European Session Report: Chip Stocks Lift Europe but Oil and 5.27% US Yields Cap Gains as Euro Tests 1.1350 Support | Technical Analysis – European Session | 29-0-2026
European Session Report: Chip Stocks Lift Europe but Oil and 5.27% US Yields Cap Gains as Euro Tests 1.1350 Support
European shares rose in the morning as chip stocks led on reports of an Anthropic IPO, while oil and bond yields capped gains. The STOXX 600 was up 0.3% to 0.6%, the DAX traded near 25,460 (+0.3%) and Legrand jumped about 6%. Brent December traded near $99.4 (November near $107), EUR/USD slipped to 1.1350, GBP/USD held near 1.3238, silver stayed below $61 and gold traded near $4,126.
The main driver remains the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps energy prices and inflation fears elevated and supports bets on further Fed tightening, with the US 10-year yield near 5.25% after touching 5.27%. Traders now watch Eurozone sentiment data, ECB speakers including Lagarde, US JOLTS and consumer confidence, and Friday’s Eurozone flash inflation (about 3.6-3.7% expected) and US payrolls.
Snapshot: European session, 29 September 2026 (~07:00-08:30 GMT, latest available prints)Top Stories Moving the Market
Oil rises on conflicting US-Iran signals as Qatari mediators push new ideas
Brent December gained 1.6% to $99.42 (from $97.83) at 0659 GMT while the expiring November contract trades near $107. Iran says Washington’s final reply could come Tuesday; a diesel export ban is also under discussion.
Euro slips back to its late-July low as Lagarde urges a measured response
Lagarde said Monday there is no evidence yet of energy prices feeding into wages, pushing back on bets for faster ECB hikes. Traders price nearly four Fed hikes over 12 months, keeping the dollar bid.
European tech leads on Anthropic IPO buzz; oil and yields cap gains
The STOXX 600 was up 0.3% at 640.28 at 0719 GMT and as much as 0.6% on the latest Investing.com reading, with tech about 1.6% higher. Legrand jumped about 6% on higher targets; September is on track for a first monthly loss in six months.
Treasury yields hold near their highest since 2007
The 10-year briefly pushed above 5.27% and markets price about a 70% chance of an October Fed hike. Gold sits near $4,126 after Monday’s slide, while silver is under $61.
Technical Summary
EUR/USD
FX · Dollar bid on yields; euro near two-month lowThe pair is testing the 1.1350-1.1353 support zone, level with the late-July low, and trades below all major moving averages. A sustained break opens the year-to-date low near 1.1325 and 1.1306; Scotiabank sees firmer support around 1.1325-1.1350. A reclaim of 1.1386 and then 1.1410 would ease pressure, with a 4.1bn euro option expiry at 1.1400.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.1386 | S11.1350 |
| R21.1410 | S21.1325 |
| R31.1450 | S31.1306 |
GBP/USD
FX · Sterling capped by firm dollar; BoE hike bets buildCable trades below its 100- and 200-day averages. Support at 1.3205 has held so far while 1.3250 is the first hurdle; markets price about an 85% chance of a BoE hike in November, which limits deeper losses. A close above 1.3300, where a 494m pound option expires, would challenge the bearish tilt.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.3250 | S11.3205 |
| R21.3300 | S21.3160 |
| R31.3350 | S31.3110 |
Silver (XAG/USD)
Metals · Extends Monday slide as yields and dollar riseSilver fell more than 4% on Monday and remains below its 20-day EMA near $64.30, with the RSI near 38. Hawkish Fed bets (TD sees hikes in October and January) keep pressure on non-yielding metals. The $60 level is the immediate cushion, then the 3 August low at $56.57.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$62.50 | S1$60.00 |
| R2$64.30 | S2$58.50 |
| R3$66.00 | S3$56.57 |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Energy · Hormuz stalemate keeps supply fears aliveWTI is supported by the lack of progress in US-Iran talks and Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal, though Middle East exports have recovered to about 12.8m bpd. A hold above $93 keeps $95.50 in view; any breakthrough headline could quickly reverse the move toward $91. Brent December is near $99.4 and expiring November near $107.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$95.50 | S1$92.50 |
| R2$97.00 | S2$91.00 |
| R3$98.50 | S3$89.50 |
DAX 40
Equities · Tech-led bounce fights oil and bond yieldsThe index rebounds from Monday’s 0.13% dip as tech leads on Anthropic IPO reports (TecDAX about +0.7%); STMicro, ASML and BE Semiconductor rose up to 2.4%. Rising yields compress valuations, so gains are fragile. A hold above 25,300 keeps 25,550 and 25,650 in view; a loss of 25,250 would signal renewed yield pressure.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R125,500 | S125,300 |
| R225,650 | S225,150 |
| R325,800 | S325,000 |
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Crypto · Consolidating below $2,700 in a descending channelETH keeps making lower highs along a descending trendline near $2,700 after rejecting $2,800. A daily close below $2,610 would expose $2,550-$2,580; a breakout above $2,730 would invalidate the channel and reopen $2,800. Rising Treasury yields remain a headwind for crypto.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$2,700 | S1$2,610 |
| R2$2,730 | S2$2,580 |
| R3$2,800 | S3$2,550 |
BNB (BNB/USD)
Crypto · Coiling in a tight range under resistanceBNB is compressing near $768 with momentum stalled and futures open interest close to its 30-day high. A break above $776.66 targets $784.87 and then $807, the key resistance that has rejected price repeatedly. Support sits at $758-$766, then $740; a loss of $758 would put the range low in play.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$776.66 | S1$758 |
| R2$784.87 | S2$740 |
| R3$807 | S3$720 |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- Eurozone sentiment (09:00 GMT). Final consumer confidence and the Economic Sentiment Indicator; the flash reading was -16.5, and one early read points to mixed results. Weak data would keep EUR/USD pinned near 1.1350.
- ECB speakers incl. Lagarde (afternoon). Any hint that energy-driven inflation forces a more hawkish stance could support the euro; a cautious tone points to 1.1326.
- US data (13:00-14:00 GMT). Case-Shiller, JOLTS (forecast 7.23M vs 7.271M) and CB Consumer Confidence (forecast 90.1), plus Fed speakers; strong data lifts yields, hitting silver, ETH and the DAX.
- US-Iran talks via Qatar. A breakthrough could pull Brent back toward $100 and lift equities; a stalemate keeps WTI above $93 and yields elevated.
- Ahead: Friday. Eurozone flash HICP (about 3.6-3.7% expected) and US non-farm payrolls will shape ECB and Fed hike bets.
What Is Moving the Market
Oil, Hormuz and inflation
Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and floated a diesel export ban. With Brent above $100, Europe’s exposure to the energy channel keeps inflation fears and rate-hike bets alive.
Bond rout and Fed hikes
The US 10-year yield touched a fresh multi-year high near 5.27% and markets price about a 70% chance of a Fed hike in October. Higher discount rates are squeezing equities, gold, silver and crypto.
ECB and euro
Lagarde said a measured response remains appropriate with no evidence yet of energy costs feeding wages. With traders pricing almost four Fed hikes in 12 months, EUR/USD is at its late-July low and vulnerable below 1.1350.
Risk assets and tech
European tech rallied about 1.6% after reports of an Anthropic listing, lifting ASML, STMicro and Schneider, and Nvidia announced a record $150bn buyback. Bitcoin slipped about 2% while Ethereum was little changed.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast vs. Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00-08:00 | EU | European cash equity opens (DAX, STOXX 600) | Session |
| 09:00 | EU | Economic Sentiment and final Consumer Confidence (Sep) | Flash consumer confidence -16.5 vs -15.5 prev |
| Afternoon | EU | ECB speakers including President Lagarde | No forecast; tone on further hikes |
| Session | CA | BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle speaks | No forecast; CAD extends losses |
| ~13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI (Jul, YoY) | Forecast 2.20% vs Prev 2.10% |
| ~14:00 | US | JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) | Forecast 7.23M vs Prev 7.271M |
| ~14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) | Forecast 90.1 vs Prev 89.4 |
| Session | US | Fed speakers: Williams, Waller, Bowman, Barr | No forecast; tone on further hikes |
| Fri | EU/US | Eurozone flash HICP and US non-farm payrolls | HICP about 3.6-3.7% expected vs 3.2%; NFP key for Fed |
Summary
Tuesday’s European session is defined by a tech-led bounce (DAX near 25,460) that oil and 5.25%+ US yields keep in check. EUR/USD tests 1.1350 and GBP/USD sits near 1.3238 under a firm dollar, while silver trades near $60.6, WTI near $94, Ethereum near $2,670 and BNB near $768. Traders should watch Eurozone sentiment, Lagarde and other ECB speakers, US JOLTS and consumer confidence, and any headline from the US-Iran talks.
FAQ
Q:Why is EUR/USD testing 1.1350?
A:A firm dollar backed by 10-year Treasury yields near 5.25% and about 70% odds of an October Fed hike outweigh the ECB’s cautious stance. Lagarde also pushed back on faster hikes. A sustained break under 1.1350 opens 1.1325 and 1.1306.
Q:Why are European stocks struggling to rally?
A:Brent between $99 and $107 (December vs November contract) and multi-year high bond yields raise inflation fears and discount rates. Chip stocks (on Anthropic IPO reports) and Legrand gave the DAX and STOXX 600 a lift, but gains remain limited.
Q:Why is silver falling?
A:Silver lost more than 4% on Monday as yields and the dollar rose, and it trades near $60.6. Non-yielding metals suffer when rate-hike expectations rise; $60 and $56.57 are the key supports.
Q:What could move crude oil today?
A:Headlines from the Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks, Hormuz shipping flows and any US diesel export ban decision. Iran expects a US reply on Tuesday. A deal could pull Brent December below $97, while a stalemate keeps WTI above $93.
Q:How are ETH and BNB positioned?
A:Ethereum consolidates under $2,700 with $2,610 as key support, while BNB coils near $768 below $776.66 resistance. Both remain sensitive to US yields and Bitcoin dominance.
