Dollar Near Three-Month Low as Oil Falls and FTSE Hits Record Highs Ahead of Jackson Hole | Technical Analysis – European Session | 24-08-2026
Dollar Holds Near Three-Month Low as Oil Slips Ahead of Bessent’s “Economic D-Day” on Iran, FTSE Hits Fresh Highs Into Jackson Hole Week
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · EUR/GBP · Silver · Crude Oil · FTSE 100 · EU 10Y · XRP · ETH/USD — live coverage through the European trading session
European Market News — Live Now, Ongoing Session, 24 August 2026
Top-moving headlines shaping the live European session, updated through the London morning
Oil Slips as Traders Book Profit Ahead of Bessent’s “Economic D-Day” Sanctions on Iran
Brent crude has eased around 1.4% to near $90.93 a barrel and WTI has slipped about 1.6% to near $85.65, as investors take profit ahead of a package of sanctions Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has billed as the “greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary,” due to be unveiled later Monday. Iran has dismissed the threat of intensified pressure and warned of further disruption to oil markets, while analysts flag that a durable easing of Strait of Hormuz tensions remains the clearest path back toward the lower end of the year’s wide trading range.
Energy & GeopoliticsDollar Index Holds Near Three-Month Low as Traders Look Past a Quiet Monday to PCE and Jackson Hole
The Dollar Index is trading close to 98.85, just above the three-month low near 98.20 set last week, in a session with no major European data releases scheduled. Attention is turning to Tuesday’s German Ifo Business Climate survey, Wednesday’s US July PCE inflation print, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, which strategists at BBH describe as the week’s single biggest swing factor for the Dollar given Warsh’s reluctance to offer forward guidance and the absence of a scheduled Q&A session.
Central Banks & FXSilver Holds Near $69 an Ounce as Gold Sits Close to Its Best Levels Since June
Silver is trading near $68.72 an ounce, consolidating just below Friday’s decade-plus high close to $69.90, while Gold holds near $4,590, not far off last week’s peak above $4,600. A softer Dollar and fading near-term Fed hike bets remain the key tailwinds for bullion, with the gold/silver ratio still compressed in a sign that silver continues to participate fully in the broader precious-metals advance rather than lagging behind it.
Precious MetalsGerman Bund Yields Hold Near 15-Year Highs as Europe’s Bond-Market Repricing Continues
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield is holding near 3.25%, just off last week’s peak above 3.26% — its highest level since March 2011 — as fiscal-sustainability concerns spanning Germany, France, the UK, Japan and the US keep long-end government bond yields under sustained upward pressure. Tuesday’s German Ifo survey and the ECB’s July meeting minutes, also due this week, are the next scheduled tests of whether the hawkish repricing that has underpinned the Euro has further room to run.
Rates & BondsFTSE 100 Edges to Fresh Highs as Miners Offset Falling Oil Prices
The FTSE 100 has opened the week firmer, edging up toward the 10,825-10,835 area after Friday’s 0.64% gain took the index to 10,816.56, as gold- and silver-linked miners offset today’s pullback in Brent and WTI crude weighing on oil majors Shell and BP. Mining names remain a partial offset given Silver and Gold’s proximity to multi-year highs, while investors also continue to digest last Thursday’s profit warning from JD Sports and the broader question of how UK large-caps navigate a week headlined by Jackson Hole.
UK EquitiesXRP Holds Near $1.4624 and Ether Near $2,456.23 as Crypto Consolidates Last Week’s Surge
XRP is trading near $1.4624, consolidating a more than 30% weekly surge sparked by last week’s Treasury-buyback announcement and a short squeeze that liquidated over $1.25 billion in leveraged positions, while Ethereum holds near $2,456.23, tracking Bitcoin’s climb toward $80,000 on continued spot ETF inflows. Goldman Sachs has disclosed a $153.8 million position across four spot XRP ETFs, making it the largest disclosed institutional XRP holder as attention turns to prospects for the CLARITY Act later this year.
CryptoLive · Ongoing session · Updated through the European morning, Monday 24 August 2026
European Session Economic Calendar — 24 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the European trading day and the week ahead
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Later Monday | US Treasury “Economic D-Day” Sanctions Package on Iran | Secretary Bessent to unveil sweeping new measures aimed at economically isolating Iran | 🔴 CRITICAL | The session’s dominant catalyst; oil has already slipped on profit-taking into the announcement |
| 🇩🇪Monday, No Major EU Data | Eurozone & UK Calendar Largely Empty | No major macroeconomic releases scheduled for the European session on Monday | ⚪ LOW | A thin data day leaves positioning around Iran headlines and pre-PCE flows as the main drivers |
| 🇩🇪Tuesday 08:00 GMT | Germany Ifo Business Climate & Expectations (Aug) | Follows Friday’s flash PMI beat; also German Q2 GDP Final due Tuesday | 🔴 CRITICAL | A beat would reinforce September ECB hike bets and extend the Euro’s recent firmness |
| 🇺🇸Wednesday | US Core PCE Price Index (Jul) | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, closely watched ahead of Jackson Hole | 🔴 CRITICAL | A soft print would reinforce Dollar weakness; a hot print risks a sharp reversal in DXY |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | Germany 10-Year Bund Yield Near 15-Year High | Holding near 3.25%, just off last week’s 3.26%+ peak, the highest since March 2011 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Structural fiscal-sustainability concerns keep a floor under European long-end yields |
| 🇺🇸Thu–Sat, 27–29 Aug | Jackson Hole Symposium — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh | Warsh delivers his first keynote as Fed Chair on Thursday; theme is “Financial Innovation” | 🔴 CRITICAL | Seen as the single biggest swing factor for the Dollar and global risk appetite this week |
| 🇺🇸Tuesday | US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) & House Price Index (Jun) | Secondary US data points ahead of Wednesday’s PCE release | 🟢 MEDIUM | Unlikely to be a major mover on their own but add to the pre-PCE data flow |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s nine key instruments
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1664, comfortably within its 52-week range of roughly 1.1325-1.2079 and consolidating just below last week’s three-month high, as the pair digests Friday’s stronger-than-expected flash Eurozone PMIs and a Dollar Index that remains pinned near 98.85, just above the three-month low it set last week. With no major Eurozone data due on Monday itself, the pair’s near-term path likely hinges on Tuesday’s German Ifo survey and, more importantly, Wednesday’s US core PCE print, which sets the tone heading into Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Friday Jackson Hole keynote.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal leans constructive, with the pair holding well above its 50-day average after last week’s push toward the 1.17 handle. A confirmed break above 1.1692 would expose the 1.1782 zone and put the 52-week high near 1.2079 back in play, while a slip below the 1.1582 pivot risks a deeper pullback toward 1.1502, with Wednesday’s PCE print and Friday’s Jackson Hole address the clearest sources of two-way risk into the weekend.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3664, a fresh six-month high that extends past Friday’s close near 1.3650, as the Dollar’s broader downtrend continues without a meaningful bounce at the start of the week. Sterling’s strength continues to reflect the same Treasury-buyback-driven Dollar weakness that lifted G10 currencies broadly last week rather than fresh domestic strength, with the pound largely shrugging off last Friday’s soft UK Retail Sales print and now looking ahead to Wednesday’s US PCE data for the next directional cue.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal remains constructive, with the pair holding comfortably above its 50-day average after last week’s rally from the low-1.35 area. A confirmed break above 1.3700 would expose the 1.3856 zone, while a slip below the 1.3556 pivot risks a retracement toward 1.3456, with Wednesday’s PCE print and any fresh Bank of England commentary the clearest sources of two-way risk into Friday’s Jackson Hole address.
EUR/GBP
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/GBP is trading near 0.8562, little changed on the day and holding within its recent 0.8540-0.8572 range as both the Euro and Sterling ride the same broad Dollar-weakness wave without a clear catalyst to break the cross out in either direction. With no major Eurozone or UK data due Monday, the pair is likely to stay rangebound until Tuesday’s German Ifo release and comparable UK indicators later in the week offer a fresh relative read on growth momentum either side of the Channel.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal is mixed, with the cross oscillating around its 50-day average after drifting lower from the 0.877 high touched earlier this year. A confirmed break above 0.8612 would expose the 0.8672 zone, while a slip below the 0.8512 pivot risks a deeper move toward 0.8472, with the relative hawkishness of the ECB versus the Bank of England the clearest medium-term driver of direction.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver is trading near $68.72 an ounce, consolidating just below Friday’s decade-plus high close to $69.90 and still up sharply on the month, as Dollar weakness and receding near-term Fed hike bets continue to underpin precious-metals demand alongside Gold’s own push toward $4,600. Strong industrial demand tied to solar and grid electrification remains a structural tailwind alongside the investment-driven “debasement trade,” even as today’s session sees silver take a modest breather after three consecutive weekly gains.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal remains firmly constructive, with the metal holding well above its 50-day and 100-day averages after this month’s breakout. A confirmed break above $69.90 would expose fresh multi-decade highs, while a pullback below the $65.22 pivot risks a retracement toward $62.72, with Wednesday’s US PCE print and Friday’s Jackson Hole address the clearest sources of two-way risk into the weekend.
Crude Oil (Brent)
Fundamental Backdrop
Brent crude is trading near $90.93 a barrel, down around 1.4% on the day, as WTI slips a comparable 1.6% to near $85.65, with traders booking profit ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s promised “economic D-Day” package of sanctions on Iran due later Monday. The pullback is a classic sell-the-news dynamic rather than a shift in the underlying supply picture: the Strait of Hormuz standoff remains unresolved, Ukrainian strikes continue to disrupt Russian refining capacity, and CBA still sees Brent’s second-half range as wide as $70-$100 a barrel depending on how shipping flows evolve.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal leans constructive on a medium-term view despite today’s pullback, with the contract still up sharply over the past year and holding above its 200-day average. A confirmed break back above $92.64 would expose the $95.84 zone and put a retest of the year’s highs above $120 in play over time, while a slip below the $87.84 pivot risks a deeper retracement toward $84.84, with the substance of today’s sanctions announcement the single clearest source of two-way risk into the New York handover.
FTSE 100
Fundamental Backdrop
The FTSE 100 is trading near 10,830.00, edging up from Friday’s close at 10,816.56 (+0.64%) and closing in on its 52-week high near 10,989, as strength in mining names offsets today’s dip in Brent and WTI crude weighing on heavyweight oil majors Shell and BP. Silver and Gold’s proximity to multi-year highs continues to support Fresnillo, Antofagasta and Rio Tinto among the names investors continue to watch, while banking stocks and the broader index still digest last Thursday’s profit warning from JD Sports Fashion heading into a week dominated by Jackson Hole.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal stays constructive on balance, with the index holding well above its 50-day average after last week’s push toward fresh highs. A confirmed break above 10,875 would expose the 52-week high near 10,989, while a slip below the 10,705 pivot risks a deeper pullback toward 10,605, with today’s Iran sanctions announcement and Friday’s Jackson Hole address the clearest sources of two-way risk into the weekend.
EU 10Y
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield is holding near 3.25%, just off last week’s peak above 3.26% — its highest level since March 2011 — as fiscal-sustainability concerns spanning Germany, France, the UK, Japan and the US keep long-end government bond yields under sustained upward pressure. Markets continue to price a hawkish ECB path into September, a dynamic Tuesday’s Ifo survey and this week’s ECB July meeting minutes are both likely to test, with the structural driver behind the move remaining distinct from — but reinforcing — the broader global repricing of sovereign debt.
Technical Outlook
The yield’s daily signal leans higher, holding above its 50-day average after last week’s push to a 15-year high. A confirmed break above 3.30% would expose the 3.40% zone, while a pullback below the 3.15% pivot risks a retracement toward 3.05%, with Tuesday’s Ifo data and Wednesday’s US PCE print the clearest sources of two-way risk into Friday’s Jackson Hole address.
XRP
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.4624, consolidating a more than 30% weekly surge sparked by last week’s Treasury-buyback announcement and a short squeeze that liquidated over $1.25 billion in leveraged short positions across the crypto market. Goldman Sachs has disclosed a $153.8 million position across four spot XRP ETFs, making Wall Street’s biggest bank the largest known institutional XRP holder, while Ripple’s recent moves into US prime brokerage and multi-asset clearing continue to feed a broader institutional-adoption narrative heading into potential CLARITY Act developments later this year.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal remains constructive, with the token holding comfortably above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages after last week’s surge. A confirmed break above $1.5024 would expose the $1.6124 zone, while a pullback below the $1.2624 pivot risks a retest of $1.1124, with Bitcoin’s ability to extend its own advance toward $80,000 and any fresh regulatory headlines the clearest sources of two-way risk this week.
ETH/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum is trading near $2,456.23, up modestly on the day and tracking Bitcoin’s own climb toward $80,000 on the back of continued spot ETF inflows, with BlackRock’s staked ether product among the vehicles drawing fresh institutional demand in recent weeks. The token continues to benefit from the same Treasury-buyback-driven risk-on backdrop lifting XRP and the broader crypto market, even as today’s session is comparatively quiet for Ether specifically relative to XRP’s more dramatic weekly move.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal leans constructive, with the token holding above its 50-day average after climbing steadily through August. A confirmed break above $2,514.23 would expose the $2,614.23 zone and put a run at higher long-term targets back in view, while a pullback below the $2,314.23 pivot risks a retracement toward $2,164.23, with Bitcoin’s own trajectory toward $80,000 and this week’s PCE and Jackson Hole events the clearest sources of two-way risk.
European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why is oil falling today even though the US is about to announce tougher sanctions on Iran?
Why does today’s economic calendar look so quiet compared to last week?
Why are Silver and German Bund yields both near multi-year highs at the same time?
Why is the FTSE 100 lower today when Silver and Gold are still near highs?
What should traders watch for the rest of the European session and into the week ahead?
European Session Summary — Monday, 24 August 2026 (Live Update)
Monday’s European session has opened in consolidation mode, with the Dollar Index holding near 98.85 — just above the three-month low of roughly 98.20 it set last week — on a day with no major scheduled Eurozone or UK data releases. EUR/USD is steady near 1.1664 within reach of last week’s three-month high, GBP/USD has pushed to a fresh six-month high near 1.3664, extending past Friday’s peak near 1.3650, and EUR/GBP is rangebound near 0.8562 as both legs digest last week’s moves. The session’s dominant single-name story is energy: Brent crude has slipped around 1.4% to near $90.93 and WTI has fallen about 1.6% to near $85.65, as traders take profit ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s promised “economic D-Day” sanctions package on Iran, due to be unveiled later Monday. Precious metals remain a bright spot: Silver is holding near $68.72 an ounce, just off Friday’s decade-plus high near $69.90, while Gold sits close to $4,590, near its best levels since June. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield is holding near 3.25%, just off last week’s 15-year high above 3.26%, as fiscal-sustainability concerns keep long-end yields elevated across major markets. The FTSE 100 has opened the week firmer near 10,830.00, up from Friday’s close at 10,816.56, as mining stocks offset the drag from falling oil prices on Shell and BP. Crypto remains firm after last week’s Treasury-buyback-driven surge: XRP is holding near $1.4624, consolidating a more than 30% weekly gain, while Ethereum trades near $2,456.23, tracking Bitcoin’s push toward $80,000. Highest-conviction session idea: favour precious metals, EUR/USD and GBP/USD longs alongside crypto exposure while the Dollar stays capped, but size crude oil and FTSE 100 positions cautiously around today’s Iran sanctions announcement and treat Wednesday’s PCE print and Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote as the week’s genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1582, stop 1.1502, target 1.1782 — persistent Dollar weakness is a genuine tailwind, though Wednesday’s PCE print is a real source of two-way risk. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3556, stop 1.3456, target 1.3856 — the broader Dollar downtrend is a genuine tailwind, though a hot US PCE surprise is a real source of two-way risk. EUR/GBP sell rallies toward 0.8612, stop 0.8672, target 0.8472 — a rangebound cross with no clear near-term catalyst is the base case, though this week’s Ifo and UK data are a real source of two-way risk. Silver buy dips toward $65.22, stop $62.72, target $72.72 — a soft Dollar and firm industrial demand are a genuine tailwind, though a sharp Dollar rebound is a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $87.84, stop $84.84, target $95.84 — unresolved Hormuz risk is a genuine tailwind, though the outcome of today’s sanctions announcement is a real source of two-way risk. FTSE 100 buy dips toward 10,705, stop 10,605, target 10,995 — mining strength is a genuine tailwind, though falling oil prices are a real source of two-way risk. EU 10Y buy dips in yield toward 3.15%, stop 3.05%, target 3.40% — fiscal-sustainability concerns are a genuine tailwind, though a dovish PCE surprise is a real source of two-way risk. XRP buy dips toward $1.2624, stop $1.1124, target $1.6124 — institutional accumulation is a genuine tailwind, though the scale of last week’s move itself is a real source of two-way risk. ETH/USD buy dips toward $2,314.23, stop $2,164.23, target $2,614.23 — Bitcoin’s own advance toward $80,000 is a genuine tailwind, though profit-taking after a strong month is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the week are the substance of today’s Iran sanctions announcement, Wednesday’s US core PCE print, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Friday Jackson Hole keynote, with the latter seen as the single biggest swing factor for the Dollar and global risk appetite into September. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s quiet data calendar can mask genuine event risk building later in the week.
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