Iran War De-escalation Lifts Equities: S&P 500 Erases War Losses, Nasdaq 100 Breaks 0.786 Fib, FTSE 100 Holds 10,576 Pivot | Capital Street FX Index Report — April 14, 2026
Iran De-escalation Sparks Equity Rebound: S&P 500 Erases War Losses, Nasdaq 100 Breaks 0.786 Fib, FTSE 100 Anchors Above 0.236 Pivot as Q1 Earnings Season Begins
S&P 500 at 6,886.24 (+1.02%) closes at its highest level since before the Iran war began, fully erasing conflict-related losses as JPMorgan posts $16.5B Q1 profit. Nasdaq 100 at 25,383.72 (+1.06%) punches through the critical 0.786 Fibonacci at 25,127, led by Oracle (+9%) and software sector recovery. FTSE 100 at 10,592.48 (+0.09%) holds above the 0.236 Fibonacci at 10,576 with BoE on hold amid UK inflation at 4% — the highest across developed markets. Capital Street FX Index Research Desk · April 14, 2026
Geopolitical De-escalation Unlocks Risk Appetite; Earnings Season Adds Fundamental Fuel
Global equities staged a decisive recovery Monday, April 13 and continued the positive bias into Tuesday as diplomatic signals from Iran — following the collapse of formal peace talks — sparked a sharp reversal from session lows. President Trump confirmed Tehran had reached out to Washington hours after the US initiated a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets interpreted the overture as the first step toward a negotiated resolution, sending equities to their highest levels since the conflict began in late February 2026.
- 📈 S&P 500 closed at 6,886 on April 13 — fully erasing all losses incurred since the Iran war began, with the index turning nominally positive for 2026 (+0.05%)
- 💻 Nasdaq 100 surged through the 0.786 Fibonacci (25,127) driven by Oracle (+9%), Palantir (+3%), and broad software sector recovery from multi-year sentiment lows
- 🇬🇧 FTSE 100 edged up 0.09% to 10,592, holding the critical 0.236 Fibonacci at 10,576 — but constrained by BoE rate hold, UK inflation at 4% and growth downgrade to 0.7%
- 🏦 JPMorgan Q1 earnings beat: $16.5B profit (+13% YoY), $49.8B revenue (+10%); Wells Fargo missed NII forecasts; Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth projected at 12.6–13%
- 🛢️ Crude oil: Brent ~$99/bbl, WTI near $99/bbl; pulling back from ~$114 April peak as ceasefire optimism builds and blockade scope remains unclear
- ⚡ VIX fell to 18.63 (-2.56%) — reflecting easing geopolitical premium; US 10-yr yield at 4.29%; Gold at $4,767; USD/GBP at 1.35
Index Trade Setups for Today
Nasdaq 100 · NDX
Technical Picture
The Nasdaq 100 has completed a significant technical recovery, closing at 25,383.72 after punching through the critical 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 25,127.48 — drawn from the 26,175.07 high to the 22,681.57 Iran-war low. The index is now trading above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages for the first time since February 2026, with RSI rising to 63.40 (signal line: 46.44), confirming bullish momentum is building rather than overextended.
The recovery off the March 30 low at approximately 22,682 has been driven by a sustained 9-day winning streak in the Nasdaq Composite — the longest since December 2023. The “Death Cross” that formed in early April (50-day crossing below the 200-day) has been rapidly neutralised by price action, which traders should note eliminates the bearish signal. The key zone now is 25,100–25,200, which must hold as support on any pullback to maintain the bullish bias.
Upside targets from the Fibonacci grid: 0.618 at 24,840 was already cleared (now support). Next resistance is the 25,500–25,600 area (near-term), then 26,175 (Fib 1.0 / prior high). Bears would need a daily close back below 24,428 (0.5 Fib) to challenge the recovery thesis.
Fundamental Drivers
The single most important variable for the Nasdaq remains the trajectory of Iran-US diplomacy. Software stocks had experienced their worst sentiment in years, with hedge fund net exposure crashing from 7% to just 1.4% of total US net exposure since the war began. The recovery signals institutional re-engagement — a powerful fuel for further upside.
On the earnings front, the Information Technology sector is projected to report the highest Q1 earnings growth of all S&P 500 sectors, with net profit margins for IT expected at 28.9% — up from 25.4% in Q1 2025. Key contributors include Broadcom (EPS estimate raised to $2.38), Microsoft ($4.05), and Oracle (shares surged 9%+ at its Customer Edge Summit). AI infrastructure spending remains a structural tailwind, insulating top-line growth from geopolitical noise.
A key risk: Q1 guidance cuts from companies exposed to energy costs or Middle East supply chains could re-weaken software sentiment. Netflix, due to report later this week, will be closely watched as a sentiment gauge for the broader tech sector.
The Nasdaq 100 is in technical recovery mode after the steepest war-driven drawdown since Q1 2020. The 0.786 Fibonacci at 25,127 was the “last line of defence” for bears who had been pressing the index during the Iran conflict. The clean close above this level signals a potential re-test of the all-time high zone at 26,175 — though that would require a confirmed diplomatic resolution to materialise. Intermediate resistance at 25,500–25,600 should be monitored carefully in the sessions ahead.
| Level | Price | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fib 1.0 (Prior High) | 26,175.07 | Resistance | All-time area / bull target |
| Near-Term Resistance | 25,500–25,600 | Resistance | Congestion zone / 200-day MA area |
| Current Price | 25,383.72 | Live | Monday April 13 close |
| 0.786 Fibonacci | 25,127.48 | Support | Key breakout level — must hold |
| 0.618 Fibonacci | 24,840.56 | Support | Reclaimed — now support |
| 0.5 Fibonacci | 24,428.32 | Support | Break below = thesis failure |
| 0.382 Fibonacci | 24,016.09 | Support | Secondary support |
| War Low / Fib 0 | 22,681.57 | Support | March 2026 Iran-war trough |
S&P 500 · SPX
Technical Picture
The S&P 500 closed Monday, April 13 at 6,886.24 — its highest close since before the Iran war began on February 27, 2026. The index has now fully erased all conflict-related losses and sits nominally positive for 2026 (+0.05%). The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 7,000.44 high to the 6,317.46 war low shows price has recovered above the critical 0.786 level (6,854.28), which the index closed firmly above.
RSI has surged to 63.46 (signal at 45.59), the highest reading since January 2026, confirming momentum is back on the bulls’ side. The 20-day moving average (6,806.32) has been reclaimed and the 50-day (6,760.32) lies below as support. The next key resistance is the 0.786 Fib at 6,854 (now support after the close above) and the prior all-time high at 7,000.44. A sustained hold above 6,850 opens the path toward the round-number 7,000 psychological level.
The structure remains vulnerable to a swift reversal if diplomatic channels with Iran break down again. The descending trendline from the January 2026 high has been broken — a constructive structural shift. A close back below 6,739 (0.618 Fib) would be the first technical warning signal for the recovery.
Fundamental Drivers
Q1 2026 earnings season is the dominant fundamental theme for the S&P 500. With 12.6% EPS growth projected — the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion — the fundamental picture remains robust. JPMorgan delivered a landmark beat: $16.5 billion in Q1 profit (+13% YoY), $49.8 billion in revenue (+10%), and CEO Jamie Dimon noted “the U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter.” However, Dimon also cautioned about “an increasingly complex set of risks — geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty and elevated asset prices.”
Wells Fargo missed NII forecasts (EPS $1.56 adj. vs $1.58 expected), dragging bank stocks lower in early trading. BlackRock beat expectations at $12.53 adj. EPS. The Finance sector as a whole is expected to deliver +19.6% Q1 earnings growth, making it a critical pillar of the overall index’s upside. The Producer Price Index (PPI) due today at 8:30am ET is the macro data event of the session — a “Goldilocks” reading would cement the rally; a hot print could spark a rates-driven reversal.
AI spending continues to drive the IT sector, with the Information Technology sector’s projected net profit margin of 28.9% the highest of any sector. Oracle and Palantir were standout performers during Monday’s session.
The S&P 500’s technical recovery is the mirror image of the February–March selloff. The descending channel that formed during the Iran war has been broken to the upside, and price now trades at the top of the Fibonacci retracement grid. The path-of-least-resistance is higher if: (a) PPI prints in line or below expectations, (b) further bank earnings beat, and (c) Iran diplomatic signals remain constructive. The 7,000 level — the Fibonacci 1.0 / prior ATH — is the medium-term bull target, requiring only +1.7% upside from Monday’s close.
| Level | Price | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fib 1.0 / Prior ATH | 7,000.44 | Resistance | Ultimate bull target / psychological |
| Near-Term Resistance | 6,900–6,950 | Resistance | Post-close resistance zone |
| Current Price | 6,886.24 | Live | Monday April 13 close |
| 0.786 Fibonacci | 6,854.28 | Support | Critical — must hold for bull case |
| 0.618 Fibonacci | 6,739.54 | Support | 20-day MA cluster zone |
| 0.5 Fibonacci | 6,658.95 | Support | Mid-range support |
| 0.382 Fibonacci | 6,578.36 | Support | 50-day MA zone |
| War Low / Fib 0 | 6,317.46 | Support | Iran-war trough (March 2026) |
FTSE 100 · UKX
Technical Picture
The FTSE 100 edged up just 0.09% to close at 10,592.48 on April 14, anchoring above the critical 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at 10,576.44 — drawn from the 10,938.49 all-time high (February/March 2026) to the 9,404.41 war-induced trough. RSI sits at 60.64 with the signal at 51.37, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum but without the explosive thrust seen in the US indices.
Price is now contending with the convergence zone of the 0.236 Fibonacci and the upper Keltner Channel / moving average cluster (20-day MA at 10,404.53, 50-day at 10,267.83). The index is trading clearly above all key moving averages, which is a structural positive. However, daily candles have been muted — small bodies with long upper wicks — indicating supply at 10,600–10,630 is capping intraday moves.
For bulls, a clean daily close above 10,630–10,650 would open the door to 10,800 and then the all-time high zone near 10,938. Bears would target a reversal back to the 0.382 Fib at 10,352 if 10,576 fails. The long-term uptrend channel (orange lines on chart) has been re-entered from below — a technically constructive development.
Fundamental Drivers
The FTSE 100 faces a uniquely challenging fundamental backdrop in April 2026. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in March — a meeting that had been expected to deliver another cut before the Middle East conflict disrupted the disinflation narrative. The MPC is now in a “watch and wait” mode, closely monitoring second-round inflation effects from energy price transmission. Financial markets no longer expect any BoE rate cuts in 2026.
UK inflation is running at 4% — the highest across all developed markets according to OECD projections — driven by a surge in petrol prices (up 14p/litre or ~10%) and diesel (up 29p/litre or ~20%) since late February. UK growth forecasts for 2026 have been slashed to just 0.7% by UK Finance’s economic review (April 2026), down from prior expectations. Cornwall Insights estimates a £288 increase in the energy price cap when reviewed in July 2026.
However, the FTSE 100 retains structural advantages: 75–80% of constituent revenues are international, meaning a softer dollar and stronger global activity can still lift reported earnings. Defence (BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce), mining (Rio Tinto, Glencore), and energy (Shell, BP) remain beneficiaries of elevated commodity prices. Dividend yields remain compelling relative to global peers, and the P/E of ~14x represents a meaningful discount to the S&P 500 at ~22x.
The FTSE 100 has staged an impressive recovery from the March lows but the pace of recovery lags its US peers significantly — up just 0.09% on the day vs. +1.02% for the S&P 500. The UK’s unique domestic headwinds (inflation at developed-market highs, growth downgraded, BoE on hold) create a drag that the index’s international revenues can only partially offset. The key technical test remains the 10,576–10,630 band. A decisive break higher would likely require a material improvement in the energy price outlook — directly tied to the Iran ceasefire timeline.
| Level | Price | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fib 0 / All-Time High Area | 10,938.49 | Resistance | Prior ATH / Fibonacci origin |
| Near-Term Resistance | 10,630–10,680 | Resistance | Daily upper wick rejection zone |
| Current Price | 10,592.48 | Live | April 14 close |
| 0.236 Fibonacci | 10,576.44 | Support | Critical near-term pivot |
| 20-Day MA | 10,404.53 | Support | Trending support |
| 0.382 Fibonacci | 10,352.47 | Support | Secondary support level |
| 0.5 Fibonacci | 10,171.45 | Support | Mid-range support |
| 0.618 Fibonacci | 9,990.42 | Support | Psychological 10,000 area |
| War Low / Fib 1.0 | 9,404.41 | Support | March 2026 conflict trough |
Macro & Earnings Landscape — April 14, 2026
The Iran Conflict: Market Anatomy of a Geopolitical Shock
The US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 — triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz — sent oil from ~$70/bbl to a peak of ~$114/bbl by early April, a 63% surge in just six weeks. This compressed equity valuations across the board: the S&P 500 fell more than 7% from its January 2026 highs at the peak of the conflict, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped over 13% from its 26,175 high to a March trough below 22,700. The FTSE 100 fell from 10,938 to ~9,600 — a sharp 12% drawdown that was exacerbated by the UK’s high energy import dependency.
The subsequent recovery began on April 8 after a temporary ceasefire was announced, with stocks staging a nine-day winning streak — the Nasdaq’s longest since December 2023. The failure of formal peace talks over the weekend of April 11–12 briefly re-opened the downside, but Trump’s confirmation that Iran had reached out to Washington directly reversed that sentiment intraday on April 13, leading to the strong close that erased all S&P 500 war losses.
Q1 2026 Earnings Season: Fundamentals Hold Despite Geopolitical Noise
The Q1 2026 earnings season officially began this week with S&P 500 EPS growth projected at 12.6% — the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion. Goldman Sachs reported its second-highest quarterly profit ever on April 13. JPMorgan Chase surpassed all estimates with $16.5 billion in net income (+13% YoY) on $49.8 billion in revenue (+10%). BlackRock beat at $12.53 adjusted EPS. Wells Fargo disappointed with adjusted EPS of $1.56, missing the $1.58 estimate as net revenue fell short of forecasts at $21.45 billion.
The Finance sector overall is expected to deliver +19.6% earnings growth in Q1, making it the second-largest earnings contributor behind Technology. The broader corporate backdrop remains resilient: loan growth is running at +7% industry-wide, investment banking saw +10% to +15% trading revenue growth mid-quarter, and AI infrastructure investment continues to expand margins in the Technology sector. The IT sector’s net profit margin of 28.9% in Q1 2026 compares to 25.4% a year ago — a structural margin expansion story that tech bulls point to as the most important fundamental fact of the earnings season.
Bank of England & UK Economy: The Outlier Story
While the Federal Reserve faces a “higher for longer” narrative from energy price uncertainty, the Bank of England’s situation is arguably more constrained. The MPC held rates at 3.75% in March — the meeting where markets had expected another cut — citing the risk of energy price pass-through into second-round inflation. UK CPI is running at 4%, the highest in the developed world according to OECD projections, driven by a 10% surge in petrol prices and a 20% surge in diesel since late February. UK GDP growth has been revised down to just 0.7% for 2026 by UK Finance’s April economic review — barely above stagnation. Financial markets now price no BoE rate cuts for all of 2026. This fundamentally limits the FTSE 100’s upside catalyst relative to the US indices, where the Fed at least retains optionality if inflation cools.
Key Events — April 14–17, 2026
| Date | Time (ET) | Event | Prior | Forecast | Impact | Index Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Apr 14 | 08:30 | US PPI (March) — Month-on-Month | +0.4% | Pending | HIGH | SPX · NDX |
| Tue Apr 14 | Pre-mkt | JPMorgan Q1 Earnings — BEAT | $5.07 EPS | $5.94 ✓ BEAT | HIGH | SPX · NDX |
| Tue Apr 14 | Pre-mkt | Wells Fargo Q1 Earnings — MISS | $1.20 EPS | $1.56 adj. MISS | HIGH | SPX · KBW |
| Tue Apr 14 | Pre-mkt | J&J Q1 Earnings + FY Guidance Raise | $2.57 EPS | Beat — FY Rev. $100.8B | MED | SPX |
| Wed Apr 15 | Pre-mkt | Bank of America Q1 Earnings | $0.83 EPS | ~$0.87 est. | HIGH | SPX · NDX |
| Wed Apr 15 | TBA | UK CPI (March) — YoY | 3.9% | ~4.0% est. | HIGH | FTSE 100 · GBP |
| Thu Apr 16 | 08:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 219,000 | ~215,000 est. | MED | SPX · NDX |
| Thu Apr 16 | Post-mkt | Netflix Q1 Earnings (Key Tech Sentiment) | — | Watch for guidance | HIGH | NDX · SPX |
| Ongoing | — | Iran–US Diplomatic Developments | — | JD Vance: “A lot of progress” | HIGH | SPX · NDX · FTSE |
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