London opens Thursday with the euro capped just below the $1.14 handle, sterling steadier but still close to its 2026 low as the race to succeed Keir Starmer plays out, and a broad, cautiously constructive risk tone across metals and equities — even as oil slides on Iran optimism — as traders count down to today’s early US jobs report, the single most consequential data point of the week, moved forward a day for Friday’s US Independence Day closure.

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1387, just below the 1.1400 handle, as a modestly softer US Dollar builds into today’s release without yet delivering a decisive break higher. The underlying driver of the pair’s recent slide — wide policy-rate and growth-differential expectations favouring the US — has not reversed outright, and Wednesday’s ECB Sintra Forum panel, featuring Fed Chair Kevin Warsh alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, saw Warsh strike a hawkish note on inflation even while acknowledging that price expectations have eased. Elsewhere in FX, GBP/USD has steadied near 1.3289, still close to its 2026 low, after Bailey suggested the question of the Bank Rate would be revisited in July — a hawkish-leaning hint that underpinned sterling during Wednesday’s European session even as political uncertainty continues to weigh: Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation as Labour leader and Prime Minister has triggered a leadership contest, with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham the clear frontrunner and a successor possibly in place as soon as 17 July.

In commodities, Silver has rebounded above $59 after sliding below $58 on Wednesday toward a seven-month low, while Gold has climbed back above the $4,000 mark after dipping beneath it in the prior session, as Fed Chair Warsh’s Wednesday remarks in Sintra — that inflation expectations have eased over the past month even as the central bank remains committed to its 2% target — removed some of the urgency around further US rate hikes that had been pressuring precious metals. Crude Oil has fallen below $69 a barrel, its lowest since 27 February, as US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff hold constructive talks with Iran in Doha and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers, even as Tehran continues to insist on retaining maritime administrative control over the strait. Natural Gas has eased to around $3.19, extending a pullback from the three-week high near $3.35, as revised US weather models point to a moderation in the summer heat wave that had been driving power-sector demand. FTSE 100 is trading cautiously near 10,478, with European shares broadly pulling back ahead of an expected payrolls beat, though defense heavyweights BAE Systems and Babcock International and mining names such as Rio Tinto continue to offset softer consumer and retail shares. Germany’s 20-Year Bund yield has edged up to around 3.28%, tracking a firmer 10-Year yield near 2.94%, as markets continue to digest the hawkish undertones from this week’s Sintra Forum even as expectations for further ECB tightening remain modest. In crypto, Ethereum remains pressured near $1,573, tracking Bitcoin’s worst month since June 2022 amid continued spot-ETF outflows, while BNB has slipped to around $551, similarly underperforming over the past week. Looming over the entire session is today’s early US nonfarm payrolls report, where economists expect a median rise of around 110,000 jobs — though forecasts range widely from 25,000 to 200,000, with World Cup-related temporary hiring flagged as an upside risk — a release that follows Wednesday’s soft ADP print of just 98,000 private-sector jobs, Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected 7.6 million JOLTS job openings figure, and Warsh’s hawkish-leaning Sintra remarks. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.