX 40 and STOXX 600 Push to Fresh Record Highs as the Dollar Slides Toward Its Biggest Weekly Drop Since April, the Euro and Pound Both Rally, Gold Nears $4,190 and Ethereum Surges Roughly 7% in a Holiday-Thinned Session
European markets are extending Friday’s holiday-thinned rally into the session: the DAX 40 has printed a fresh record high near 25,747, and the pan-European STOXX 600 has notched its own all-time high near 651.5, as a broadly softer US Dollar, still reeling from Thursday’s weak payrolls miss, lifts the euro to a two-week high, sends the pound toward its best week in three months, and extends gains across gold, copper and crypto — all while US markets stay shut for Independence Day and traders keep one eye on yen-intervention risk.
The dollar’s slide has carried through from Thursday’s New York session into Friday’s European open. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has eased to around 100.8, putting it on track for a roughly 0.6–0.7% weekly decline, its steepest since early April. The move traces back directly to Thursday’s June US employment report, which showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 57,000 versus a 115,000 consensus, alongside sizeable downward revisions to April and May. Even though the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, traders have read the report as reducing the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase, and that repricing has continued to weigh on the dollar into Friday’s session even as US desks themselves remain closed for the holiday.
In FX, EUR/USD has climbed to around 1.1443, its strongest level in roughly two weeks and up close to 0.6% on the week, even though Wednesday’s Eurozone inflation data came in softer than expected, with headline inflation easing to 2.8% and core inflation slowing to 2.4%. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments at the Sintra Forum, noting that risks to euro-area growth and inflation have become more balanced, had briefly weighed on the single currency earlier in the week, but broad dollar weakness has dominated price action into Friday. GBP/USD has firmed to approximately 1.3365, putting sterling on course for a weekly gain of around 1.2%, its best performance in close to three months, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s own Sintra remarks doing little to derail the pound’s advance. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen remains a focal point after touching a fresh 40-year low near 162.8 per dollar on Thursday before staging a sharp reversal; Japan’s Finance Ministry has issued a fresh verbal warning on Friday, and traders remain alert to the possibility of direct intervention during this holiday-thinned window.
In commodities, Copper has pushed to around $6.18 a pound, up roughly 1.1–1.3% on the session, supported by the softer dollar and by Goldman Sachs commentary suggesting the broader Middle East-linked disruption could ultimately prove supportive for longer-run industrial-metals demand tied to electric vehicles, renewable energy and AI-driven electricity demand. Natural Gas is consolidating around $3.25, testing a cluster of Fibonacci retracement levels within a descending channel that has capped price action since late June, with the $3.245–$3.285 zone the key band to watch. On equities, the DAX 40 is up around 0.65–0.9% near 25,747, building on Thursday’s advance and pushing to a fresh all-time high, with Siemens the single biggest boost after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock, aided by the broad global risk-on tone following the payrolls miss and by continuing strength in German defence names as investors anticipate further military spending following Russia’s deadliest strike on Ukraine this year. The pan-European STOXX 600 has notched its own record high near 651.5, on track for its biggest weekly rise since mid-May. Germany’s 20-year Bund yield is easing back to around 3.30% from a near two-week high, tracking the pullback in US Treasury yields sparked by reduced Fed-hike expectations, even as the ECB’s own tightening bias from three weeks ago continues to provide some support to the long end. In crypto, Ethereum has surged roughly 7% to reclaim the $1,700 handle, a sharp reversal after weeks of underperformance against Bitcoin, while Litecoin has advanced around 2% to roughly $42.26, both riding the broader risk-on wave unleashed by Thursday’s dollar-negative jobs report.
European Session Headlines
The stories driving price action across FX, equities, metals, energy and crypto this session
European Session Economic Calendar — 3 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action across today’s holiday-thinned European session
| Time (CET) | Event | Actual / Expected | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸All Day | US Markets Closed — Independence Day (Observed) | Full closure of US equity, bond and futures markets | 🔴 CRITICAL | Thinner overall liquidity; Thursday’s payrolls-driven dollar weakness continues to set the tone |
| 🇺🇸Carried Over | June US Nonfarm Payrolls (Released Thursday) | +57,000 vs. +115,000 expected; unemployment 4.2% vs. 4.3% expected | 🔴 CRITICAL | Still the dominant driver of Friday’s dollar weakness and risk-on tone in Europe |
| 🇪🇺08:00 | German Industrial Production / Trade Balance (May) | Watched for confirmation of the recent manufacturing stabilisation | 🟢 MED | Secondary catalyst; DAX focus remains on the broader dollar-driven risk tone |
| 🇪🇺Ongoing | ECB Sintra Forum — Closing Commentary | Follow-through from Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey’s remarks earlier in the week | 🟢 MED | Balanced tone on inflation and growth risks; limited fresh policy signal expected |
| 🇯🇵Ongoing | Yen Intervention Watch | Japan’s Finance Ministry reiterates readiness to act after Thursday’s 40-year low | 🔴 CRITICAL | Elevated volatility risk for USD/JPY and G10 crosses through the session |
| 🇺🇸All Session | Dollar Index Weekly Close Watch | DXY tracking toward roughly 100.8, down about 0.6–0.7% on the week | 🔴 CRITICAL | On course for the largest weekly drop since early April; sets the tone into next week |
European Session Trade Ideas — 3 July 2026
Eight structured setups — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Copper, Natural Gas, DAX 40, Germany 20Y Bund Yield, Ethereum, Litecoin — with updated prices, levels, and full fundamental and technical analysis
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD has climbed to around 1.1443, its strongest level in roughly two weeks, as the euro rides broad dollar weakness that has followed through from Thursday’s weak US payrolls report into Friday’s European session. The move comes despite a softer Eurozone inflation backdrop earlier in the week, with headline inflation slowing to 2.8% and core inflation to 2.4% in June, both below expectations, and despite ECB President Christine Lagarde striking a more balanced tone on growth and inflation risks at the Sintra Forum. For now, the dollar-negative reaction to the US jobs miss is dominating over the euro’s own softer domestic data pulse.
Technical Outlook
EUR/USD has broken back above its recent consolidation range and is testing the upper end of a multi-week recovery channel. Resistance: 1.1480 (near-term psychological level) and 1.1530 (target, next extension on continued dollar weakness). Support: 1.1400 (preferred buy-dip level, near the base of Friday’s advance) and 1.1360 (stop, below Thursday’s pre-payrolls range). A decisive break above 1.1530 would open the way toward the 1.1580–1.1600 zone.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued Dollar Index follow-through into the weekly close; (2) any fresh ECB Sintra commentary from Lagarde or other Governing Council members; (3) German industrial production and trade data; (4) thinner holiday liquidity with US markets closed, which can exaggerate intraday moves; (5) any surprise developments on the yen-intervention front that could spill over into broader G10 FX.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Sterling has firmed to around 1.3365, putting GBP/USD on course for a weekly gain of roughly 1.2%, its best performance in close to three months. The move has been driven almost entirely by dollar weakness following Thursday’s soft US jobs report, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s own remarks at the ECB’s Sintra Forum doing little to slow the pound’s advance. Sterling has now cleared its recent range highs even as UK-specific data remains relatively light this week, underscoring how much of the current move is a broad-dollar story rather than a pound-specific one.
Technical Outlook
GBP/USD has broken out of its multi-week consolidation range and is now testing resistance last seen in the spring. Resistance: 1.3390 (near-term psychological ceiling) and 1.3440 (target, next extension on continued dollar softness). Support: 1.3310 (preferred buy-dip level, near the recent breakout point) and 1.3260 (stop, below this week’s range low). A sustained close above 1.3440 would open the way toward the 1.3540–1.3590 zone.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued Dollar Index weakness into the weekly close; (2) any further Bank of England commentary following Bailey’s Sintra remarks; (3) broader G10 risk sentiment given the holiday-thinned US session; (4) yen-intervention headlines, which can spill over into broader dollar positioning; (5) UK gilt yield direction relative to Treasuries.
Copper
Fundamental Backdrop
Copper has pushed to around $6.18 a pound, up roughly 1.1–1.3% on the session, as the softer dollar makes dollar-denominated metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. The metal remains up more than 23% from a year ago even after a roughly 5% pullback over the past month. Goldman Sachs has argued that the broader Middle East-linked disruption could ultimately prove supportive for copper given the metal’s structural role in electric-vehicle adoption, renewable-energy build-out, defence spending and AI-driven data-centre electricity demand, even as near-term price action stays choppy.
Technical Outlook
Copper is consolidating within a broader uptrend, holding well above its 52-week low near $4.33 and continuing to trade in a wide range beneath its record highs from earlier in the year. Resistance: $6.27 (near-term ceiling) and $6.37 (target, next extension on continued dollar softness). Support: $6.07 (preferred buy-dip level) and $5.97 (stop, below this week’s range low). A sustained close above $6.37 would open the way toward the $6.52–$6.62 zone near the 52-week high.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued Dollar Index direction into the weekly close; (2) any fresh commentary on Strait of Hormuz shipping and broader Middle East supply-chain risk; (3) Chinese demand signals given China’s roughly 50% share of global copper consumption; (4) LME and COMEX inventory data; (5) broader industrial-metals sentiment following Goldman’s constructive demand commentary.
Natural Gas
Fundamental Backdrop
Natural Gas is consolidating around $3.25 per MMBtu, having fallen sharply from a late-June swing high near $3.35 down toward $3.18 before stabilising. Mild spring and early-summer weather, robust Lower 48 production averaging around 110 billion cubic feet per day, and inventories tracking roughly 6% above normal have all kept a lid on prices even as LNG export flows to Gulf Coast terminals continue to climb. A brief heat-driven demand spike in late June has faded, leaving the market to digest a broadly well-supplied backdrop heading into the holiday weekend.
Technical Outlook
Natural Gas remains inside a descending channel that has dominated price action since late June, now testing a cluster of Fibonacci retracement levels from the $3.351 swing high down to the $3.179 low. Resistance: $3.265 (50% retracement, near-term ceiling) and $3.285–$3.29 (61.8% retracement, preferred sell-rally level, near the channel’s upper boundary). Support: $3.179 (near-term floor) and $3.04 (target, next extension on a confirmed breakdown). A sustained break above $3.29 would call the bearish channel structure into question.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) weekend and next-week weather forecasts across the Lower 48, given the sensitivity of power-sector demand to temperature swings; (2) LNG feedgas flow data at Gulf Coast export terminals; (3) next week’s EIA storage report; (4) hedge-fund positioning, given a recent build in net-short exposure that could fuel a short-covering bounce if prices break higher; (5) thinner holiday-weekend liquidity that can exaggerate intraday swings.
DAX 40
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s DAX 40 is up around 0.65–0.9% near 25,747, a fresh all-time high, extending Thursday’s advance as the global risk-on reaction to the weak US jobs report spreads into European equities. Reuters reports the DAX is leading gains among regional bourses, with Siemens up as much as 1.2% as the single biggest boost to the index after brokerage Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to “hold” from “reduce”. The pan-European STOXX 600 has also notched a record high near 651.5, on track for its biggest weekly rise since mid-May, with defence stocks up roughly 0.8% as investors anticipate more military spending after Russia bombarded Ukraine with its deadliest strike this year. The index had spent much of late June oscillating in a roughly 24,600–25,200 range as US-Iran talks stalled and the AI-driven rally lost momentum, but Wednesday’s below-consensus Eurozone inflation print, this week’s German economic reform package and continued strength in defence names such as Rheinmetall have helped the index break decisively higher into the new record.
Technical Outlook
The DAX 40 has broken above the upper end of its multi-week range and is now trading in fresh price discovery territory. Resistance: 25,870 (near-term psychological level) and 26,070 (target, next extension on continued follow-through). Support: 25,520 (preferred buy-dip level, near the prior range high) and 25,320 (stop, below this week’s breakout base). A sustained close above 26,070 would open the way toward the 26,470 zone.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued global risk sentiment given the holiday-thinned US session; (2) any follow-through from Germany’s newly unveiled economic reform package; (3) defence and industrial-sector momentum, given Rheinmetall, Siemens and peers’ recent strength amid the Russia-Ukraine escalation; (4) German industrial production and trade data; (5) broader STOXX 600 and US futures direction into next week’s reopening.
Germany 20Y Bund Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s long-dated Bund yields are easing back on Friday, tracking the pullback in US Treasury yields that followed Thursday’s much weaker than expected June payrolls report and the resulting reduction in near-term Fed rate-hike odds. The 10-year Bund yield had climbed to around 2.95%, a near two-week high, on Thursday as it tracked US yields higher ahead of the jobs data; the 20-year point on the curve, trading at a modest premium to the 10-year given the ECB’s own tightening bias from three weeks ago, is now giving back some of that move as global rate expectations reset lower.
Technical Outlook
The 20-year Bund yield remains within its broader multi-month range, holding above the lows reached earlier in the year even as it eases from this week’s high. Resistance: 3.38% (preferred sell-yield-rally level, near this week’s high) and 3.46% (stop, above the recent range ceiling). Support: 3.24% (near-term floor) and 3.18% (target, next extension on continued dovish Fed repricing). A sustained break below 3.18% would open the way toward the 3.05–3.10% zone.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued US Treasury yield direction despite the US holiday closure, via futures markets; (2) any fresh ECB Sintra commentary on the future policy path; (3) German fiscal and reform-package headlines; (4) broader Euro-area sovereign spread dynamics; (5) next week’s full reopening of US bond markets, which could see a catch-up move in either direction.
Ethereum
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum has surged roughly 7% to around $1,717, reclaiming the $1,700 handle in one of its sharpest single-session moves in weeks. The rally follows a difficult stretch for ETH, which had fallen well below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages amid broader crypto-market weakness and choppy spot Ether ETF flows. Today’s move looks catalyst-driven: the softer dollar and reduced near-term Fed hike odds following Thursday’s weak payrolls report are lifting risk appetite broadly, and Ethereum, which had underperformed Bitcoin through much of the recent drawdown, is seeing an outsized bounce as positioning unwinds.
Technical Outlook
Ethereum is attempting to reclaim its 20-day EMA after weeks of trading below it, with today’s sharp rally testing the next layer of technical resistance. Resistance: $1,754 (near-term ceiling) and $1,854 (target, next extension toward the 50-day EMA zone). Support: $1,624 (preferred buy-dip level, near the base of today’s breakout) and $1,544 (stop, below this week’s low). A sustained close above $1,854 would open the way toward the $2,000 psychological level.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) spot Ethereum ETF flow data over the coming sessions, given recent choppy performance; (2) broader Bitcoin and crypto-market direction, given high cross-asset correlation; (3) continued Dollar Index weakness; (4) any network or staking-related announcements; (5) thinner holiday-weekend liquidity, which can amplify both the current bounce and any reversal.
Litecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Litecoin has advanced roughly 2% to around $42.26, tracking the broader crypto-market rebound sparked by Thursday’s dollar-negative US jobs report. LTC remains down sharply from its 2026 highs near $76 and has traded within a narrow $50–$59 range for much of the first half of the year before the recent leg lower, but today’s bounce is consistent with the improvement in broader risk appetite. The recently launched Canary Litecoin ETF (LTCC) has begun to provide a modest, incremental source of institutional demand independent of retail exchange flows, even though assets under management remain small relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products.
Technical Outlook
Litecoin remains in a longer-term downtrend on higher timeframes, with both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages sloping lower, but today’s session shows early signs of stabilisation after a period of weak price action. Resistance: $43.06 (near-term ceiling) and $46.96 (target, next extension on continued broad crypto-market strength). Support: $40.46 (preferred buy-dip level) and $38.46 (stop, below this week’s low near $38.30). A sustained close above $46.96 would open the way toward the $50.96–$56.96 resistance band.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued Bitcoin and broader crypto-market direction, given Litecoin’s high correlation to the major coins; (2) Canary Litecoin ETF flow data as the product continues to build a track record; (3) Dollar Index direction into the weekly close; (4) on-chain activity and active-address trends; (5) thinner holiday-weekend liquidity, which can amplify moves in both directions.
European Session FAQ — 3 July 2026
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s European session price action
European Session Summary — Friday, 3 July 2026
Friday’s European session is unfolding as a straightforward extension of Thursday’s US-driven dollar weakness into a holiday-thinned trading window, with US markets closed for Independence Day leaving European desks to set the tone largely on their own. The Dollar Index has slipped to around 100.8, putting it on track for its biggest weekly drop since early April, after June’s US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, sharply reducing near-term Federal Reserve rate-hike odds. That dollar weakness has lifted risk assets broadly: the DAX 40 is up around 0.65–0.9% near 25,747, printing a fresh all-time high alongside a record pan-European STOXX 600 near 651.5, while EUR/USD has climbed to roughly 1.1443, a two-week high, and GBP/USD has firmed to about 1.3365-1.3370, on course for its best weekly gain in close to three months. Gold has extended its advance toward $4,185-4,190 and Copper has pushed above $6.18 a pound, both benefiting from the softer-dollar impulse, while Natural Gas continues to consolidate around $3.25 inside a descending channel that has capped price action since late June. Germany’s 20-year Bund yield is easing back to around 3.30% from a near two-week high, tracking the pullback in US Treasury yields, and in crypto, Ethereum has surged roughly 7% to reclaim $1,700 while Litecoin has advanced around 2% to roughly $42.26, both riding the broader risk-on wave. Adding a further layer of volatility risk, the Japanese yen remains a focal point after touching a 40-year low near 162.8 per dollar on Thursday before sharply reversing, with Japanese officials reiterating their readiness to intervene during this lower-liquidity window. Highest-conviction macro: buy DAX 40 dips toward 25,520, stop 25,320, target 26,070 — the global risk-on reaction to the payrolls miss should continue to support Frankfurt’s benchmark into the weekend, though thinner holiday liquidity and any surprise yen-intervention headline are genuine wildcards that could inject sharp, short-lived volatility.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1400, stop 1.1360, target 1.1530 — broad dollar weakness should continue to dominate over the euro’s own softer domestic inflation pulse in the near term, though a stabilisation in US data next week could see some of this move unwind. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3310, stop 1.3260, target 1.3440 — sterling’s rate-differential and dollar-weakness tailwinds both remain intact heading into the weekly close, though a large part of the move already reflects the payrolls surprise. Copper buy dips toward $6.07, stop $5.97, target $6.37 — the softer dollar and constructive long-run demand commentary both support a buy-the-dip approach, though near-term price action is likely to stay choppy within the broader range. Natural Gas sell rallies toward $3.29, stop $3.35, target $3.04 — the descending channel remains the dominant structure and well-supplied fundamentals continue to cap upside, though an excessively short hedge-fund positioning base is a genuine risk to this view. Germany 20Y Bund Yield sell yield rallies toward 3.38%, stop 3.46%, target 3.18% — reduced near-term Fed and ECB hike odds should continue to cap the long end, though persistent European fiscal dynamics limit how far yields can fall. Ethereum buy dips toward $1,624, stop $1,544, target $1,854 — today’s bounce reflects a genuine, if still fragile, improvement in risk appetite, though recent weak ETF flows argue for a disciplined stop. Litecoin buy dips toward $40.46, stop $38.46, target $46.96 — the broader crypto-market rebound and early-stage ETF-driven demand both provide support, though the longer-term trend on higher timeframes remains bearish. The decisive variable for the remainder of the session is whether today’s dollar weakness holds into the weekly close through the thinner holiday-eve liquidity, or whether a resumption of full US trading next week reverses part of the move. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s reaction may need to carry positioning through the weekend with reduced opportunity to adjust given the US market closure.
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