European Session Report: Oil rebounds and silver sinks 5% as Trump rejects Iran’s Hormuz offer, with the euro and sterling near lows before Lagarde’s 13:30 GMT hearing | Technical Analysis – European Session | 28-09-2026
European Session Report: Oil rebounds and silver sinks 5% as Trump rejects Iran’s Hormuz offer, with the euro and sterling near lows before Lagarde’s 13:30 GMT hearing
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Silver · Crude Oil · FTSE 100 · Ethereum · Solana — technical analysis with conditional reference levels
Nine Stories Driving the European Session
Ranked by expected market impact into the London and New York sessions
Oil rebounds as Trump rejects Iran’s truce offer
WTI is up on Friday’s $92.44 settle and Brent’s front month sits above $105. Reports say Trump expects strikes to resume after the midterms, and a US diesel-export ban is still under discussion.
Iran / HormuzTreasury yields hold near their highest in 19 years
The 10-year touched 5.23% on Friday and futures price roughly a two-in-three chance of an October Fed hike. Friday’s payrolls are the next big test.
Fed Hike BetsEuro holds 1.1350 support ahead of Lagarde at 13:30 GMT
The dollar’s four-day run has stalled near a two-month high. Lagarde addresses the European Parliament after this month’s ECB hike, with French bond spreads a side risk.
ECB SpeakSterling ticks up as BoE officials lean toward a hike
Bailey, Breeden and Lombardelli all say sticky energy costs make holding harder. Markets price about an 80% chance of a November move, though some strategists doubt that much tightening is needed.
BoE RepricingSilver tumbles as gold slides through $4,200
Rising yields and hike bets are hitting non-yielding metals, with spot gold near $4,155, its lowest since early August. Silver now trades well under its 20-day average near $64.74.
Metals RoutFTSE 100 edges up as housebuilders offset a miners’ slide
Barratt Redrow jumped about 13% after the government said it will confirm a first-time-buyer loan scheme in the 28 October Budget, while Fresnillo, Endeavour and Anglo American fell with metals.
UK BudgetFrench debt jitters linger across the euro area
ING flags another round of French bond-spread widening as a downside risk for the euro, and Paris holds short-dated bill auctions today.
OAT Spread RiskEther slips below $2,700 as Bitcoin pulls back
Bitcoin dipped under $84,000 and ETH gave back Friday’s push toward $2,700. Momentum stays constructive above $2,500, with Glamsterdam’s Sepolia testnet due on 6 October.
GlamsterdamSolana eases after a 22% two-week run on record ETF flows
Spot SOL ETFs took in about $188 million last week, the second-highest weekly haul, and stablecoin supply on the network hit a record $17.3 billion.
ETF Inflows| Market | Level | Change | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | ~101.0 | Near 2-mo high | Tested 101 on Fed hike bets and yen weakness |
| US 10-Year Yield | ~5.2% | 19-yr high 5.23% | Friday’s intraday peak; Oct hike odds ~66-68% |
| Gold (spot) | ~$4,155 | -3.05% | Lowest since early August |
| WTI Crude (Nov) | $94.23 | +1.9% | Prev settle 92.44 (Investing.com) |
| Brent (front month) | $105-107 | +1% to +3% | Rolled Dec contract nearer $99 on some feeds |
| EUR/USD | 1.1380 | +0.02% | Prev close 1.1378; YTD low 1.1325 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3245 | +0.15% | Prev close 1.3226; June low 1.3140 |
| Silver (futures) | $61.42 | -5.1% | Prev close 64.71; spot ~61.15 |
| FTSE 100 | 10,739.67 | +0.42% | Prev close 10,695.25 |
| DAX / CAC 40 | Early trade | +0.1% / +0.3% | Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%; Stoxx 600 opened +0.2% |
| Nikkei / Kospi | Asia close | -0.73% / -2.7% | Kospi 6,889.74 on AI-chip weakness |
| Ethereum | $2,652 | -1.3% | Support 2,500; resistance 3,000 |
| Solana | $118.36 | -2.9% | Resistance 123.96; 50-day EMA 101.81 |
| Bitcoin | <$84,000 | ~-1% | Resistance near $85,000 |
Levels are indicative and rounded; cross-source snapshots taken at slightly different moments in the morning session.
Technical Levels for Seven Instruments
Each analysis is conditional and lists a bias, resistance and support levels. Levels are technical references, not forecasts.
EUR/USD
Session Performance
EUR/USD trades near 1.1380, flat on Friday’s 1.1378 close after four straight dollar-up sessions. It sits close to the 1.1325 year-to-date low and well under the 1.1557 200-day average.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
RSI near 28 flags oversold conditions, but MACD is below zero and price is under the 200-day EMA, so FXStreet wants follow-through below 1.1350 before leaning on more weakness. Rallies are likelier to meet sellers near 1.1400 and the 1.1460 supply zone.
Alternative Scenario
A hawkish Lagarde, easing US yields or a fading dollar could lift the pair through 1.1400 toward 1.1460-1.1500. French bond-spread stress would cut the other way.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.1400 | S11.1350 |
| R21.1460 | S21.1325 |
| R31.1500 | S31.1300 |
GBP/USD
Session Performance
GBP/USD trades near 1.3245 in early Europe, up about 0.15% after Friday’s 1.3205 low and a close near 1.3220. It remains close to its weakest level in three months.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Price sits below the 20-day EMA at 1.3387 with RSI near 28, so the bias is down but stretched. UOB sees 1.3190-1.3245 as the near-term range and 1.3295 as strong resistance; a break of 1.3205 exposes the June low at 1.3140.
Alternative Scenario
A close above 1.3295 would suggest 1.3140 is out of reach and open 1.3387, especially if BoE hike pricing (about 80% for November) holds and US yields ease.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.3295 | S11.3205 |
| R21.3387 | S21.3190 |
| R31.3516 | S31.3140 |
Silver (XAG/USD)
Session Performance
Silver futures trade near $61.42, down about 5%, with spot near $61.15. The seven-day slide is around 4.6% and spot gold near $4,155 is at its lowest since early August.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Price is under the 20-day EMA at $64.74 and immediate resistance is $62.26. RSI near 41 leaves room to fall; the support and target levels below are round-number references because no recent swing lows are charted.
Alternative Scenario
Softer US yields, weak payrolls or a de-escalation headline could squeeze silver back through 62.26 toward the 64.74 EMA and 66.00.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R162.26 | S160.00 |
| R264.74 | S258.00 |
| R366.00 | S355.00 |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Session Performance
WTI trades near $94.23, up about 2% on Friday’s $92.44 settle, while Brent’s front month is above $105. WTI lost 7.9% last week on talk of a US diesel-export ban.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Both benchmarks remain roughly 12% below early-September peaks and flows have not actually stopped, with Middle East exports at 12.8 million bpd in September. Holding the 92-93 zone keeps 95 and 100 in play; levels above 95 are round-number references.
Alternative Scenario
Talks resuming this week or a diesel-export ban could send WTI back toward 92.40-90.00, with the roughly 90 low from 22 September the deeper floor.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R195.00 | S192.40 |
| R297.50 | S290.00 |
| R3100.00 | S388.00 |
FTSE 100
Session Performance
The FTSE 100 trades near 10,740, up about 0.4% on Friday’s 10,695.25 close, its second straight weekly gain. December futures were up 29 points near 10,780 shortly after 07:00 GMT.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Friday’s 10,753 intraday high is the first hurdle, then Thursday’s 10,816 close and the 52-week high at 10,989. Holding above 10,695 keeps the bias positive; Friday’s 10,667 low and 10,650 mark the risk zone.
Alternative Scenario
More gold, silver and copper weakness, or a spike in gilt and Treasury yields, could drag the index toward 10,667-10,600.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R110,753 | S110,695 |
| R210,816 | S210,667 |
| R310,989 | S310,600 |
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Session Performance
ETH trades near $2,652, off Friday’s push toward $2,688-2,700 as Bitcoin slips under $84,000. It remains well above its 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, which sit between roughly $2,260 and $2,430.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
RSI near 59 is constructive and MACD has slipped marginally negative, hinting at lost momentum rather than a broken trend. A close back above 2,700 targets 2,786 and the 3,000 barrier; 2,500 is the pivot to defend.
Alternative Scenario
Rising yields and a risk-off tape could push ETH to 2,550-2,500, and a loss of 2,425 (50-day EMA) would change the tone. Glamsterdam’s Sepolia testnet on 6 October is the next catalyst.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R12,700 | S12,550 |
| R22,786 | S22,500 |
| R33,000 | S32,425 |
Solana (SOL/USD)
Session Performance
SOL trades near $118.36, below the $119-120 area it held last week after gaining over 22% in two weeks. Spot ETFs took in about $188 million last week, the second-highest weekly inflow since launch.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Price is far above the 50-day EMA at $101.81 with RSI near 62, and FXStreet flags 123.96 as the barrier that must break for the uptrend to extend. Near-term dip levels are 115 and last week’s 111.70 pivot.
Alternative Scenario
A yield-driven crypto sell-off could send SOL toward 111.70 and the 50-day EMA at 101.81, while a daily close above 123.96 opens 128.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1120.00 | S1115.00 |
| R2123.96 | S2111.70 |
| R3128.00 | S3101.81 |
What Is Moving Europe
Macro, policy and event risk behind the session
Oil Shock Keeps Inflation Fears Alive
DriverTrump rejected Iran’s seven-day truce offer and WTI rebounded to about $94.
ContextIran says its conditions stand: frozen-asset release, oil-sanction relief and an end to the US naval blockade. Houthi and Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia continue, though Middle East exports hit 12.8 million bpd in September.
WatchTalks expected this week and any US diesel-export ban.
Fed Hike Bets and 19-Year Yield Highs
DriverThe FOMC raised rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, and futures give roughly a two-in-three chance of an October follow-up.
ContextThe 10-year touched 5.23% on Friday. Bowman, Cook and Barkin speak today.
WatchUS PCE inflation this week and Friday’s payrolls (about 100K expected versus 162K in August).
ECB: Lagarde in Parliament
DriverLagarde appears before the European Parliament at 13:30 GMT after the ECB’s hike earlier this month.
ContextThe ECB stresses a meeting-by-meeting approach; growth is resilient but energy costs and French spreads are risks. ECB’s Elderson also speaks.
WatchAny hint on further hikes and French OAT spreads.
BoE Hike Pricing Builds
DriverBailey, Breeden and Lombardelli have all flagged rising odds of a hike if energy prices stay high.
ContextMoney markets price about 80% for November, and swaps imply roughly 100bp of tightening over a year, which BBH thinks may be too much. UK consumer confidence is at a two-year high.
WatchGilt yields and the 28 October Budget.
Metals Rout on Yields
DriverGold fell about 3% to near $4,155 and silver about 5%.
ContextHigher real yields and a firm dollar hit non-yielding metals, dragging London miners lower even as housebuilders rallied.
WatchPayrolls, the dollar and the ISM manufacturing data.
Crypto: Bitcoin Stalls, Altcoins Digest
DriverBitcoin slipped below $84,000 after failing near $85,000 and dragged ETH and SOL lower.
ContextSpot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $2.25 billion last week, and Solana ETFs took in about $188 million; Ethereum’s Glamsterdam testnet is due 6 October.
WatchWhether BTC reclaims $85,000 and how altcoins react to yields.
Conditional Outlook
Technical, fundamental and event factors combined into conditional scenarios. No unconditional forecasts are made.
EUR/USD & GBP/USD Outlook
If US yields stay firm and Lagarde is not hawkish, EUR/USD should test 1.1350-1.1325 and GBP/USD should probe 1.3205-1.3140.
If yields ease or the ECB and BoE sound hawkish, EUR/USD could reclaim 1.1400-1.1460 and GBP/USD could retake 1.3295.
Silver & WTI Outlook
If hike bets and the dollar keep rising, silver should extend to 60.00-58.00, while WTI holds 92.40 on Iran headlines.
If yields fall or talks progress, silver could rebound to 62.26-64.74 and WTI could slip to 92.40-90.00.
FTSE 100 Outlook
If housebuilders and energy hold, the FTSE 100 should test 10,753-10,816.
If metals slide continues or yields spike, it could retreat to 10,667-10,600.
Ethereum & Solana Outlook
If Bitcoin holds above $83,000, ETH should retest 2,700-2,786 and SOL should press 120-123.96.
If crypto de-risks on yields, ETH could slip to 2,550-2,500 and SOL to 115-111.70.
Summary
Monday’s European session is an oil, yields and central-bank story, with Lagarde at 13:30 GMT, US PCE and Friday’s payrolls as the swing factors. WTI near $94 and 10-year yields near 5.2% keep the dollar bid: EUR/USD (1.1380) and GBP/USD (1.3245) sit near multi-month lows, silver ($61.42) is sliding with gold, and the FTSE 100 (~10,740) is supported by housebuilders. Ethereum ($2,652) and Solana ($118.36) are consolidating after strong weeks. Key catalysts: Lagarde today, the RBA at 04:30 GMT Tuesday, US PCE and the 2 October payrolls.
European Session FAQ
Answers based on the current session
Why is EUR/USD stuck near 1.1380?
A firm dollar, elevated US yields and Fed hike bets offset expectations of further ECB tightening, and Lagarde’s 13:30 GMT hearing is the next catalyst.
Why is sterling bouncing?
BoE officials have signalled that high energy prices make a rate hold harder, which supports the pound even though the dollar remains firm.
Why is silver down more than 5%?
Rising Treasury yields, firmer Fed hike odds and a gold sell-off pressure non-yielding metals.
Why is oil higher?
Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz truce offer and attacks on Saudi Arabia continue, although supply flows have not stopped.
Why is the FTSE 100 holding up?
Housebuilders surged on the UK Budget loan scheme and utilities gained, offsetting weakness in miners.
