Dollar Steadies, Oil Holds Near Six-Week Highs on Hormuz Tension as FTSE 100 Turns Cautious Into Payrolls | Technical Analysis – European Session | 04-09-2026
Dollar Steadies, Oil Holds Near Six-Week Highs on Hormuz Tension as FTSE 100 Turns Cautious Into Payrolls
EUR/USD · GBP/CHF · Silver · Crude Oil · FTSE 100 · ETH/USD · XRP — live European market outlook today, updated through the trading session
European Session Live News — Friday, 4 September 2026
The headlines moving European FX, equities and commodities right now
FTSE 100 Turns Cautious as Traders Eye US Jobs Data
British stocks are roughly flat to slightly softer on Friday as investors turn cautious ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, with the reading seen as pivotal to whether the Federal Reserve raises rates at its September 16 meeting. The FTSE 100 was last down about 0.01-0.04% near 10,827, following Thursday’s 0.70% rally to 10,831.52, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both edged higher.
EquitiesDollar Index Steadies Near 98.99 After Waller-Driven Slide
The Dollar index is holding just under 99 after Thursday’s sharp drop, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said recent data show signs of disinflation and that he would favour a September hold if the trend is confirmed, cutting futures-implied hike odds to about 50% from roughly 63% a day earlier. A stronger ISM Services print later pushed Treasury yields back up, capping the Dollar’s slide.
RatesEU Joins US “Operation Economic Outcast” Sanctions on Iran
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the European Union has “officially” joined the US-led sanctions campaign aimed at severing Iran’s remaining economic lifelines. The move lands alongside a fresh wave of US strikes that Iranian officials say killed at least 18 people and wounded 142, keeping a geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in oil and safe-haven flows.
GeopoliticsOil Holds Near Six-Week Highs as Hormuz Traffic Stays Thin
Brent crude is trading near $95.7-95.9 a barrel and WTI near $91.5-91.7, both close to their best levels in about six weeks. Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to roughly 102 last week, well below the 130-plus a day seen before the conflict, with operators continuing to route cargoes through a US-guided southern corridor near Oman.
CommoditiesSwiss Franc Firms as Hormuz Tension Underpins Haven Demand
The Swiss Franc is drawing renewed safe-haven demand as Middle East tension persists, pressuring crosses such as GBP/CHF even as Sterling itself firms against the Dollar. The Swiss National Bank, which holds its policy rate at 0% and next meets on September 24, continues to reiterate its readiness to intervene against excessive Franc appreciation.
ForexCrypto Majors Extend Rally as Bitcoin Holds Above $80,800
Every major token gained on Thursday as traders cut bets on a September Fed hike to a coin flip, and the move is carrying into the European morning. Ethereum is up roughly 4.6% near $2,514.72, while XRP has jumped about 5.7% to near $1.45, though it remains well below its August peak near $1.70.
CryptoLast refreshed during the European morning session, Friday 4 September 2026 · cross-checked against Reuters, Investing.com, Bloomberg and FXStreet
European Session Overview
“Waller is pushing back against the thrust of the argument made by Warsh last week that there is little evidence that underlying inflation has moved lower.” — JPMorgan analyst note, cited by Reuters
European shares have opened mixed on Friday, holding on to most of Thursday’s rate-relief rally while turning cautious into the crucial US jobs report. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s dovish remarks cut September hike odds to about 50% from roughly 63% a day earlier, dragging the Dollar index down to as low as 98.96 before a stronger ISM Services print helped it stabilise near 98.99-99.0. Sterling is firm against the Dollar near 1.3542, but the Swiss Franc is the standout mover in European crosses, drawing safe-haven demand as tension around the Strait of Hormuz persists and the European Union formally joins the US “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctions campaign against Iran.
Government bond yields are steadier after Thursday’s slide, with the US 10-year near 4.76% and Germany’s 10-year Bund yield near 3.36%, up modestly on the day. UK gilt yields, which fell sharply on Thursday and helped drive the FTSE 100’s 0.70% rally, are little changed this morning. Brent crude is up around 7% this week near $95.7-95.9 a barrel on persistent Hormuz-linked supply risk, while Silver is holding near $67.3-67.4 an ounce, easing modestly after Thursday’s push toward $67.6. Gold is steady near $4,467-4,517 an ounce.
European Session Economic Calendar — 4 September 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the rest of the day
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Overnight (Released) | Fed Governor Christopher Waller — Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Remarks | Sees “some signs of disinflation” and would favour a September hold if confirmed | 🔴 CRITICAL | Cut September hike odds to about 50% from 63% and dragged the Dollar index to 98.96 |
| 🇪🇺Today, European Morning | EU Formally Joins US “Operation Economic Outcast” Sanctions on Iran | Treasury Secretary Bessent confirms EU accession to the sanctions campaign | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reinforces the geopolitical risk premium already embedded in oil and haven flows |
| 🇺🇸Today, 08:30 ET (Later Today) | US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Earnings (August) | Consensus +55,000 jobs after July’s shock -23,000; unemployment seen steady at 4.1% | 🔴 CRITICAL | The decisive event risk of the day and the Fed’s last input before its blackout period |
| 🇬🇧Today, European Morning | FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 Open Mixed Into Payrolls | FTSE 100 roughly flat near 10,827; DAX +0.13% near 26,042; CAC 40 +0.04% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Profit-taking after Thursday’s gilt-yield-driven FTSE rally offsets a firmer risk backdrop |
| 🇺🇸Yesterday (Released) | US ISM Services PMI (August) | 55.4 actual vs 54.2 consensus; prices paid at a three-year high | 🔴 CRITICAL | Strong headline with hot prices paid partially offset the dovish Fed repricing overnight |
| 🇨🇭Ongoing | Strait of Hormuz Traffic Watch | About 102 tanker transits last week versus 130-plus a day before the conflict | 🟢 MEDIUM | Underpins the crude risk premium even as flows continue via a southern Oman corridor |
| 🇪🇺This Week (Ongoing) | ECB Third-Hike Debate — JPMorgan Now Sees December Move | JPMorgan shifts its call to a third ECB hike in December amid sticky inflation | 🟢 MEDIUM | Adds a modest hawkish undertone to the Euro even as near-term price action stays rangebound |
| 🇨🇭This Week (Ongoing) | Swiss National Bank — Rate Held at 0%, Intervention Threat Repeated | SNB reiterates readiness to intervene against excessive Franc appreciation; next meeting Sept 24 | 🟢 MEDIUM | Caps further Franc gains even as Hormuz-linked haven demand persists |
| 🇳🇵Thursday, 10 September | ECB Governing Council Decision | Economists’ consensus points to a 25bp hike to 2.50% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Would mark the ECB’s shortest tightening campaign since 2011 |
| 🇺🇸Tuesday-Wednesday, 15-16 September | FOMC Meeting and Projections | Hike odds near a coin flip after Waller; Chair Warsh remains the hawkish counterweight | 🔴 CRITICAL | The dominant medium-term driver for the Dollar, European crosses and risk-asset positioning |
European Session Trade Ideas — EUR/USD, FTSE 100, Crude Oil and More
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
EUR/USD
Why This Setup
The pair is caught between a softer Dollar and a firming ECB narrative: Waller’s dovish tilt has capped the Dollar’s upside, while JPMorgan has shifted its call to a third ECB hike in December, adding a modest hawkish undertone to the Euro side of the pair. EUR/USD is holding just above a two-week low near 1.1623-1.1633 and has strengthened 0.64% over the past month even as it sits 0.71% lower over the past year. Next Thursday’s ECB decision, where consensus points to a 25bp hike to 2.50%, is the next major catalyst, while a hot US payrolls print later today is the main two-way risk that could revive Dollar strength and cap any near-term bounce.
GBP/CHF
Why This Setup
The move is being driven almost entirely by the Franc side of the cross rather than Sterling itself, which is firm against the Dollar near 1.3542. Renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz and the EU’s formal accession to the “Operation Economic Outcast” Iran sanctions campaign are keeping a safe-haven bid under the Swiss Franc even as broader risk appetite improves. The pair is down 5.7% over the past year and is trading well inside its 52-week range of 1.0289-1.1210. The main two-way risk is renewed SNB intervention rhetoric or a sudden de-escalation in the Middle East, either of which could spark a sharp short-covering bounce back above 1.0560.
Silver
Why This Setup
Silver is pulling back modestly from Thursday’s push toward $67.6 an ounce as a small Dollar bounce and a pause in the bond-yield slide encourage some profit-taking after a roughly 13% one-month rally. The metal is still up more than 60% year-on-year, riding the same Fed-hike-odds repricing that lifted gold to a 2% rally on Thursday, and the gold-silver ratio remains near 67 with both metals advancing together. A soft US payrolls print later today would likely revive the rally toward retest of the week’s highs, while a hot print is the main downside risk, alongside any sharp de-escalation in the Middle East that removes the safe-haven bid.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Why This Setup
WTI is holding near $91.52 and Brent near $95.72-95.90, both close to six-week highs, as renewed US-Iran hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz and the EU’s formal accession to the “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctions campaign keep a war-risk premium firmly in place. Hormuz transits have fallen to roughly 102 last week versus more than 130 a day before the conflict, though tankers continue to move via a US-guided southern corridor near Oman, which has so far prevented a sharper supply shock. Oil is on course for its steepest weekly gain since mid-July; the main downside risk is any credible sign that Washington is winding the conflict down, which the Wall Street Journal reports Trump is privately weighing.
FTSE 100
Why This Setup
The index is consolidating just below Thursday’s close of 10,831.52, a 0.70% gain driven by falling UK gilt yields and a rotation into rate-sensitive banks, which rose 1.4%, and precious-metals miners, which climbed 3.4% on higher gold and silver. Friday’s cautious tone reflects profit-taking ahead of US payrolls rather than a change in trend: elevated oil prices are a tailwind for heavyweights BP and Shell, even as persistent gilt-yield and inflation concerns cap the upside. A soft payrolls print would likely extend the rate-relief rally into a retest of recent highs, while a hot print alongside a Dollar and yield rebound is the main risk to the bullish case.
Ethereum (ETH)
Why This Setup
ETH is riding the same rate-relief wave lifting Bitcoin back above $80,800, after Waller’s dovish tilt eased the yield pressure that had weighed on crypto through the week. Every major token gained on Thursday as traders cut bets on a September Fed hike to a coin flip, and Ethereum’s roughly 4.6% advance over the past 24 hours is among the strongest in the majors. The move has been accompanied by continued spot-ETF interest, though ETH remains well below its 2025 highs and prone to sharp reversals. A broad crypto risk-off move triggered by a hot payrolls print is the main source of two-way risk into the New York session.
XRP
Why This Setup
XRP is recovering alongside the broader crypto complex, up roughly 5.7% over the past 24 hours to near $1.45 as September Fed hike odds are cut to a coin flip. The token opened September under pressure near $1.35, down about 8.2% from its August peak near $1.70 after its best August performance since 2021, a 28.5% monthly gain, so today’s bounce is a partial retracement of that pullback rather than a fresh breakout. Ripple’s continued institutional build-out, including a new Delta One desk offering hedge funds swap exposure to equities and Treasuries, is a supportive backdrop, while a hot payrolls print reviving Dollar strength is the main downside risk.
European Session FAQ — 4 September 2026
Quick answers to the questions traders are asking right now
Why is the Dollar steadying today after Thursday’s slide?
Why is GBP/CHF falling even though Sterling is firm against the Dollar?
Why is oil holding near six-week highs during the European morning?
Why is Silver pulling back slightly after this week’s rally?
Why is the FTSE 100 cautious today after Thursday’s 0.7% rally?
Why are Ethereum and XRP both rallying together?
What is the single biggest risk to today’s European-session trades?
European Session Summary — Friday, 4 September 2026 (Live Update)
Friday’s European session is trading cautiously as investors weigh Thursday’s dovish Fed surprise against a fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, all ahead of the crucial US jobs report. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remark that recent data show signs of disinflation and that he would favour a September hold cut futures-implied hike odds to about 50% from roughly 63% a day earlier, dragging the Dollar index down to as low as 98.96 before a stronger ISM Services print helped it stabilise near 98.99-99.0. Germany’s DAX is up about 0.13% near 26,042 and France’s CAC 40 is up around 0.04%, while the FTSE 100 is roughly flat near 10,827 as it digests Thursday’s 0.70% rally to 10,831.52.
The Swiss Franc is the standout mover in European crosses, drawing safe-haven demand as tension around the Strait of Hormuz persists and the European Union formally joins the US-led “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctions campaign against Iran, dragging GBP/CHF toward 1.0487 even though Sterling itself is firm against the Dollar near 1.3542. EUR/USD is holding just above a two-week low near 1.1627, caught between the softer Dollar and a firming ECB narrative after JPMorgan shifted its call to a third ECB hike in December, with next Thursday’s ECB decision looming.
Commodities are holding firm on their own supply and rate stories: Brent crude near $95.7-95.9 a barrel and WTI near $91.5-91.7 sit close to six-week highs on persistent Hormuz-linked supply risk, while Silver near $67.3-67.4 an ounce is easing modestly after Thursday’s push toward $67.6, still up more than 60% year-on-year. Crypto majors are firmly bid alongside the broader risk rally, with Ethereum up roughly 4.6% near $2,514.72 and XRP up about 5.7% near $1.45 as Bitcoin holds above $80,800.
Highest-conviction session idea: fade the Franc crosses — selling rallies in GBP/CHF — while buying dips in EUR/USD, Silver, Crude Oil, the FTSE 100 and the crypto majors on the same rate-relief and geopolitical-risk-premium theme, and staying alert to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls, which can reverse every one of these positions once New York trading begins.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1580, stop 1.1520, target 1.1750 — a softer Dollar and a firming ECB narrative are a genuine tailwind, though a hot payrolls print is a real source of two-way risk. GBP/CHF sell rallies toward 1.0560, stop 1.0630, target 1.0350 — Hormuz-linked Franc haven demand is a genuine tailwind for the downside case, though SNB intervention rhetoric is a real source of two-way risk. Silver buy dips toward $65.50, stop $63.50, target $71.00 — falling hike odds and a persistent haven bid are a genuine tailwind, though a firmer Dollar is a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $89.50, stop $87.00, target $96.00 — Hormuz supply risk and fresh Iran sanctions are a genuine tailwind, though any de-escalation signal is a real source of two-way risk. FTSE 100 buy dips toward 10,700, stop 10,550, target 11,050 — falling gilt yields and firmer oil are a genuine tailwind, though a hot payrolls print is a real source of two-way risk. Ethereum buy dips toward $2,380, stop $2,220, target $2,850 — falling Fed hike odds are a genuine tailwind, though crypto’s volatility is a real source of two-way risk. XRP buy dips toward $1.32, stop $1.20, target $1.68 — the broader risk-on rally is a genuine tailwind, though large-holder positioning and this week’s pullback are a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the rest of the day is whether this rate-relief, risk-on narrative survives contact with tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls, so size positions accordingly and note that fast-moving Hormuz headlines and geopolitical developments carry genuine event risk that could exaggerate moves in either direction.
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