US Session – Technical Analysis | Monday, 3 August 2026 | Capital Street FX
Wall Street Surges Toward Fresh Records as Oil Craters on a Paused Iran Strike, Yields Ease and Bitcoin Wobbles
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · Gold · Brent Crude Oil · S&P 500 · US 10Y · BTC/USD · BNB — live New York session coverage through the US trading day
“Trump standing down from a planned Iran strike — not a confirmed Hormuz reopening — is what’s driving today’s tape: oil is giving back its conflict-era premium just as Wall Street chases fresh records, the dollar is actually the softer side of the equation as yields retreat, and Iran’s own denial of direct talks is a reminder this de-escalation is still fragile.”
Monday’s US trade is dominated by a sharp reversal in crude oil after President Trump said he held off a planned “massive” strike on Iran at the urging of regional allies including Saudi Arabia, with fresh negotiations between Washington and Tehran set to begin Monday afternoon. Iran, however, has pushed back on that framing, saying no direct talks with the US are yet underway and that its only active discussions on Strait of Hormuz shipping are with Oman — a nuance that keeps this de-escalation more fragile than headline oil moves suggest. Brent futures have slid roughly 5–6% to trade near $82.90–$83, with WTI down a similar magnitude below $80, unwinding weeks of Gulf-conflict risk premium built up through July. The de-escalation is filtering directly into US rates and equities: the 10-year Treasury yield has eased to around 4.67%–4.69% from last week’s peak near 4.73%, and the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq are all firmly higher — the Dow briefly topping 53,000, up around 1% — building on Friday’s gains as lower energy costs and last week’s blockbuster earnings from Amazon and Alphabet keep the AI-led rally intact.
In FX, USD/CAD has climbed to its highest level since June near 1.4036 as the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar bears the brunt of crude’s slide, even as the broader Dollar Index has actually eased to around 99.7–99.8 alongside falling yields, leaving USD/CHF little changed to modestly softer within its broader multi-month uptrend that technicians see extending toward 0.8400. Gold has firmed to around $4,050–$4,065 an ounce as dollar softness offsets the disinflationary pull of cheaper oil, with traders still weighing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s September decision — market pricing for a 25-basis-point hike sits at roughly 63–65% after Chair Kevin Warsh offered little forward guidance at last week’s meeting. Digital assets remain the session’s clear underperformer: Bitcoin is choppy either side of $63,000 as US spot ETFs slipped back into net outflows last week (breaking a three-week inflow streak) and a fresh wave of reported Coldcard hardware-wallet attacks adds to caution, while BNB continues to drift within the descending channel that has capped the token since October. Today’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Palantir’s earnings after the closing bell are the next scheduled catalysts, with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report looming over the entire week.
US Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold, Brent Crude Oil, S&P 500, US 10Y, BTC/USD and BNB this session
US Session Economic Calendar — 3 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the New York trading day (ET as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇳Overnight | Trump Touts Iran Talks, Hormuz Reopens to Tanker Traffic | Brent slides roughly 5–6% toward $82.90; WTI near $78.90 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary cross-asset driver of today’s US session |
| 🇺🇸9:45 ET | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Final) | Confirms flash reading of modest expansion | 🟢 MEDIUM | Early read on factory momentum into the ISM print |
| 🇺🇸10:00 ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Consensus points to continued modest expansion | 🔴 CRITICAL | First major US data point of a payrolls-week |
| 🇺🇸10:00 ET | Construction Spending (June) | Prior reading tracked a modest monthly gain | LOW | Secondary read on broader growth momentum |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US 10-Year Yield Retreats From 18-Month High | Yield eases toward 4.70% from last week’s peak near 4.78% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Oil collapse takes pressure off the US inflation outlook |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | S&P 500 Extends Friday’s Rally Toward Records | Building on Friday’s 0.7% gain to 7,489.72 | 🟢 MEDIUM | Cheaper energy and tech earnings support risk appetite |
| 🇺🇸After Close | Palantir Q2 Earnings | Reported after Monday’s close following eight consecutive beats | 🟢 MEDIUM | Sets the tone for AI-linked tech sentiment into Tuesday |
| 🇺🇸All Week | Positioning Ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls | Culminates a data-heavy week for labor-market direction | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key input for September Fed decision odds |
US Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD has climbed to 1.4036, its highest level since June, as the oil-sensitive Canadian dollar bears the brunt of crude’s roughly 5–6% collapse following the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The pair’s move is a Loonie story more than a broad Dollar story — the Dollar Index is only modestly softer on the session — underscoring how directly Canada’s terms of trade are tied to the energy complex.
Technical Outlook
The pair has pushed through the 1.40 psychological level for the first time since June, confirming a shift toward Dollar strength versus the Loonie. A hold above the 1.3970 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 1.4180 target; a break below the 1.3900 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward 1.3800 should crude stabilize or rebound.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) the durability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and any follow-through in crude prices; (2) today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI for a read on US industrial momentum; (3) Bank of Canada commentary on the growth outlook; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is consolidating near 0.8159, modestly softer on the session after opening at 0.8163, as a slightly weaker Dollar Index takes some air out of the pair following last week’s gains. The broader technical picture continues to point toward 0.8400 as the next major resistance level, with the Dollar still favored over the Franc while traders position for a hawkish-leaning Fed relative to the Swiss National Bank’s near-zero policy rate.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains in a well-defined uptrend that has taken it from below 0.79 earlier this year to today’s levels near 0.816. A hold above the 0.8100 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 0.8400 target; a break below the 0.8020 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward 0.7950 should Dollar softness persist.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and its impact on the Dollar Index; (2) any Swiss National Bank commentary on intervention risk; (3) the broader Dollar’s reaction to easing Treasury yields; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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Gold
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold is trading near $4,077.68 an ounce, up close to 1% on the session from Friday’s close of $4,042.67, as traders balance a softer inflation channel from collapsing oil prices against lingering uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s September decision. Central-bank buying remained the strongest pillar of demand in the second quarter, with the World Gold Council reporting 289 tonnes of official-sector purchases, up 62% year-on-year, underpinning the metal’s longer-term bid.
Technical Outlook
Gold is holding above key support near $4,057 ahead of today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, within a 52-week range of $3,311 to $5,595. A hold above the $4,030 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $4,180 target; a break above $4,112 resistance would open the door toward $4,148 and $4,187, while a break below the $3,970 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward $3,900.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and its read-through for Fed policy; (2) the trajectory of the US 10-year yield following its retreat from 18-month highs; (3) any fresh central-bank buying headlines; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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Brent Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
Brent Crude has collapsed roughly 5–6% from Friday’s close above $87.90 to trade near $82.94, its sharpest single-session decline in weeks, as maritime tracking data shows a resumption of tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump touts resumed peace talks with Iran following months of intermittent Gulf hostilities. The “war premium” that had inflated prices during the conflict is being priced out rapidly, with the 52-week range now spanning $58.72 to $126.41.
Technical Outlook
The contract has broken sharply below its recent consolidation range, confirming a shift in short-term momentum to the downside after weeks of elevated, conflict-driven pricing. A failure to reclaim the $87.00 sell zone keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $78.00 target; a push back above the $89.50 stop-loss level would risk a squeeze higher should fresh Gulf hostilities resurface.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) the durability of today’s Strait of Hormuz reopening and any confirmation of the Iran talks; (2) today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI for a read on US industrial energy demand; (3) US crude inventory data later in the week; (4) any resurgence of Gulf hostility headlines that could reverse today’s move.
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S&P 500
Fundamental Backdrop
The S&P 500 is building on Friday’s 0.7% advance to 7,489.72 and pushing toward fresh record territory near 7,536, supported by lower energy costs following crude’s collapse and blockbuster earnings from mega-cap technology names, including a more than 15% surge in Amazon and a near-7% gain in Alphabet last week. Optimism around the AI investment cycle continues to dominate sentiment, with attention now turning to Palantir’s results after today’s close.
Technical Outlook
The index remains in a strong uptrend, extending a multi-week rally that has repeatedly broken to fresh highs. A hold above the 7,420 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 7,650 target; a break below the 7,340 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward 7,200 should today’s ISM data or Friday’s payrolls report disappoint.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI for a read on industrial momentum; (2) Palantir’s earnings after the closing bell; (3) the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield following its retreat; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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US 10Y Treasury Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
The US 10-year Treasury yield has eased to around 4.70%, retreating from last week’s 18-month high near 4.78%, as crude’s collapse takes pressure off the near-term inflation outlook. Markets are now pricing roughly a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, down from around 80% before last week’s decision, after Chair Kevin Warsh offered little forward guidance and three policymakers dissented in favor of a hold.
Technical Outlook
Yields remain in a longer-term uptrend that pushed the 10-year to its highest level since January 2025 last week, but today’s oil-driven pullback offers near-term relief. A failure to reclaim the 4.80% sell zone keeps the bearish-yield (bullish-bond) structure intact and exposes the 4.50% target; a push back above the 4.90% stop-loss level would risk a resumption of the broader uptrend in yields.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and its read-through for Fed policy; (2) any further commentary from Fed officials on the September meeting; (3) the durability of the oil-price collapse; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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BTC/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin is trading near $62,700, holding within a narrow $62,000–$63,500 range as it fails to draw any meaningful bid from today’s Middle East de-escalation. Net ETF outflows and still-elevated Treasury yields are keeping a lid on price growth, while security concerns tied to recent Coldcard wallet losses and stalling crypto legislation add to the cautious tone among investors.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin remains pressured by rising yields, trading well below its cycle highs within a tightening consolidation range. A failure to reclaim the $64,200 sell zone keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $58,000 target; a push back above the $66,500 stop-loss level would risk a squeeze higher should ETF flows turn positive or yields resume their decline.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) daily spot Bitcoin ETF flow data; (2) the trajectory of the US 10-year yield following its retreat; (3) any progress on stalled US crypto legislation; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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BNB
Fundamental Backdrop
BNB is trading near $567.40, down modestly from Friday’s close of $570.10 and confined to a tight day range of $565.90 to $571.20. The token continues to track Bitcoin’s broader risk tone rather than establishing independent direction, with daily RSI sitting in neutral territory and no fresh ecosystem catalyst strong enough to force a breakout.
Technical Outlook
Both the daily and weekly charts show the same descending channel that has capped BNB since last October, with the longer- and shorter-term structure in agreement. A failure to reclaim the $595 sell zone keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $520 target; a push back above the $615 stop-loss level would risk a channel breakout, opening the door toward the $650–$700 zone.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Bitcoin’s broader directional cues given BNB’s high correlation; (2) any fresh BNB Chain burn or ecosystem announcements; (3) the trajectory of ETF-related crypto flows; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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US Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why has crude oil collapsed so sharply today?
Why is USD/CAD rising if the broader Dollar is only modestly firmer?
If oil is crashing, why is the S&P 500 rallying toward records?
Why is the 10-year Treasury yield falling after hitting an 18-month high last week?
Why isn’t Bitcoin rallying on today’s Middle East de-escalation?
US Session Summary — Monday, 3 August 2026 (Live Update)
Monday’s US session has been dominated by the same sharp reversal in energy markets that shook European trade earlier in the day: Brent Crude has collapsed roughly 5–6% from Friday’s close above $87.90 to trade near $82.94, as tanker traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump touts resumed peace talks with Iran following months of fragile Gulf de-escalation. The move is rippling across every asset on this desk. The S&P 500 is building on Friday’s 0.7% advance to 7,489.72 and pushing toward fresh record territory near 7,536.80, supported by lower energy costs and blockbuster tech earnings, with Palantir’s results due after today’s close. The US 10-year Treasury yield is easing back toward 4.70% from last week’s 18-month high near 4.78%, as the oil collapse takes pressure off the inflation outlook ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. In FX, USD/CAD has pushed to its highest level since June near 1.4036 as the oil-sensitive Loonie bears the brunt of crude’s slide, while USD/CHF is modestly softer near 0.8159 within its broader uptrend. Gold is holding a firm bid near $4,077.68, up close to 1% on the session, as traders weigh cheaper energy against lingering Fed uncertainty, with markets now pricing roughly a 63% chance of a September rate hike. Crypto remains the session’s laggard: Bitcoin is pinned near $62,700 on persistent ETF outflows and elevated yields, while BNB is drifting near $567.40 within the descending channel that has capped it since October. Highest-conviction session idea: sell Brent Crude rallies toward $87.00, targeting $78.00 — the combination of a reopening Strait of Hormuz and touted Iran peace talks is a powerful multi-pronged catalyst for further downside, though any renewed flare-up in Gulf tensions is a genuine source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3970, stop 1.3900, target 1.4180 — crude’s collapse is a genuine tailwind for further Loonie weakness, though a rebound in oil prices is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CHF buy dips toward 0.8100, stop 0.8020, target 0.8400 — the broader multi-month uptrend remains a genuine tailwind, though a sustained Dollar-wide pullback is a real headwind. Gold buy dips toward $4,030, stop $3,970, target $4,180 — central-bank buying and Fed uncertainty are genuine tailwinds, though a resolution of the Fed’s rate path or a stronger Dollar are real headwinds. Brent Crude Oil sell rallies toward $87.00, stop $89.50, target $78.00 — the Hormuz reopening and touted Iran talks are powerful tailwinds for further downside, though renewed Gulf hostilities are a genuine source of two-way risk. S&P 500 buy dips toward 7,420, stop 7,340, target 7,650 — lower energy costs and strong earnings are genuine tailwinds, though a disappointing ISM print or payrolls report is a real headwind. US 10Y yield fade rallies toward 4.80%, stop 4.90%, target 4.50% — today’s oil collapse is a genuine tailwind for lower yields near-term, though heavy 2026 issuance remains a structural headwind over the medium term. BTC/USD sell rallies toward $64,200, stop $66,500, target $58,000 — persistent ETF outflows and elevated yields are genuine headwinds, though a reversal in flows is a real source of two-way risk. BNB sell rallies toward $595, stop $615, target $520 — the multi-month descending channel is a genuine tailwind for further downside, though a broader crypto-market recovery is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are the durability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, Palantir’s earnings after the close, and positioning into Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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