European Session Report: Stocks Open Higher as Yields Ease, Euro Near July Lows Ahead of German CPI and US PCE | Technical Analysis – European Session | 30-09-2026
European Session Report: Stocks Open Higher as Yields Ease, Euro Near July Lows Ahead of German CPI and US PCE
European equities opened firmer on Wednesday as US 10-year yields eased to about 5.20% from an overnight peak near 5.29%. The Eurostoxx gained about 0.6%, the DAX 0.8%, the CAC 40 0.4% and the FTSE 0.8%, though the bond market remains the key risk. The euro sits near $1.1353, close to its weakest since July, with September on course to be a heavy losing month against a dollar index holding around 101.2-101.5.
Oil steadied after its largest drop in over a week, with WTI near $90.4 and Brent near $96, as Saudi pipeline flows bypassing Hormuz and a recovery in Gulf exports offset uncertainty over the US response to Iran’s Hormuz proposal. Gold is holding near $4,200 and silver near $61 after breaking $63. Today’s focus: German CPI, US ADP, core PCE and final Q2 GDP, the EIA inventory report, then Micron results after the US close and Friday’s payrolls.
Snapshot: European session, 30 September 2026 (~07:30-08:30 GMT / 13:00-14:00 IST / 08:30-09:30 CEST)Top Stories Moving the Market
European stocks open higher as Treasury yields retreat from recent highs
DAX +0.8%, FTSE +0.8%, IBEX +0.8%, FTSE MIB +0.7% and CAC 40 +0.4%. S&P futures are up about 0.3%. The CAC closed Tuesday at 8,035.87 after French debt hit 119% of GDP and taxes on infrastructure operators were floated.
Euro hovers near its lowest since late July with German CPI due
Economic sentiment in the euro area slipped to 97.9 in September as inflation expectations rose. German CPI was 2.9% in August and is expected to print back above 3%; core, at 2.4%, is the number for the ECB.
Oil steadies as Middle East supply recovers and Iran awaits a US reply on Hormuz
WTI closed Europe on Tuesday near $91.4 and Brent near $96.8, then dipped toward $88.6 before rebounding. Saudi flows via a pipeline avoiding Hormuz and Gulf exports near pre-war levels weigh, while talks through mediators keep headline risk high.
Hawkish Fed speakers and weak US confidence collide with record-high long yields
Conference Board confidence fell to 81.9 versus about 89 expected and JOLTS openings slipped to 7.08M. Williams backs one more hike late this year with no urgency, while Barr and Goolsbee leaned hawkish; October odds are near a toss-up.
Technical Summary
EUR/CHF
FX · Euro firm versus the franc near its yearly highs
The cross trades within about 1.5 pips of its 52-week high (0.9479) as the ECB’s tightening bias contrasts with the SNB’s 0% rate, and the euro has held above its 50-day average near 0.9370. The franc stays the safe-haven risk: a collapse in US-Iran talks or a yields shock could send the pair back toward 0.9395. Holding 0.9425 keeps 0.9480 and 0.9520 in play; a close under 0.9400 cancels the idea.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R10.9480 | S10.9425 |
| R20.9520 | S20.9395 |
| R30.9560 | S30.9355 |
GBP/JPY
FX · Yen bid on quarter-end flows and intervention warnings
The pair is pressing its 30-day low near 207.50 after falling from 216.50 a month ago, as Japanese half-year-end flows and warnings from Tokyo support the yen. Sterling is getting little help: GBP/USD slipped to a 1.3221 low on Tuesday, and UK Q2 GDP growth of 0.5% has not offset the stronger dollar. Rallies into 209.00 are the fade area; a break under 207.50 opens 206.80, while a close above 209.90 would end the bearish view.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1209.00 | S1207.50 |
| R2209.90 | S2206.80 |
| R3210.80 | S3205.50 |
Silver (XAG/USD)
Metals · Broken $63 support caps rebounds; hike bets and strong dollar weigh
Silver lost more than 5% on Monday after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal, breaking the key $63.00 support, and has since stabilised around $61-62 (now near $60.99). Hawkish Fed rhetoric, record-high long yields and a firmer dollar keep the metal heavy, though a diplomatic breakthrough that eases rate-hike bets would help it. Sellers should lean on $62-63 (broken support, now resistance) toward $55; a daily close above $63.60 would signal the pullback is ending.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$62.50 | S1$60.50 |
| R2$63.00 | S2$60.00 |
| R3$64.30 | S3$58.00 |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Energy · Supply recovery versus stalled US-Iran diplomacy
WTI has slid from $94.60 on Tuesday morning to around $90 (after a dip near $88.6) as reports show Middle East supply recovering toward pre-war levels and Saudi Arabia routing flows around Hormuz. Iran still expects a US reply to its amended proposal, so headline gaps of $3-4 remain possible both ways, and today’s EIA inventory data adds volatility. Rallies into $91-92 are the fade area; a move above $94.60 would reopen the $100 Brent zone.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$91.40 | S1$88.00 |
| R2$92.60 | S2$86.00 |
| R3$94.60 | S3$84.00 |
CAC 40
Indices · Yields, French debt worries and Micron tonight
The index reversed from a positive start on Tuesday to close down 0.53% in an 8,024-8,107 range, pressured by France’s debt at a record 119% of GDP, a 10-year OAT near 4.79% and rumoured taxes on airport and motorway operators. Easing US yields give a bounce today, but it stays rate-sensitive; Legrand (+6.1% Tuesday) led the gainers. A hold above 8,024 targets the 8,107 range high; a break of 7,995 would negate the rebound.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R18,107 | S18,024 |
| R28,150 | S27,995 |
| R38,220 | S37,900 |
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Crypto · Range-bound as momentum fades below channel resistance
ETH has traded between roughly $2,600 and $2,800 since 20 September and is holding near the middle of that range, with Bitcoin also near the bottom of its $82,400-$84,800 range. Record-high long yields and a strong dollar limit risk appetite, though ETH has still outperformed Bitcoin over the past three months. A sustained break of $2,600 exposes $2,540; a daily close above $2,800 ends the bearish view. Levels beyond $2,600 and $2,800 are indicative.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$2,720 | S1$2,600 |
| R2$2,800 | S2$2,540 |
| R3$2,880 | S3$2,450 |
Solana (SOL/USD)
Crypto · Holding most of a 68% two-month rally
SOL is up about 68% in two months and close to flat for 2026, trading near $118.5 after touching roughly $124 on 27 September and slipping about 3% on Monday. It has outperformed ETH by about 20% over the past month, but softer BTC and ETH momentum could drag it toward $113 support first. Holding $113 keeps $124 and $130 in play; a close under $112 would signal the rally is fading. Levels above $124 are indicative.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1$124 | S1$113 |
| R2$130 | S2$108 |
| R3$138 | S3$100 |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- German CPI, then US PCE and GDP. German inflation is expected back above 3% (core was 2.4%); in the US, consensus is core PCE 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y, headline 3.7% y/y and final Q2 GDP 1.5%. A hot core print would revive October Fed-hike bets and pressure silver, crypto and equities.
- US labour and oil data. ADP is expected near 73K, Chicago PMI near 51.2, and the EIA inventory report lands in the US morning; a large crude draw could lift WTI toward $91-92.
- Micron and tech. Results after the US close (16:00 ET) set the tone for semiconductors, followed by ISM manufacturing on Thursday and non-farm payrolls on Friday.
- Iran and Hormuz. A US reply to Tehran’s amended proposal could move oil, silver and yields quickly; a breakdown would put WTI back above $92 and Brent near $100.
What Is Moving the Market
Bond rout and Fed hikes
The US 10-year eased to about 5.20% from a 5.29% overnight peak, and the 30-year stays near 5.6%, the highest in over two decades. Williams sees one more hike late this year, while Barr and Goolsbee sounded more hawkish, leaving the dollar index near 101.2-101.5.
Euro, ECB and French debt
The euro slipped to about $1.1334 on Tuesday, a low since late July. Euro-area sentiment fell while inflation expectations rose, France’s debt reached 119% of GDP, and the French 10-year yield rose to about 4.79%, with Spanish inflation near 5%.
Oil, Iran and supply
Oil fell as Saudi flows bypassing Hormuz and a recovery in Middle East exports offset the lack of a deal. Trump rejected Iran’s first proposal at the weekend but talks continue through mediators, and Iran expects a US response today.
UK data and sterling
UK Q2 GDP came in at 0.5% with household income up 1.0% and business investment up 5.2%. The BoE held at 3.75% on 17 September; sterling still trails a firm dollar, and GBP/JPY is pinned by the yen’s quarter-end strength.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast vs. Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight | CN | Official Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | Actual 50.1, first expansion since June |
| Morning | UK | Q2 GDP (final) | Actual 0.5% growth; household income +1.0% |
| Morning | EU | Economic Sentiment (Sep) | Actual 97.9; inflation expectations higher |
| Session | DE | CPI flash (Sep) and labour data | Aug 2.9% y/y; expected above 3% |
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment (Sep) | Fcst 73K (prev 38K) |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE (Aug), PCE, final Q2 GDP | Core fcst 3.4% y/y (prev 3.3%); PCE 3.7%; GDP 1.5% |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI (Sep) | Fcst 51.2 (prev 47.1) |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | Prev +2.97M; API showed +1.02M |
| Session | US | Fed speakers (Barkin, Cook, Kashkari) | Hawkish tone expected after Tuesday’s comments |
| 20:00 | US | Micron fiscal Q4 results | Read-across for global chip stocks |
| Thu-Fri | US | ISM Manufacturing; non-farm payrolls | Key for October Fed-hike odds |
Summary
European stocks opened higher as US yields eased, but the euro near $1.1353 and record-high long yields keep the tone cautious. EUR/CHF trades near 0.9464, GBP/JPY near 207.95, silver near $60.99, WTI near $90.39, the CAC 40 near 8,068, Ethereum near $2,676.09 and Solana near $118.53. Watch German CPI, US core PCE, Micron results, the US reply to Iran on Hormuz and Friday’s payrolls.
FAQ
Q:Why are European stocks higher today?
A:US Treasury yields eased to about 5.20% from an overnight high near 5.29%, giving equities relief after recent pressure from borrowing costs. Gains are cautious because yields could rise again.
Q:Why is the euro near its lowest since July?
A:Hawkish Fed comments, expectations of further US tightening and month-end dollar flows lifted the dollar index to about 101.5, while euro-area sentiment weakened.
Q:What is pushing oil lower?
A:Reports that Middle East supply is recovering toward pre-war levels and Saudi flows avoiding Hormuz, partly offset by the lack of a US-Iran deal.
Q:What could move silver and crypto next?
A:US core PCE, Fed speakers and the US reply to Iran. A hot PCE print would lift hike bets and pressure both; a diplomatic breakthrough would ease yields.
